466
FXUS61 KRLX 080450
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1250 AM EDT Tue Sep 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
06Z aviation discussion update.

As of 648 PM Labor Day...

A few isolated and very light convective showers have developed
in/near our far southern zones in southwest Virginia along a
modest ribbon of instability. Given such, have inserted a
mention for isolated showers into the forecast over the next
hour or two across our far southwest WV and VA zones. The rest
of the forecast remains on track.

As of 205 PM Labor Day...

The forecast for this week remains on track, with little change
necessitated with the afternoon package. A low risk for flash
flooding remains intact area-wide Wednesday night into early
Friday morning as a cold front moves across the region.

18Z aviation discussion updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry and warm weather remains forecast into Wednesday afternoon,
with some valley fog each morning through Wednesday.

2) Heavy showers and thunderstorms are forecast to arrive Wednesday
night into early Friday morning, with localized flash flooding
possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

In the mid/upper-levels, an Omega Block exists across the U.S., with
the CWA beneath the inflection point of the easternmost closed low
over the Canadian Maritimes and the subtropical ridge centered in
the central Great Plains. Large-scale subsidence will persist across
the region through Wednesday, with the mid-level warm nose becoming
even more-pronounced Tuesday as the center of the subtropical ridge
sloshes eastward following the collapse of the Omega Block. High
temperatures for this afternoon will remain slightly above normal,
with highs breaching 90 degrees for some locales across the lowlands
Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon. The CWA will remain bereft of PoPs
otherwise through Wednesday afternoon, with some bouts of valley fog
during the predawn hours Tuesday and Wednesday amidst light winds.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Active weather continues to be forecast late Wednesday night into
Friday morning as a cold front approaches the region. The collapse
of the Omega Block will have been induced by the westernmost
shortwave trough currently digging into the Glacier Country, with
said feature ejecting eastward and over the Great Lakes region by
Thursday while remaining fairly progressive. Global NWP guidance has
been in agreement with the base of the trough remaining north of the
CWA, thereby placing the CWA beneath the right-entrance region to
the intensifying, positively-tilted jetlets aloft. The advection of
a tall, skinny EML will be driven by modest geopotential height
falls, although CAPE values are forecast to be <1,500 J/kg amidst
substantial cloud debris, which would limit the degree of diabatic
heating. Orthogonally-oriented shear vectors throughout the cloud-
bearing layer relative to the Appalachian Mountains will enhance the
potential for upslope showers and thunderstorms Thursday, with PWATs
climbing between 2-3 standard deviations above the climatological
mean. However, the deep- and cloud-layer shear vectors will also
become aligned with the cold front as it attains a southerly
component to its movement by Thursday afternoon, thereby posing a
risk for training storms within the favorable upslope flow regime.

Localized flash flooding will be possible across portions of the CWA
Thursday, especially with any portions of the linear convection that
can become organized. Water-loaded cores may pose a risk for locally
strong wind gusts, but the severe weather risk is low Thursday. PoPs
will gradually wane from northwest-to-southeast late Thursday night
into early Friday morning as the cold front sags southward and its
axis of dilatation becomes increasingly divergent in the wake of the
ejecting shortwave trough. That is, the passage of this cold front
will do little to scour out the subtropical moisture that will have
been intact days prior. The cold front is forecast to stall south of
the CWA this weekend while continuing to decay, with off-and-on PoPs
lasting throughout the upcoming weekend as a series of smaller-scale
perturbations eject over the warm, and somewhat recycled, moist
airmass as a weak surface high settles into the region. Muggy and
warm conditions are also forecast to continue into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Patchy dense fog may form in some of the river valleys before
sunrise this morning; however, much like last night, winds just
above the surface should suppress development at most
terminals. Generally VFR conditions are then expected during the
day, although some lower clouds could prompt brief MVFR
ceilings over the mountains.

Calm to light surface flow should veer from east to southeast
by morning, then turns southerly and remains light throughout
the day.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium tonight with fog, otherwise high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog extent, density and timing could vary
overnight. Brief MVFR cigs could occur at KBKW later today.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                        TUE 09/08/26
UTC 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
EDT 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR conditions are possible within river valley fog Wednesday
morning, primarily across eastern/southern WV and southwest VA.
IFR is also possible with showers/storms late Wednesday night
into early Friday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...GW/Sincavage
AVIATION...20