Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
726 FXUS61 KRLX 051833 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV Issued by National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 133 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Minor adjustments to PoP timing through this afternoon based on current trends. Otherwise forecast remains on track. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A few showers possible east of I-79 tomorrow evening as the reinforcing cold front crosses. 2) Much cooler temperatures for the weekend bring frost/freeze concerns across our counties that still have an active growing season. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Lingering shower activity should dissipate and shift east this afternoon with the cold front passage. Cloud deck should continue to scatter as shortwave ridging briefly builds overhead. Prevailing s-sw flow ahead of the approaching upper trough should maintain temperatures above seasonal averages tonight and Friday. Another round of showers are possible (low chance) as the upper trough pivots southeastward over the lower Great Lakes and the reinforcing cold front crosses late Friday/Fri Night. The deepest moisture generally remains closer to the lakes, but some moisture depth in the boundary layer and favorable wind direction for upslope could present a period for showers or drizzle overnight into Saturday. Given the encroaching cold temps (850hpa temps approaching -2C), there is some limited potential for snowflakes, though given the generally lack of moisture depth below, this may be cold drizzle vs snow. KEY MESSAGE 2... Seasonably cold temperatures are expected through the weekend as the trough shifts to the east and is replaced by building high pressure. Guidance has nighttime temperatures approaching freezing Saturday, Sunday, and Monday morning, with the potential coldest temps Monday as the ridge of high pressure settles over the region. Our counties that continue to have an active growing season west of Charleston have the most likely chance to see a temps below 32 (>75%) Sunday into Monday, but frost could impact many of the counties that continue to have an active growing season. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Conditions continue to improve with the departure of the cold front, with VFR prevailing at most sites this afternoon. Expect sites where MVFR lingers, EKN and BKW, to also improve for a period late this afternoon, though some of the model guidance lowers the ceilings again overnight, particularly at EKN. Outside of these noted restrictions, VFR should continue across the rest of the terminals through late Friday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Brief MVFR in developing Cu tomorrow afternoon. The Flight Category Consistency Table is unavailable at this time. AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... IFR conditions possible in river valley fog each night starting Saturday night. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Miller AVIATION...Miller