202
FXUS61 KRLX 182359
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
759 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly dry and warmer to end the work week. A series of
disturbances keep rain and storms in the forecast this weekend
and early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 735 PM Friday...

No major changes were made to the forecast. Winds are calming
down and RH values are slowly climbing, so the Red Flag Warning
over NE Kentucky will be allowed to expire at 8pm. However, it
will remain mild and at times gusty overnight, with poor
humidity recovery for much of the area.


As of 152 PM Friday...

Winds will continue to increase through this evening as a cold
front approaches form the northwest through Saturday morning.
Showers and thunderstorms will be possible ahead and along the
front. Model consensus suggests bulk of precipitation will stay
along and west of the OH River into Saturday evening. Have
chance PoPs across the northern half of the CWA on Saturday. SPC
highlighted portions of SE OH into a Marginal Risk for Severe
thunderstorms, and general thunder elsewhere.

A warm night in on tap under strong WAA. Expect lows to be in
the 60s across the lowlands, ranging into the mid 50s higher
elevations. Very warm temperatures for Saturday afternoon,
reaching the mid 80s across the lowlands, and into the lower 70s
northeast mountains.

The combination of warm temperatures, dry conditions and gusty
winds poses a threat for rapid fire spread this afternoon and
evening. A special weather statement is in effect for the entire
area until 8 PM.

In collaboration with neighboring offices and the KY Division
of Forestry, Issued a Red Flag Warning for NE Kentucky until 8
PM this evening, where sustained winds are particularly stronger
that the rest of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 200 PM Friday...

A nebulous frontal zone is expected to be draped across our
area Saturday night into Sunday. Guidance does not have an
especially good handle on the exact positioning with WRF based
guidance generally indicating better progress to the south
Saturday night while GFS/ECMWF would keep the effective boundary
farther north. Overall impacts to sensible weather shouldn`t be
too significant with only some light showers expected in the
vicinity of the frontal zone on Sunday.

Low pressure emerging from the Southern Rockies Saturday night
and tracking up the Missouri Valley during the day Sunday will
yield the aforementioned nebulous boundary lifting back to the
north as a warm front either late Sunday afternoon or Sunday
night. Elevated instability along and ahead of this feature
looks pretty meager, but couldn`t rule out a few showers or
possibly a thunderstorm lifting north Monday morning. Afternoon
highs Sunday will largely be driven by this boundary with highs
in the lower to mid 80s south of the front and mid to upper 70s
north of it. Given the spread in model guidance, will defer to
central guidance which would put this delineation roughly just
north of the Metro Valley. For those south of the boundary this
represents highs around 15 degrees above normal values for this
time of the year.

Despite some degree of negative tilt with the parent trough,
don`t see too much cold air spreading in aloft ahead of frontal
passage Monday afternoon/evening. This should keep mid-level
lapse rates on the tame side reducing conditional instability.
Will need to continue to monitor both mid-level lapse rates,
available low level moisture immediately ahead of the front and
ultimate frontal timing but severe potential, but for now would
assess a lower end risk of some stronger storms for Monday
afternoon/Monday evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 PM Friday...

Precipitation associated with the cold front is expected to
exit Monday night or early Tuesday morning depending on ultimate
frontal timing.

High zonal flow is then expected for the balance of Tuesday
into Wednesday with mainly dry conditions before mid-level
heights begin to build ahead of the next southern stream system.
Model consistency is rather poor mid-week and beyond with
significant spreads opening up in interquartile fields of
central guidance. Will largely defer to deterministic central
guidance as is through the remainder of the period given low
confidence. This yields a forecast with temperatures generally
remaining above normal, with conditions becoming increasingly
unsettled heading into the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 720 PM Friday...

VFR conditions are generally expected through the period at our
TAF sites. A few showers or weaker thunderstorms are possible
over SE Ohio around sunrise/12z Sat, but in general that seems
likely to dissipate or weaken before reaching PKB. A better
chance will arrive later this afternoon and evening, as the cold
front to our NW slowly sags towards WV. Confidence on the speed
of any southeastward push of showers and storms remains on the
lower side, so for now stuck with PROB30 groups at PKB and CKB
in the last few hours of the TAF period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            SAT 04/19/25
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
Brief periods of IFR conditions possible in heavier showers or
storms Saturday evening. Patchy fog possible Sunday morning,
mainly north.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK/ARJ/JP
NEAR TERM...FK/ARJ
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...FK