105
FXUS61 KRLX 280245
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1045 PM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure brings dry and unseasonably cool conditions
through the week. A weak, moisture-starved cold front will
reinforce this cool airmass on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 620 PM Wednesday...

A deep mixed-layer this afternoon and early evening AOA 6-7kft
across much of the forecast area has brought down drier air
aloft to the surface, with widespread surface dew points in the
mid 30s to mid 40s at present, which is quite impressive for
late August! This has resulted in RH values of 20-35%. Have
updated temperatures and dew points through the overnight to
match the latest trends, lowering both towards NBM 5th
percentile or even lower in some cases. Very dry near surface
conditions along with clearing skies and light flow courtesy of
surface high pressure moving nearly overhead will result in very
favorable radiational cooling overnight, with the only possible
hindrance being the potential for some mid/upper level clouds
associated with a weak mid-level wave currently across the
western upper Ohio Valley. Trended overnight lows a couple to
several degrees cooler area-wide, with upper 30s and 40s
expected across the lowlands, while mid 30s to mid 40s in the
mountains. There is the potential for a bit of patchy frost
across the high elevation mountain valleys in Pocahontas/Randolph
counties that are most susceptible to cold air drainage. Have
issued a SPS for these forecast zones to highlight this
potential. Additionally, some river valley steam fog will once
again develop given moisture flux associated with a significant
difference between water / air temperature, but given dry low-
levels, fog will remain quite confined to the immediate river
basins. The rest of the forecast remains on track.

As of 1126 AM Wednesday...

High pressure brings another quiet and comfortable day areawide with
a Fall-like feel to the air. Afternoon temperatures will reach the
the upper 60s across the mountains to the middle 70s in the
lowlands. Dew point temperatures this afternoon will drop to the
upper 30s and lower 40s with afternoon minimum RHs in the upper 20s
to lower 30s across the lowlands. The air will certainly be dry, but
fire weather shouldn`t be a huge concern at this time with the
leaves still on the trees. Mostly clear skies overnight will allow
overnight lows to reach the upper 40s to lower 50s areawide.

A cold front will approach from the northwest Thursday, but it will
be starved for moisture. The only chance of rain will be across
northern West Virginia and southeast Ohio late Thursday into
Thursday night with PoPs generally limited to 20 percent or
less.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1126 AM Wednesday...

An upper-level area of low pressure will remain over northern New
England Friday and Saturday with a surface high over the lower Great
Lakes. Dry air over the middle Ohio Valley and central Appalachians
will bring comfortable days and cool nights with a good deal of
sunshine each afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1126 AM Wednesday...

Models are not in agreement regarding the location and evolution of
the aforementioned upper-level low in the long-term forecast
period. Models show some brief ridging west of the upper-level
low, which could signal the return of some warmer weather across
the middle Ohio Valley for early next week. However, this could
change as models come into better agreement. Models are also
showing signs of an additional upper-level trough developing
over the Eastern United States for the middle of next week,
potentially signaling another cool down. At this time, rain
chances look to be minimal through the middle of next week.
Overall, our confidence in this long-term forecast is low due to
model inconsistency, which is common this time of year when
dealing with upper-level low pressure.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 745 PM Wednesday...

VFR conditions under clear skies this evening will give way to
FEW-SCT mid/upper level clouds later tonight amid some
developing river valley fog. Overall, expect fog coverage to be
quite similar to last night, perhaps a touch more widespread.
Restrictions are currently progged only for EKN, but river
valley fog will likely be in the vicinity of CRW/CKB/HTS/PKB
and could briefly creep into a terminal near sunrise. Any fog
that develops lifts/dissipates from ~1130-1230Z, with widespread
VFR thereafter amid a developing FEW-SCT high based (045-050)
Cu field. A highly isolated light shower is possible towards the
end of the TAF period across portions of southeast Ohio.

Surface flow goes calm tonight, with light WSW to WNW flow
developing on Thursday. Occasional breezes up to 15 kts or so
are possible during the afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium tonight with fog, high otherwise.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR/IFR fog could briefly impact CRW, CKB,
HTS, or PKB near dawn on Thursday.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            THU 08/28/25
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    M    L    L

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR conditions possible in patchy river valley fog each morning
through this weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A record low temperature of 47 degrees was set at Parkersburg,
WV Wednesday morning. This ties the old record of 47 degrees
set in 1945.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GW/JMC
NEAR TERM...GW/JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...GW
CLIMATE...GW