982
FXUS61 KRLX 282203
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
603 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The severe weather threat for today has waned and relatively
benign weather is expected to set in for tonight. Areas of dense
fog will, however, be possible late night into early Wednesday
morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Additional chances showers and some storms will continue
into Wednesday for the mountain areas, with drier weather
elsewhere through Friday followed by a return of storm chances
this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

The shortwave trough, accompanied by a closed low embedded
within, will continue to progress slowly eastward over Upstate
NY and New England through the end of the work week.
Northwesterly flow on the backside of the trough will support a
renewed potential for showers in the mountains Wednesday
afternoon. Updrafts may struggle to reach heights high enough to
produce lightning due to the depletion of CAPE and increasing
subsidence aloft; however, lightning cannot be ruled out
entirely across the mountains. Otherwise, a refreshing,
northwesterly breeze is forecast area-wide Wednesday, with
stratocu developing by late Wednesday morning. Dry and warm
weather is forecast through Friday, with storm chances forecast
to return this weekend due to a shortwave trough digging into
the Upper Midwest as the subtropical ridge retrogrades over the
Desert Southwest.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Precipitation coverage will continue to diminish, becoming confined
to a few showers along the mountains this evening into tonight. A
mix of MVFR to VFR ceilings are expected amid scattered to broken
cloud cover this evening, then conditions should deteriorate to
IFR/LIFR as low stratus and valley fog develop overnight. Areas of
dense fog are most likely to occur in locations that received rain
earlier in the day. Restrictions will gradually improve to VFR
Wednesday morning, though some MVFR ceilings could linger into the
afternoon along the mountains.

Northwest winds will be light overnight, then increase to around 5-
12 kts during the day Wednesday. Gusts to around 15-25kts may also
be possible at times, particularly during the afternoon and
evening.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog may be less extensive in locations
where winds do not decouple overnight. Timing of improvements
tomorrow may also vary from the forecast.

 &&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EDT 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    L    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    M    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR possible in early morning fog and stratus later this week.
Additional IFR possible in showers and storms this weekend.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sincavage/20
AVIATION...20