385
FXUS61 KRLX 150755
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
355 AM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Slow moving rain showers and storms will continue through early
next week, influenced by an upper level low system and a
stationary front. Heavy rain and localized flooding possible.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 355 AM Sunday...

A Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for portions of eastern,
central and northern West Virginia, and for Washington county
in SE OH from noon today through this evening.

As of 245 AM Sunday...

Forecast weather charts show nearly stationary frontal boundary
oscillating north to south over our CWA overnight into Sunday night.
Meanwhile, the upper-level low moves over the OH Valley and WV by
this morning, exiting east by late Sunday night. Models
consensus shows a series of vorticity maxima associated with
this low, crossing our area today. These features will provide
adequate forcing to act under a juicy airmass, triggering
convection. The afternoon heating and orographic effects will
enhance convection into Sunday evening.

An increase in moisture is noted with PWATs reaching 1.9 inches
(+2sd from climatology), and surface dewpoints in the low to mid
70s. Deep layered shear values are very low. These conditions will
allow for strong updrafts, probably water loading, to produce heavy
downpours. Timing and location of showers and storms could be
anywhere and anytime over our area Sunday and Sunday night. Model
consensus suggest QPF of 1 to 3 inches of rain possible across the
central and northern mountains into Monday. However, rainfall rates
1 to 2 inches per hour and the slow cell motions may yield to
localized totals of 3 to 4 inches. Therefore, allowed likely and
categorical PoPs Sunday afternoon and evening when confidence runs
higher for this time period.

WPC maintains a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall over the WV,
southwest VA and portions of SE OH through Monday morning. Although
the probability of severe thunderstorms is low, heavier storms will
be able to produce heavy downpours capable to produce flash flooding
of streets, creeks, low-lying and poor drainage areas today and
tonight. Instances of localized significant flooding are also
possible. Therefore, a Flood Watch for flash flooding may be needed
across portions of our CWA today through Monday morning. Continued
coordinating with neighboring offices before issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 340 AM Sunday...

Key Point:
* Unsettled with localized flood concerns persisting through the
  beginning of the work week.

A lingering front continues to support showers and thunderstorms on
Monday, with most robust activity expected to occur during the
afternoon and evening hours. A shortwave trough approaches from the
west, and then nudges the front to the north as it treks across the
CWA Tuesday into Tuesday night.

Given the locally heavy rain over the past couple of days, and the
potential for additional heavy rain in storms early this week,
marginal risks of excessive rainfall remain present through Tuesday.

While a few strong storms could also develop each day, better
potential for severe weather is expected in conjunction with
the shortwave, and as instability peaks Tuesday afternoon and
evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 340 AM Sunday...

Key Points:
* Active most of the work week.
* High pressure arrives late week into next weekend.

Residual moisture and shortwave energy may sustain a chance of
showers and thunderstorms during the day Wednesday; however, better
precipitation chances are expected to spread into the area as a cold
front approaches, and then passes through, the area during the
latter half of the work week. A period of quieter weather may
finally be on the horizon as high pressure builds in behind the
front late week into next weekend.

Temperatures are expected to range from near to above normal mid to
late week, with potential for rather hot conditions to develop
next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 148 AM Sunday...

Radar imagery shows showers and thunderstorms activity
developing over the area, as a series of shortwaves trigger
convection under a very wet atmosphere overnight into Sunday.
Good precipitation efficiency will allow for brief periods of
heavy rain and associated IFR/LIFR conditions along their path.
In addition, IFR/LIFR patchy dense fog is trying to develop
under cloudy skies from EKN and CKB, west to PKB at the moment
of writing. Light or shallow fog will be possible elsewhere
overnight into Sunday morning.

Expect an increase on showers and thunderstorms activity Sunday
afternoon and evening as the upper low parks overhead. This will
affect most terminals for periods of IFR/LIFR conditions under
heavy rain. Coded thunderstorms with TEMPO and PROB30 groups
overnight and also Sunday afternoon at most terminals.

Calm to light and variable winds will prevail through the
period. Flow aloft will be light and variable to light south to
southwest through the overnight, becoming light cyclonic as low
pressure aloft moves overhead on Sunday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and magnitude of impacts from
convection may vary from the forecast. Locally dense fog
possible overnight where any heavy rain falls.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         SUN 06/15/25
UTC 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
EDT 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    H    L    H    M    M    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    H    L    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    H    L    L    M    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
Brief IFR possible in rounds of showers and thunderstorms
into next week. Locally heavy rain during the afternoons and
evenings could yield patchy dense overnight fog each night.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch from noon EDT today through this evening for
     WVZ009>011-015>020-026>032-039-040-515>526.
OH...Flood Watch from noon EDT today through this evening for
     OHZ076.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/20
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM...20
AVIATION...ARJ