402
FXUS61 KRLX 170313
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1113 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure brings dry weather through Saturday, with a chilly
night tonight followed by a stout warmup. A strong cold crosses
Sunday, setting up a cool work week with another front crossing.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1100 PM Thursday...

The forecast remains on track as temperatures having tumbled
throughout the evening, especially across valley locations
given the clear skies and surface flow that has quickly gone
calm, with upper 30s and 40s already across the lowlands, while
30s and low 40s in the mountains. Frost and river valley fog
will develop throughout the overnight.

As of 630 PM Thursday...

Given dew points across the area at present via afternoon
boundary layer mixing, have nudged overnight lows a degree or
two lower across much of the forecast area, with mid/upper 30s
possible across much of the lowland valley cold spots. Given
such, did expand the Frost Advisory a tier of counties to the
southwest, and also issued a Special Weather Statement for our
remaining counties in terms of patchy frost where coverage is
expected to be not as widespread, but certainly could occur in
some locations. Overall, surface high pressure drifting nearly
overhead tonight will result in the coldest night of the fall
thus far. The only other update to the forecast was to increase
river valley fog coverage later tonight into early Friday
morning. A significant air/water temperature difference and
SFC-H850 flow less than 10 kts should allow for a decent amount
of river valley steam fog to develop late tonight, likely dense
in spots. Patchy freezing fog could occur in the Tygart Valley
given the colder temperatures there.

As of 205 PM Thursday...

High pressure crossing the area and mid/upper-level ridging to
the west bring dry weather, with a clear, chilly night tonight,
and sunshine to start Friday. Clouds will increase Friday
afternoon, as mid and high warm advection clouds spill over the
mid/upper-level ridge.

There is no reason to doubt lower guidance at least for the
valleys on lows tonight, given ideal radiational cooling with
clear, calm conditions under high pressure building overhead.
This warrants upgrading the Freeze Watch in effect in the
northern mountains overnight tonight into Friday morning into a
Freeze Warning, and the hoisting of Frost Advisories farther
down the mountains and back across the northern and central
lowlands.

With return flow around the back side of the high not occurring
until late, when clouds increase anyway, highs Friday will only
be slightly higher than today, or near normal for this time of
year. Widespread minimum relative humidity percentages in the
30s are expected Friday afternoon, but amid little to no wind.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 205 PM Thursday...

This weekend begins with a stout warmup ahead of a cold front,
and ends with a cool down behind it. In between, beneficial
rain is on tap for Sunday, as the cold front crosses.

A dirty mid/upper-level ridge crosses Friday night with warm
advection mid and high clouds, while surface high pressure
gives way to return southerly flow. Showers are possible
overnight Saturday night across the north, where the cloud deck
is a little lower.

Both the clouds and return flow will result in a noticeably
milder night, with lows some ten degrees higher than tonight.
The warming trend continues on Saturday, as the clouds give way
to some sunshine. It and southerly return flow will help buoy
temperatures into the lower 80s across much of the lowlands
Saturday afternoon.

A strong cold front, driven by a digging mid/upper-level short
wave trough, approaches Saturday night, and then crosses on
Sunday. Model differences arise with the timing of the frontal
passage across the forecast area, with the faster NAM moving
the front across during the morning and midday hours, and the
faster GFS, ECMWF and CMC moving the front through Sunday
afternoon.

Clouds and the chance for rain showers increases late Saturday
night ahead of the strong cold front and very vigorous trough
approaching from the west. Sunday will be wet and windy as the
front crosses.

While the slower timing gives rise to some increase in the
chance for thunderstorms Sunday afternoon, the amplitude and
vigor of the system could support a few thunderstorms regardless
of timing, even overnight Saturday night. The slower timing,
though, would allow DCAPE/low level lapse rates steep enough to
encourage mixing of the 50 to 60 kts h85 flow for potential
damaging wind gusts Sunday midday and afternoon.

Models generally show a rather manageable quarter to half inch
rainfall south/southeast to a half inch to an inch
north/northwest, as the strongest mid/upper-level dynamics
associated with the system, and higher QPF amounts, lift mostly
to northwest of the forecast area. However, the ECMWF shows the
core of the digging, intensifying short wave trough farther
south, right over the forecast area, Sunday, which then actually
becomes a closed low east of the area Sunday night. As a
result, QPF amounts are much higher, to the tune of an inch
south to one and a half to one and three quarters of an inch
north.

Either way, the rainfall should be primarily beneficial though,
given the drought conditions across portions of the forecast
area. However, the Weather Prediction Center has placed much of
the area in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall for Sunday.
Though amplified, the system has limited access to Gulf
moisture, Even so, PW values are forecast to peak in the 1.25 to
1.5 inch range, allowing for brief heavier rainfall rates in
stronger convective updrafts, and thus locally higher rainfall
totals.

Even outside thunderstorms, a strong surface pressure and strong
height gradient/winds aloft will allow for strong surface wind
gusts ahead of the cold front, especially on later timing, and
behind the front, with good low level cold advection mixing
regardless of timing. Did not accept the slightly lower central
guidance wind speed and gust values, and actually leaned toward
its higher percentiles, and will need to monitor for increased
potential for advisory criteria wind gusts, which could be
approached at least on the higher ridges.

The incoming system will make for an even milder night Saturday
night, compared with Friday night, but the clouds and rain will
limit lowland highs to the mid 70s, still above normal, on
Sunday. Sunday night will be cooler in the wake of the front,
with lows generally in the 40s, either near or below normal
depending upon the timing of the frontal passage.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 205 PM Thursday...

The weekend system sets us up with a cool work week ahead,
reinforced by yet another cold front crossing Tuesday. Models
have converged on this timing, with central guidance now
depicting a good chance for showers on Tuesday, which could be
beneficial given another rigorous mid/upper-level short wave
trough.

Highs top out only near normal behind the front on Monday, and
then back above normal Tuesday ahead of the second front, but
then below normal in its wake mid to late week. In fact,
temperatures may not get out of the 50s on Wednesday even
across the lowlands. After bottoming out near to slightly below
normal early on next week, lows will trend further below normal
behind the second cold front mid to late week, and we will
again be watching for possible frost and even freeze conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 755 PM Thursday...

High pressure with very dry air provides mainly VFR conditions
this period amid mostly clear skies. Restrictions are possible
with river valley fog late tonight into Friday morning, which
is expected to be slightly more widespread than this morning.
CRW/EKN/PKB are the terminals most likely to be affected by
fog, but very brief restrictions at CKB/HTS near or slightly
after dawn with fog drifting over cannot entirely be ruled out.
Any fog that does develop will lift/dissipate from ~12-1330Z,
giving way to a widespread VFR day amid increasing mid/upper
level clouds.

Surface flow will become calm tonight, with calm or light and
variable flow expected on Friday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium tonight with fog, high otherwise.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, location, and intensity of
restrictions with river valley fog late tonight into Friday
morning may vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             FRI 10/17/25
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR conditions are possible in rain Sunday and Sunday night.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for WVZ007>011-
     014>020-027>032-039-040-515>521.
     Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for WVZ522>526.
OH...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>086.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM/GW
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...GW