100
FXUS61 KRLX 292305
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
705 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Much of the area should remain dry through early next week,
though a few storms could develop along the mountains Sunday
and Monday afternoons. Better rain chances arrive mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1210 PM Friday...

A weak moisture starved cold front will continue to push
southward through the area today. Although a shower or two can
not be ruled out with the front, most locations will remain dry.

A high pressure system will then build in behind the front for
tonight and Saturday, providing dry weather. Winds behind the
front should become light enough for some river valley fog to
form late tonight/early Saturday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1245 PM Friday...

A high pressure system will gradually shift eastward through the
period. While dry conditions can be expected Saturday night and
Sunday morning, enough moisture may push into the mountains to
allow for some afternoon showers and thunderstorms Sunday and
Monday afternoons.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1245 PM Friday...

Moisture will begin increasing on Tuesday as an upper level
trough approaches from the west. This will allow for a chance of
showers and thunderstorms for much of the area. The chances for
showers and thunderstorms increase on Wednesday afternoon and
evening as the upper level disturbance moves across the area.

A strong cold front will then push through the area Thursday or
Thursday night, with models varying a bit on the timing.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 705 PM Friday...

Initially VFR conditions are expected to deteriorate to IFR or
worse as fog develops in the river valleys late tonight into
early Saturday morning. Areawide VFR will return once fog
dissipates around 12-13Z, then high pressure should sustain VFR
conditions for the rest of the day.

Northerly winds will become calm to light overnight and then
remain light on Saturday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent and timing of fog tonight could
vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EDT 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
IFR conditions possible in dense river valley fog each morning
through this weekend.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RPY/20
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...20