703
FXUS61 KRLX 250722
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
322 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Warmer today. Chance for showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon and with a cold front Wednesday. Chances of showers
and thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday with another cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 245 AM Tuesday...

Very comfortable temperatures this morning with lower humidity
as high pressure remains overhead. These temperatures will be a
bit on the cooler side and below normal for this time of year.
Expecting lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s for the lowlands
and 50s in the mountains. Dense river valley fog will likely
form this morning as winds are going calm and temperatures fall
under clear skies. Models however are starting to suggest this
activity will be confined to the mountain valleys.

Temperatures today look to rise back above normal with this
surface high in place and southwesterly flow picking up after
sunrise. Highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s will be common
across the lowlands; while the mountains will range anywhere
from the mid 70s to the high 80s.

While the forecast area will remain dry through the morning,
a complex of storms over the Upper Midwest associated with a
southward moving disturbance will approach the area by
afternoon. Models are starting to hone in on increasing chances
for some showers and thunderstorms later this morning/early
afternoon as the energy approaches. This activity looks to be
mostly confined to southeastern Ohio.

The main question is reserved for late this afternoon and into
the evening. CAMs are starting to suggest that the
aforementioned complex of storms will hold together as it moves
southward across Ohio. High pressure at the surface will allow a
bit of defense providing a slight cap, even as it shifts off
eastward, but MLCAPE values look to be between 1,000 and 2,000
J/Kg during peak heating. If the cap is lost and no showers
early today disrupt the environment, then thunderstorms (a few
could be severe) will be more of possibility later this
afternoon and evening.

The main threats with any storms that form will be damaging
winds and small hail. SPC has hoisted a marginal risk for
severe weather this afternoon for a part of southeastern Ohio
which includes Perry and Vinton counties, as well as portions of
Athens, Jackson and Morgan.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 225 AM Tuesday...

A cold front and an upper level trough will bring showers and
thunderstorms for Wednesday into Wednesday night. Models still
differ on the handling of prefrontal energy and precipitation.
This prefrontal convection could be critical to whether enough
energy builds for severe weather. MesoNAM soundings showing many
soundings with over 2000 effective layer CAPE with some dry air
in the mid levels and freezing levels of 13000 to 13500. This
indicates a good potential for damaging winds and large hail, if
the prefrontal energy allows for sufficient heating.

Some models indicate enough remaining moisture for scattered
showers and thunderstorms in the mountains on Thursday, while
others indicate a drier solution. Will keep some small mountain
POPs, with a bit better chances in Virginia. More seasonable
temperatures will return for Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 225 AM Tuesday...

With a high pressure system shifting off to the east on Friday,
temperatures will again climb back above normal for this time of
year. A few mountain showers and thunderstorms are once again
possible, although most of the region will remain dry.

A southerly wind flow and an approaching cold front will
increase the chances of showers and thunderstorms area wide on
Saturday. Models have a cold front pushing through Saturday
night or Sunday, with continued differences in timing between
the models.

More seasonable air can once again be expected on Monday behind
the cold front. Once again, some models indicate enough
remaining moisture for scattered showers and thunderstorms in
the mountains on Monday, while others indicate a drier
solution.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 120 AM Tuesday...

High pressure nearby keeping the area dry and mostly clear
through the morning until early afternoon. Most locations have
already decoupled this morning as winds are calm at most
locations. River valley fog is expected to form this morning and
have included MVFR/IFR restrictions at most sites. Models
however are starting to back off on coverage, keeping it
confined to the mountains versus across all of the river
valleys.

VFR takes back over by ~12-13Z this morning under clear skies.
There is a chance for some showers and storms this afternoon
with a passing disturbance, but this looks to remain confined
to southeastern Ohio until tonight into Wednesday morning.

Winds will be mostly calm this morning, picking up  out of the
southwest at a light pace after sunrise. Could be breezy at
times mid-morning with mixing.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, location and intensity of fog may
vary form forecast. Showers and thunderstorms could be more
numerous and cover more locations than advertised this
afternoon.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         TUE 06/25/24
UTC 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
EDT 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
Brief IFR possible with thunderstorms Wednesday into Wednesday
night, and again on Saturday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RPY/LTC
NEAR TERM...LTC
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...LTC