113
FXUS61 KRLX 111911
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
311 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will provide dry and warm conditions today. A
coastal low developing off the Carolinas will bring a chance for
light precipitation to the mountains Sunday and Sunday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 PM Saturday...

Dry conditions prevail today as a weak cold front washes out
across the area, providing nothing more than a bit of mid-level
cloud cover. Highs today will top out in the low/mid 70s across
the lowlands, with upper 50s and 60s in the mountains, all amid
mostly sunny skies.

A coastal low off the Carolinas gradually shifts northeast
tonight and Sunday. This brings increased cloud cover,
especially across the mountains, along with the potential for
isolated showers later tonight and Sunday, primarily along the
eastern slopes in Pocahontas/Randolph counties. Further west,
less cloud cover will facilitate some river valley fog
development tonight. Lows tonight will be in the 40s, with highs
on Sunday in the low/mid 70s across the lowlands, with 50s to
mid 60s in the mountains. Breezes of 15 to 25 mph are possible
across the northern lowlands/mountains on Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Saturday...

The aforementioned coastal low will gradually shift E/NE Sunday
night and Monday as it interacts with a weak upper trough across
the northeast, resulting in a continued potential for isolated
showers across the northeast mountains Sunday night into Monday
morning, with dry weather elsewhere. Building upper level
ridging results in area-wide dry weather thereafter.

Lows at night will generally range from the mid 40s to low 50s.
Highs Monday/Tuesday will remain above normal, with low/mid 70s
across the lowlands, with mid 50s to mid 60s in the mountains.
Mostly clear skies Monday onwards will result in the potential
for some river valley fog each night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 PM Saturday...

A dry cold front is progged to push through the forecast area on
Wednesday, resulting in a return to near normal or slightly
below normal temperatures Wednesday through Friday, all amid
continued dry weather and plenty of sunshine as surface high
pressure builds in from the northwest. Favorable radiational
cooling conditions Wednesday/Thursday nights results in the
potential for frost across the mountain valleys Wednesday night,
with more widespread potential Thursday night, even extending
into portions of the lowlands. Some river valley steam fog is
expected at night given a large air/river temperature difference.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 PM Saturday...

Widespread VFR today will give way to increasing clouds
overnight across the higher terrain, along with the development
of some river valley fog, primarily across the lowlands. River
valley fog could result in brief MVFR (or worse) conditions at
HTS/PKB drifting over from the Ohio River, while also at CRW
from the Elk River. Any fog should lift/dissipate from ~12-14Z. In
addition, brief MVFR/IFR could occur at BKW/EKN with stratus
late tonight and Sunday morning, but overall, general downslope
flow is expected to maintain mainly VFR conditions. A few
isolated showers are possible across the northeast mountains
late in the TAF period.

Light and variable flow is expected today, with light NNE or
calm flow tonight. Northeast flow develops on Sunday, with gusts
of 15-20 kts possible in the mountains (and at CKB/EKN) towards
the end of the TAF period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium with fog/stratus late tonight and
Sunday morning, high otherwise.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog at CRW/HTS/PKB late tonight could vary
from the forecast. MVFR/IFR could occur at BKW/EKN late tonight
and Sunday morning with stratus.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
At least patchy IFR river valley fog is possible each morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GW
NEAR TERM...GW
SHORT TERM...GW
LONG TERM...GW
AVIATION...GW