Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
041 FXUS61 KRLX 011629 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1229 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to the previous forecast package. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1.) A cold front brings showers and thunderstorms Friday, possibly lingering through the weekend. 2.) High pressure then provides drier and cooler weather for the new work week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... After the last day of dry weather for the area a cold front is then forecast for Friday although a clean frontal passage will not be until toward the end of the weekend. The cold front is forecast to sag south into the area starting Friday morning and then will proceed to move southward throughout the day. This feature will provide high chances for widespread shower activity with the possibility of a few storms which should be isolated in nature although worse case scenario would be some scattered thunderstorm activity through the afternoon. With the lack of modest shear and instability the severe thunderstorm threat will be limited so just the general run of the mill storms are possible and a few could become strong. With sufficient DCAPE and PWAT values the main threat will be localized flash flooding. This would be possible across low lying or flood prone areas if hit repeatedly by heavy shower or thunderstorm activity. WPC does have us in a marginal threat for excessive rainfall for much of the area, however since we have been dry and flash flood guidance will be high the risk would be just across those aforementioned areas that are basically flood prone or known nuisance areas. The cold front will continue to move southward and out of the area but meander to our south for Saturday. This will keep chances for shower or even a few thunderstorms across the southern portions of our CWA across southern West Virginia and southwest Virginia. The severe threat will again be limited so just thinking general thunderstorm activity along with the possibility of localized flash flooding. WPC has been advertising a marginal risk for excessive rainfall for Saturday into Sunday in association with this expected activity. Isolated flash flooding is possible under heavy downpours which could lead to issues across low lying or flood prone areas, especially in know nuisance areas who are hit repeatedly. The meandering semi-stationary frontal boundary will then have a wave of low pressure ride along the boundary line and up into our part of the area, however should stay in the southern portions. This feature will provide additional chances even further to the north for Sunday. We cannot rule out thunderstorm chances close to the low center in portions of our southernmost areas in the CWA, especially diurnally driven. However, temperatures by Saturday will be below seasonable for much of the area, especially north of the frontal boundary. This semi-stationary frontal boundary will then be pushed out by late Sunday and early Monday as another reinforcing cold frontal boundary to the north is brought in by a parent low pressure clipper type system. This frontal boundary will be moisture starved and provided little to no additional shower or storm activity. This feature will then be followed by strong high pressure building in which will provide the region with much drier and maintain the cooler weather for the new work week. KEY MESSAGE 2... With the main weather maker exiting toward the south by Monday, strong high pressure builds in from the north and advects in cold air which will maintain temperatures down below seasonable for the new work week. This high pressure system will provide a break from unsettled weather for the rest of the work week and possibly beyond. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR is anticipated to prevail for much of the TAF period. The only exception would be the possibility of some brief instances of MVFR or worse conditons under shower or thunderstorm activity during Friday afternoon and into the early evening. With strong surface flow no fog is expected for the overnight hours tonight and into the area morning. CIGs will likely lower to MVFR or worse, especially along the mountain sites during frontal passage Friday afternoon and into the evening. These low CIGs may stick around longer as the frontal boundary gets hung up toward our south providing additional chances for shower or storm activity. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M L L H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z FRIDAY... Showers and thunderstorms could provide brief IFR Friday. IFR ceilings are possible north of the cold front over southern WV and southwestern VA Friday night into Saturday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JZ AVIATION...JZ