Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
421 FXUS61 KRLX 280403 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1203 AM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Added some small chances of precipitation to the northern West Virginia mountains early this morning as the low off the east coast wraps moisture into the area. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1.) A warming trend bringing daytime temperatures back into the 80s Wednesday and Thursday will precede rain chances Thursday night into the weekend with a cold front. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Quiet conditions and northerly flow will persist through Tuesday as the coastal low tracks northeastward toward Nova Scotia. Upper-level ridging builds over the eastern United States by Tuesday night, allowing low-level flow to transition to the southwest by Wednesday. This return flow will drive a noticeable warming trend, with lowland daytime high temperatures surging back into the upper 70s and 80s for Wednesday and Thursday. A cold front will then push southward into the region Thursday night and Friday. This will bring chances of showers, and possibly thunderstorms, to the region. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Some river valley fog will form this morning in southern West Virginia and southwest Virginia. Some MVFR clouds area possible in northeastern West Virginia. Those MVFR clouds could persist today and this evening over northern West Virginia, but expect VFR conditions further south and west. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Holes in the clouds could allow fog to form in other areas early this morning. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 09/28/26 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L L L L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M H M M M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... IFR in river valley fog is forecast to return in some locations late Monday night into Tuesday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RPY AVIATION...RPY