616
FXUS61 KRLX 161738
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
138 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
136 PM Update...
Severe thunderstorm watch issued for all of our SE Ohio
counties and a bulk of our West Virginia counties until 8 PM
tonight. ~18z aviation discussion update.

1204 PM Update...
Updates on flash flooding and severe potential for today and
tonight.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Flash flooding and severe weather are expected today with a
lingering, persistent active weather pattern. Repeated rounds of
heavy rainfall from training showers and thunderstorms could
rapidly lead to flash flooding, especially areas that are
already saturated and inundated.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
136 PM Update...

A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect in til 8 PM tonight.
This is for all of our southeastern Ohio and a majority of our
West Virginia counties, basically the I-64 corridor and north.
Lincoln, Boone, and Raleigh are also included. Seeing generous
convection forming across our western forecast area with
downburst wind gusts reaching the 40-50 mph range as reported by
a few ASOS sites. Expecting these storms to hold together and
even strengthen as they traverse the area ESEward.

The best wind dynamics will be situated across SE`rn Ohio and
northern West Virginia (especially the US-50 corridor) where
better wind shear (20-40 knots) is present. Rapid clearing is
occurring over the central lowlands and coalfields which will
build better instability through the afternoon. This will be
another area to watch later this afternoon and evening.

1204 PM Update...
Flash flooding concerns continue through tonight. Additional
rounds of showers and thunderstorms will move across the area
this afternoon and evening leading to additional or worsening
flooding. ~12z HRRR shows the next round forming to our west in
Ohio and subsequently moving west to east across our area later
this afternoon and evening. The ~12z NAM is concerning as it
shows the next round forming over Ohio and then tracking across
our area between 1 PM and 3 PM, offering only a small break
between our most recent deluge. It then shows another hefty
round later this evening through tonight.

Some of these storms could be on the strong to severe side
containing damaging wind gusts and of course heavy downpours. CAPE
is expected to be between 2,500 and 3,500 J/kg if timely clearing
occurs this afternoon. This is more than sufficient to spawn
widespread showers and thunderstorms, with scattered strong to
severe storms being a possibility.

There is the chance for a tornado or two to occur with any more
organized, clear-air storms. The main driver for this threat would
be if an additional surface low forms along the stationary front
currently bisecting the area. This would cause a backing in the wind
field increasing wind shear from 20-30 knots to at least 40-60
knots. Otherwise, damaging downburst winds and the heavy rainfall
will be the main concerns.

Current guidance suggests that at least another 1-2 inches of
rainfall will fall across the area through tonight. Locally higher
amounts between 3-5 inches could be possible somewhere in Ohio or
central/northern WV if the NAM solution is right. A flood watch goes
until 8 AM Monday to cover the likely additional flash flooding
later this afternoon through tonight. A rare moderate risk
(level 3/4) for excessive rainfall spans the bulk of WV with the
rest of the area in a slight risk (level 2/4).

Showers and thunderstorms are expected again for Monday, but the
severe threat and primary heavy rain threat shifts south of our
area as a cold front crosses. A marginal risk (level 1/4) for
excessive rainfall is still in place across our area for Monday
with a marginal risk (level 1/5) for severe weather covers our
VA and far southern WV counties.

A bit of a reprieve is expected behind this front for Tuesday
and Wednesday until another front crosses Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

VFR and MVFR conditions are being reported across the area with
SCT to BKN CIGs between 1,000 and 9,000 feet AGL. Scattered to
numerous SH and TS expected this afternoon and tonight
containing damaging winds, heavy downpours, and a tornado or
two being possible.

Showers and storms continue tonight with widespread MVFR, IFR,
LIFR conditions expected with and after the activity moves out.
Instances of low stratus and river fog are likely behind these
showers and thunderstorms.

Winds will be mostly SW`rly and breezy this afternoon gusting
between 15 and 20 knots. Winds will be erratic and gusty in and
near any thunderstorms with damaging gusts possible with any
severe storms. Light and SW`rly winds expected tonight.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and location of showers and
thunderstorms will vary this afternoon and evening.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
EDT 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
Chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms on Monday
leading to possible IFR CIGs/VIS. IFR or lower possible in
valley fog and low stratus Monday night and Tuesday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch through Monday morning for WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>032-034-039-040-515>526.
OH...Flood Watch through Monday morning for OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...Flood Watch through Monday morning for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LTC
AVIATION...LTC