709
FXUS61 KRLX 042351
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
751 PM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure vacating the area tonight. A slow moving cold
front approaches late in the work week, with a return to more
active weather late Thursday into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 746 PM Wednesday...

Satellite imagery shows cu field dissipating across the area this
evening. Expect milky skies due to smoke/haze from the Canadian
wildfires, reducing visibility some at least across the eastern
mountains tonight. Rest of forecast remains on track.

As of 100 PM Wednesday...

Another dry and hot day is underway across the forecast area in
the midst of departing high pressure. As excess moisture rides
up along southerly flow, afternoon cumulus fields have begun to
sprout in conjunction with increasing temperatures and humidity.
Today will feature the warmest afternoon for this week, with
many locations anticipated to sneak up to the 90 degree mark
across the lower elevations.

Clouds will continue to increase overnight tonight as moisture
is ushered in from the south. This will help prime the
atmosphere for an approaching, albeit at a sluggish pace, cold
front that is set to bring the return of active weather starting
on Thursday, which will then prevail into the start of the
weekend.

As influence from the surface high and ridging aloft condenses
over the Central Appalachians, the potential for precipitation
increases throughout the day Thursday. The first area receiving
morning showers may occur across our southeastern zones in
response to an area of low pressure churning off the Carolina
coast. While the eastern mountain slopes may shield our WV and
VA counties from higher POPs, a few light sprinkles may sneak
over the peeks into the Greenbrier Valley throughout the day.

Better potential for rain tracks in with the cold front for the
concluding hours of the forecast period. Hi-res CAMs suggest
mostly dry weather holds out for the bulk of the morning hours
Thursday, then growing active in the afternoon across southeast
Ohio and northeast Kentucky. East of the Ohio River, showers and
perhaps a few rumbles of embedded thunder will overcome
lingering subsidence from the vacating high late in the
afternoon and early evening. The front itself looks to stall
just west of the forecast area late Thursday, maintaining
unsettled weather into the short term period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1225 PM Wednesday...

Showers and thunderstorms will become widespread Friday afternoon
and evening across the region as a cold front slowly approaches from
the northwest. The front will be situated over central Ohio
Friday with a mid-level shortwave approaching from the west. A
juicy and uncapped atmosphere with PWATs anywhere from 1.5-1.75"
will allow for showers and thunderstorms to develop, becoming
more numerous later in the day ahead of the mid-level shortwave.
Locally heavy downpours may create a localized flooding risk,
particularly in urban areas and in any training cells. Models
expect 800-1200 J/kg of MLCAPE to develop by the afternoon
areawide, with weak to modest 0-6 km shear (25-30 kts). This
should be enough to support a few severe thunderstorms with
damaging wind gusts and hail being the primary threats. The
vertical wind profile does not look favorable for tornadic
development. Afternoon temperatures will reach the lower 80s
Friday afternoon, and the air will feel quite humid with dew
points near 70 degrees.

Severe potential should be reduced Friday night without the
heating of the day, but showers and non-severe thunderstorms
will linger as the front approaches from the northwest and the
mid- level shortwave remains overhead, providing uplift for
precipitation. Strong thunderstorms will be possible again
Saturday with MLCAPE expected to increase to 800-1200 J/kg once
again. However, the location and magnitude of the severe threat
Saturday is still questionable at this time because it will
likely depend on the location of the front. This will become
clearer as models get a better handle on the front`s timing over
the next few days. Afternoon temperatures will be a few degrees
lower Saturday compared to Friday, with highs expected to be in
the middle to upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1225 PM Wednesday...

High pressure will briefly build into the middle Ohio Valley Sunday.
A small chance of showers will remain in the forecast due to
lingering weak energy aloft, but overall, Sunday should be a bit
drier than Saturday as mid-level heights rise. Highs will be near 80
Sunday.

Another low pressure system and a large cold front will approach
either late Monday or early Tuesday. Additional showers and
thunderstorms will be possible ahead of this system, and Monday
will be another hot day with highs in the lower to middle 80s.
High pressure will then build in behind this front, providing
some drier and slightly cooler weather for the middle of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 746 PM Wednesday...

High pressure provides dry weather conditions tonight. Skies
will remain hazy due to smoke from Canadian wildfires. Coded 4SM
at BKW, deteriorating to 3SM overnight, and then lifting up to
4 to 6SM Thursday morning. However, do not expect haze/smoke to
affect other terminals at this point. HRRR guidance is very slow
to dissipate this smoke, so perhaps hazy skies will prevail
into Thursday.

A slow moving cold front approaches from the northwest on
Thursday, destabilizing the atmosphere to produce mainly
afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Abundant moisture with
PWATs reaching 1.8 inches and theta-e exceeding 344K under
SBCAPE exceeding 3000 J/Kg and poor deep layered shear will
allow for strong updrafts and water loading. Localized heavy
downpours are anticipated. Expect gusty winds and brief periods
of IFR visibility with the heavier showers or storms.

The front stalls over the area on Friday into Saturday.
Light southerly winds prevail through the period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Improvements in visibility above MVFR would
be possible at BKW in haze/smoke overnight tonight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EDT 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR conditions at times in showers and thunderstorms Thursday
evening into Saturday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEK/FK
NEAR TERM...MEK/ARJ
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...ARJ