128
FXUS61 KRLX 012339
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
739 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather opens up the month of September amid high
pressure. The chance for showers and thunderstorms increases
mid-week ahead of a cold front, which crosses Thursday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1215 PM Monday...

The synoptic pattern continues to be dominated by a sprawling
surface high pressure system anchored over the eastern third of the
nation. This feature is providing an extended period of pleasant,
late-summer weather with generally clear skies, low humidity, and
cooler than average temperatures. These tranquil conditions will
prevail through mid week as the high remains firmly in control.

On the other hand, models show a broad mid to upper level low
pressure system rotating over PA/WV/OH. An embedded shortwave could
bring a shot of vorticity across NE Kentucky and extreme southern WV
Tuesday afternoon and evening. With dewpoints in the 50s, only
isolated showers or thunderstorms can be expected. However,
probabilities of precipitation and confidence run low at this time.

Temperatures should drop to near normal values tonight, generally
into the low to mid 50s across the lowlands, ranging into the mid to
low 40s northeast mountains. Near normal highs are anticipated for
Tuesday, generally in the lower 80s across the lowlands, ranging
into the lower 60s northeast mountains.

Adjusted down dewpoints for Tuesday, during the afternoon/mixing
hours using the NBM 10th percentile.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1215 PM Monday...

The aforementioned closed upper-level low pressure system centered
over the PA/OH/WV region, will meander slowly eastward through mid-
week. By Wednesday, models show this upper low reflecting a weak
surface trough west of our area. This will likely result in an
increase in dewpoints, and in perhaps some isolated showers
nearby the surface reflection trough, where instability will be
higher, but significant impacts are not anticipated for our
forecast area on Wednesday.

By Thursday, a stronger and more progressive upper-level shortwave
will eject out of the main upper low and track southeastward. This
feature will drive a surface cold front toward the region late
Thursday. The environment ahead of this front is forecast to become
dynamically unstable and supportive of organized convection.
However, moisture profiles do not look impressive.

Progged soundings for Thursday afternoon show SBCAPE values climbing
to around 1800 J/kg, indicating marginal instability for robust
updrafts. This, coupled with strong deep-layered shear about 40-50
knots, may be adequate for organized storm modes, including
supercells.

However, there is one limiting factor that introduces some uncertainty.
Forecast Precipitable Water (PWAT) values are less than 1.5 inches.
While adequate for showers and thunderstorms, this is not an
overly moist airmass. This may act to limit the coverage and
longevity of the convection. We could see strong to severe
storms fire along the front, but they may struggle to remain
surface-based or could be more isolated in nature due to the
marginal moisture. The main threat remains strong to damaging
winds, but we will continue to monitor trends as the event gets
closer.

Below normal temperatures are anticipated Wednesday into the
weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1215 PM Monday...

Behind the front, cooler airmass filters in, providing slightly
below normal temperatures by the end of the week. Yet another
reinforcing cold front crosses Saturday, bringing pleasant
conditions under mostly clear skies through the weekend.

Central guidance reflects little if any precipitation with this
system, with the second front reinforcing the dry airmass across
the area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 740 PM Monday...

Fair weather cumulus from the afternoon will continue to
diminish over the next few hours as the sun sets for the day.
Another radiational cooling night will yield IFR conditions from
river valley fog at EKN late tonight into Tuesday morning. Fog
erosion will then take place shortly after daybreak.

Another mostly quiet day is on tap for Tuesday under the guise
of nearby high pressure. A few late afternoon showers and storms
could drift in from Kentucky, but confidence is low that storms
will reach any TAF site before the loss of daytime heating
Tuesday evening.

Winds will be light throughout the period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of fog at EKN overnight
tonight may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            TUE 09/02/25
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR conditions possible in heavier showers and storms within an
encroaching cold front Thursday. IFR possible in fog and
stratus early Friday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...MEK