768
FXUS61 KRLX 142314
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
714 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Daily chances for mainly diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms continue through the week as a warm and moist
airmass remains in place.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 447 PM Monday...

Conveyor belt of showers and thunderstorms will continue into
the evening with heavy rainfall and cloud to ground lightning
being the main threats. PWATs are between 1.7" and 2.1" across
the area, so training showers and thunderstorms will lead to
instances of flash flooding. CAPE values between 2,500 and
3,000 J/Kg, high theta-e presence, and weak shear (less than
10kts) will lead to pulse-oriented thunderstorms with high and
efficient rainfall rates.

Did increase coverage and density of river valley fog tonight as
well due to the rainfall and moisture that will remain trapped
at the surface.

As of 1207 PM Monday...

Warm, humid and unstable continues to be the name of the game in the
near term period. Frontal boundary just to our north should sag a
little farther south today towards the Ohio River vicinity. Showers
and storms, already apparent on radar, will continue throughout the
near term, both from passing weak waves and heating. Very heavy
rainfall can be expected with any storms, with observed PW values
around the 2 inch mark across much of the area. Overall, no
significant severe weather threat is anticipated, however, an
isolated strong to severe storm cannot be completely ruled out, with
a damaging wind threat owing to precip loading. Frontal boundary may
move slightly north on Tuesday, with the continuation of the warm,
humid, unstable conditions, with shower and storm activity ramping
back up in the afternoon hours again.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1207 PM Monday...

Wednesday and Thursday look to remain unsettled across the area. A
low pressure system will move into, and eventually east across the
Great Lakes region during the period, dragging a front closer to the
area towards the end of the period. Multiple shortwaves moving
through the area will trigger showers and storms at times, with
heavy downpours. There is the potential we could hit heat advisory
criteria on Wednesday and Thursday afternoons, but afternoon storm
activity could damper this.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1207 PM Monday...

Unsettled weather continues in the long term period, with a
continuation of the warm and humid conditions, with showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 714 PM Monday...

Showers and thunderstorms will continue across the area into the
evening. Mostly impacting CRW, CKB, BKW, and EKN where MVFR or
IFR conditions are possible with any heavier showers and
thunderstorms.

Convective activity is expected to taper off after ~03-04z.
Expecting dense river valley fog to form overnight due to the
recent heavy rainfall across the area. IFR or lower is possible
at a majority of the TAF sites, especially CRW, CKB, EKN, and
PKB. Winds will be mostly calm overnight.

Impacts from fog will remain until it dissipates between
~12-14z Tuesday. VFR conditions will resume afterwards. Winds
will be light and variable Tuesday. Another round of showers and
thunderstorms are expected Tuesday afternoon, mostly across the
mountains.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, location, and intensity of showers
and thunderstorms and fog overnight may vary from forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EDT 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
Brief periods of IFR conditions possible under showers and
thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours.
IFR or worse fog is also possible overnight.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SL
NEAR TERM...SL/LTC
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...LTC