380
FXUS61 KRLX 211853
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
253 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
18Z Aviation Forecast discussion update.

Episodic rounds of showers and thunderstorms attached with heavy
rainfall looks to prevail into Wednesday morning, leading to
additional potential for flash flooding. With that in mind,
opted to extend the Flood Watch in time and also revamp the
coverage of the Watch to include more of our West Virginia
counties. Rain chances stretch through the overnight hours,
amplifying concerns of nighttime flash flooding.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1.)Flash flooding concerns stretch into midweek amid periods of
heavy showers and thunderstorms. Nighttime flash flooding will
be possible tonight and Tuesday night across the area, so ensure
you have multiple ways of receiving warnings that may be issued
over the next few days.

2.) Turning noticeably cooler and drier late in the work week
into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Satellite and radar trends at the time of writing place the
bulk of the forecast area within clear skies and quiet weather
after the slow departure of overnight/early morning convective
complexes that rolled through. However, will have to monitor
developing cumulus fields across central and eastern Kentucky,
as this will provide the next round of showers and storms slated
for later this evening.

Hi-res simulated reflectivity models show another signal of
overnight shower and thunderstorm potential setting up
additional flash flooding concerns heading into Tuesday morning.
The QPF forecast shifts the attention off of an already
battered southeast Ohio east of the river to mainly West
Virginia. Scattered showers and storms are progged to form late
in the night in similar fashion to last night, stirring up
overnight flash flooding issues. Locally higher amounts of rain
could yield the use of amplified flash flood warning messaging,
so ensure you have ways of receiving a warning that could be
issued overnight.

Flash flooding concerns, while still dependent on where the
axis of heaviest rainfall sets up over the next few days, will
be highest across northeast WV and down the spine of the
Appalachians. An inverted trough feature setting up over this
region, in tandem with a coastal low riding up along the eastern
seaboard, will promote episodic rounds of showers and storms
through midweek. This could set the stage for one to two inches
of additional rainfall to arise. With that in mind, opted to
extend the Flood Watch through Wednesday morning as we finish
the last few days of active weather before a period of dry
weather reaches the Central Appalachians.


KEY MESSAGE 2...

The upper level low that has remained trapped overhead will
finally track offshore heading into the end of the work week.
Strong subsidence and northwest flow prompted by a building
ridge will help to evacuate any lingering moisture over the
region. Quiet and pleasant fall-like weather enters the forecast
for most on Thursday, outside of a rogue shower or storm still
hovering over the higher terrain. Daytime temperature spread of
the 60s to low 70s will topple down to cool, crisp overnight
lows spanning the upper 30s to upper 40s. While clouds will be
slow to lift and erode on Thursday, ample sunshine by Friday
will lead the charge to what is looking to be a Chamber of
Commerce weather weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A band of showers and storms pivoting through West Virginia this
afternoon will complete its passage over all TAF sites shortly
after the valid forecast period begins. A bit of a dry spell has
taken shape across out airspace this afternoon, but is
anticipated to fill back in quickly with developing showers and
storms by this evening. Another signal of overnight convection
has been noted for tonight, with a combination of widespread low
stratus and periods of heavy downpours triumphing into Tuesday
morning. Little to no improvements in ceilings look to occur
through 18Z Tuesday, with stratus hovering over the region
during that time.

A quick uptick in winds may be observed in strong thunderstorms
throughout the period, growing calm outside of convective
activity.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, location, and intensity of showers
and thunderstorms could vary late tonight into Tuesday morning.
Development of IFR stratus may also vary from forecast
overnight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR conditions possible in showers and storms each day through
mid week.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>034-039-040-515>526.
OH...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for OHZ076.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...05