Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
318 FXUS61 KRLX 061722 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 122 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... At 118 PM... Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued across portions of southeast Ohio and northern West Virginia. Updated 18Z Aviation Discussion && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Severe storms will be possible this afternoon and evening across portions of northern West Virginia and southeast Ohio. Damaging winds will be the most likely threat, but hail and a tornado also cannot be ruled out. 2) Unsettled weather will continue into the new week with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A slow-moving cold front over the Great Lakes, a 500-mb shortwave, and building heat and humidity will trigger showers and thunderstorms today. The greatest chances of these storms will be located across southeast Ohio, where the largest amounts of forcing and instability will be located. Models are in fairly strong agreement with a zone of 1,000 J/kg of MLCAPE across southeast Ohio this afternoon with a zone of 70 degree dew points. Thunderstorms will also track eastward into northern West Virginia during the late afternoon and evening. At the time of this writing, a Mesoscale Convective System can be seen tracking eastward across northeast Indiana. It`s holding together fairly well as it tracks east, and it is expected to reach portions of southeast Ohio and northern West Virginia late this afternoon (1 PM to 5 PM). The main threats with this will be damaging wind gusts and perhaps some hail. Convective Allowing Models (CAMs) show another round of thunderstorms impacting the same areas this evening, between 7 PM and 10 PM. The Weather Prediction Center currently places northern West Virginia and southeast Ohio in a slight risk of excessive rainfall today. Precipitable Water values range from 1.50 to 1.80 inches today in these areas, and if multiple heavy thunderstorms move over the same locations, flooding will be a concern. KEY MESSAGE 2... An unsettled weather pattern will unfold into the new week with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. Beginning Sunday, a very juicy airmass is expected areawide with dew points expected to reach the lower 70s. There will also be an approaching shortwave trough from the southwest and a slow-moving cold front from the northwest. The combination of heat, humidity, and ample forcing will trigger additional showers and storms on Sunday. Shortwave energy is expected to linger in the mid-level flow throughout the entire week, which will keep the weather unsettled each day. The air will feel summerlike all week with daytime temperatures reaching the upper 80s and lower 90s. Dew points will reach the upper 60s and lower 70s, keeping the air feeling very humid. This heat and humidity, in combination with energy aloft, will trigger diurnal activity each day. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions are currently in place. Thunderstorms in Ohio are advancing eastward, and may impact KPKB, KCKB, and KEKN later in the afternoon and evening. VCTS and TEMPO groups have been added where appropriate. Any thunderstorm can briefly and temporarily cause variable wind gusts and IFR restrictions, but confidence is low at this time, so these restrictions were not included in the 18Z TAF package. MVFR ceilings will impact KPKB, KCKB, and KEKN overnight through Sunday morning. This was included in the 18Z TAF package. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of showers and thunderstorms and associated restrictions may vary. Fog may develop overnight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 EDT 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... IFR conditions possible with scattered showers and storms and low ceilings Sunday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...26 AVIATION...26