097
FXUS61 KRLX 310941
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
541 AM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Storm Prediction Center has shifted the Marginal Risk for
Severe Thunderstorms southwestward into far northeast portions
of the forecast areas for the Tuesday/Tuesday night period.

Timing of next cold front zeroes in on the end of the work
week, with 15 percent risks for Severe Thunderstorms northern
and central portions of the area Thursday through Friday, and
Marginal Risks for Excessive Rainfall Thursday through Friday.

Drier weather with more seasonable temperatures follow for the
Labor Day Holiday weekend.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Building heat with isolated showers and storms shifting
  northeastward through midweek.

- 2) Shower and storm coverage increases late this week, as a
  cold front approaches.

- 3) Drier weather with more seasonable temperatures follow the
  cold front for the Labor Day Holiday weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Heat builds through midweek as high pressure surface and aloft
nudges closer to the area from the southwest and south. In the
meantime, there is still enough room ahead of the high for a
mid-level short wave trough to graze northern portions of the
area with at least sprinkles this morning, a few of which were
noted upstream. The exiting short wave may still be close enough
for isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon over
northeast portions of the area, and made an adjustment to
central guidance to account for this.

Despite sufficient instability, marginal/modest shear and slight
height rises should limit the severe threat this afternoon, but
any downpour could be quite heavy, and lead to downburst wind
gusts given DCAPE amid the mixed pre-storm environment
characterized by the classic inverted-V temperature-dew point
vertical profile.

The forecast remains mainly dry for Tuesday and Wednesday as
short wave troughs riding the periphery of the mid-upper level
high traverse farther northeast of the forecast area. However,
adjustments may eventually be needed if this corridor is slower
to ease northeastward.

The Storm Prediction Center has shifted the Marginal Risk for Severe
Thunderstorms southwestward into far northeast portions of the
forecast areas for the Tuesday/Tuesday night period, most likely for
a second thunderstorm complex Tuesday night tracking a bit south and
west of its Tuesday afternoon predecessor. A slight chance for
thunderstorms has been added for northeast portions of the forecast
area for late Tuesday, and its placement and timing may need further
adjustment in subsequent forecast issuances.

H85 temperatures peak around 20C this afternoon, and 21-22C by
Wednesday afternoon. This supports lowland high temperatures in
the mid to upper 90s F and, over dew points around 70F, heat
indices could reach the lower to mid 100s F come Wednesday
afternoon. We could see isolated instance of heat indices near
100 F in the lowlands this afternoon, and then more common
instances in the lowlands, at least across the Kanawha Valley,
Tuesday. As a result, the need for heat headlines is likely to
increase through Wednesday and even continue Thursday, depending
upon the timing of the approach of the next cold front.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The ridge amplifies but retrogrades westward toward the end of
the work week, allowing s short wave trough to drive a surface
cold front to and through the area from the northwest. This
increases the chance for / coverage of showers and storms and,
eventually, a break in the oppressive heat. The threat for
strong, heavy thunderstorms is possible amid adequate moisture
and instability, and at least marginal/modest shear. Current
timing suggests the greatest threat for the bulk of the forecast
area would be Friday afternoon.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed 15 percent risks for
Severe Thunderstorms across northern and central portions of the
area Thursday through Friday. The Weather Prediction Center has
placed a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall across northern
and central portions of the area for Thursday, and then across
the entire area for Friday.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Models concur on surface high pressure pressure building south
from eastern Canada behind the cold front, with drier weather
and more seasonable temperatures bringing a break in the
oppressive heat for the Labor Day Holiday weekend. It make take
until after Saturday to completely shake the chance for showers
and thunderstorms out of southern and eastern portions of the
forecast area, as mid/upper-level heights build slowly east
behind the short wave trough, and ahead of mid/upper-level high
pressure large and in charge over the center of the CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Fog at EKN this morning will lift to VFR by 14Z, while any
remaining MVFR mist elsewhere will be gone by 13Z.

An incoming disturbance could bring showers or sprinkles across
northern WV this morning, but this should have little if any
impacts on aviation.

This afternoon will bring a cumulus field with isolated showers
and thunderstorms. Coverage and confidence was not high enough
for TAF inclusion in any form, but CKB and EKN would be the
sites most likely to be impacted.

Tonight will begin VFR, with valley fog formation late tonight
likely again interfered with by cloudiness. Have IFR to VLIFR
fog at EKN after 06Z for EKN, with borderline MVFR mist most
elsewhere.

Calm conditions early this morning will give way to light west
to southwest flow later this morning, and then light west to
northwest flow by this afternoon, before becoming calm again
tonight. A thunderstorm could bring brief, erratic gusty winds
this afternoon. Flow aloft will generally be light west.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Brief restrictions could occur if an
isolated shower/storm were to directly impact a TAF site this
afternoon. Extent, timing and intensity of fog overnight
tonight may vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               MON 08/31/26
UTC 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
EDT 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR conditions are possible with patchy river valley fog
Wednesday and Thursday mornings. Strong to possibly severe
thunderstorms northeast of the area late Tuesday through
Wednesday night will settle south into the area Thursday and
Friday, resulting in IFR conditions and possibly strong to
severe wind gusts from brief, direct thunderstorm impacts.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TRM
AVIATION...TRM