576
FXUS61 KRLX 222240
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
540 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Building high pressure brings a return of dry weather for the balance
of the weekend. A low pressure system tracks into the Great Lakes
Tuesday into Wednesday bringing rain. Much colder for Thanksgiving.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 145 PM Saturday...

Dry conditions continue to quickly build further south/east
across the CWA this afternoon following the passage of a cold
front and associated shortwave earlier today. A few isolated
showers or patchy drizzle remains possible this afternoon along
the windward slopes of the mountains given upslope flow, with
dry conditions returning area-wide thereafter. Highs this
afternoon will be near to slightly above normal, with 50s to low
60s across the lowlands, while upper 40s to mid 50s in the
mountains, where some patchy fog remains possible. Some
clearing will occur across the far northwest, while mostly
cloudy skies continue southeast of the Ohio River.

Dry weather continues overnight amid the potential for some fog
development, primarily in the valleys, where skies are able to
clear. This favors areas northwest of a general line from CRW to
CKB, but overall confidence is somewhat low. Fog that does
develop across the north may gradually mix out later tonight as
low-level flow steadily increases in advance of a weak cold
front approaching the northern CWA. Patchy fog is also possible
across the mountains with stratus. Lows tonight will generally
range from 30 to the low 40s, with the warmest temperatures
being across the central/southern lowlands.

The aforementioned cold front will gradually progress through
the CWA on Sunday, providing a gradual wind shift to W/WNW and
the potential for a highly isolated light shower or two across
the far north/east. Partly to mostly cloudy skies early in the
day will gradually transition to mostly sunny by late in the
day. Did tweak wind gusts up a bit given some clearing during
peak mixing hours, with breezy conditions expected across the
lowlands (15-25 MPH), while gusty conditions across the mountains
(25-40 MPH). Highs on Sunday will be nearly the same as today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 220 PM Saturday...

Traversing surface high pressure (~ 1027mb) will provide dry
weather throughout the period. Lows Sunday night will generally
range from the mid 20s to mid 30s amid mostly clear skies, with
the warmest temperatures being across the central/southern
lowlands. Some fog / freezing fog development is expected given
the recent wet weather and near calm winds, primarily across
valleys and especially river valleys given the relatively warm
water temperatures still.

Monday will feature partly to mostly cloudy skies and light
southeast winds as high pressure shifts southeast of the area.
High temperatures will be ~ 5-10 degrees above normal, with low
50s to low 60s across the lowlands, while upper 40s to mid 50s
in the mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 240 PM Saturday...

A return to more active weather is progged for the extended
period courtesy of pair of systems set to impact the area. The
first wave approaches the region late Monday night into Tuesday,
bringing a return of rain showers and at times breezy conditions to
the CWA beginning late Monday night through Tuesday, with rain
amounts generally remaining under 0.75". The chance for
precipitation (scattered rain showers) will then continue
Tuesday night into Wednesday as a cold front with the secondary
system that is much stronger (~ 996mb), albeit centered much
further away across the northern Great Lakes, pulls a strong
cold front through the area during the day on Wednesday,
ushering in significantly colder and dry weather for
Thanksgiving and Friday. While a few ISOLD snow showers cannot
be ruled out across the far northern mountains, mean low-level
flow should have enough of a westerly component to keep most, if
not all, moisture from the Great Lakes north of the CWA.

Well above normal temperatures (~ 10 degrees) are progged for
Tuesday, with highs in the low/mid 60s across the lowlands,
while upper 40s to mid 50s across the mountains. High
temperatures will trend ~ 5 degrees down on Wednesday following
the passage of the first system, with highs dropping to ~ 10-15
degrees below normal for Thanksgiving following the passage of
the cold front w/ the second system. Highs on Thursday/Friday
will be in the mid 30s to low 40s across the lowlands, with mid
20s to low 30s in the mountains. Lows Thursday and Friday nights
will range from the upper teens to mid 20s across the lowlands,
with mid teens to low 20s in the mountains. Breezy to gusty
winds (15-25 MPH lowlands, 25-35 MPH mountains) will make it
feel even colder, particularly across the mountains where wind
chills will be down into the single digits.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 540 PM Saturday...

A stratus deck across portions of the region will continue to
erode tonight. With high pressure providing light winds, some
fog could form after skies clear. The fog is complicated however
by another approaching system that will increase winds later
tonight from west to east and also provide some mid deck clouds.
This could allow for a couple of hours of fog along northern
portions of the Ohio River late this evening, before
dissipating. Further east, fog could form around midnight, but
eroding early as winds and clouds move in. Southern West
Virginia and southwest Virginia could see the fog maintain
through daybreak.

After any fog dissipates, expect VFR conditions for Sunday
despite a moisture starved reinforcing cold front pushing
through the area.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Fog may or may not form tonight. If fog
does form, timing and density could vary.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CIG restrictions today and tonight may vary
from the forecast. Fog development tonight may be less than
currently forecast. Brief MVFR is possible late Sunday morning
into Sunday afternoon at CKB/EKN with stratocu.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EST 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    M    M    M    M    M    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    M    M    M    H    M    M    H    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    L

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
IFR conditions are possible with valley fog Monday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GW
NEAR TERM...GW
SHORT TERM...GW
LONG TERM...GW
AVIATION...RPY