857
FXUS61 KRLX 291004
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
604 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front passes through today bringing a chance for
light rain, mainly to the north. Otherwise, mainly dry
conditions except for the mountains continue through next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 130 AM Friday...

A dry cold front crosses the area today and then we will be
under the influence of high pressure at the surface which should
be good enough to hold us settled. However, even though there
is very low chances, a small probability remains that an
isolated shower could develop to our north and may traverse into
the CWA during the afternoon and early evening.

This would be courtesy of a low pressure system far to our
north over Canada which has an upper level trough across our
region influencing us slightly with cold air advection and
possible shower activity across the region, mainly to the north.
Overall, not expecting any rain, however we cannot completely
rule an isolated one out as stated before.

Temperatures will flourish below seasonable in the cold air
advection with northwesterly flow keeping the area into the 70s
across the lowlands and 60s across the mountains. Some of the
Tri-state area may reach or breach the 80 degree mark. Partly to
mostly cloudy skies will help keep these temperatures down as
well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 AM Friday...

As we get into Saturday a more elongated portion of the
aforementioned upper trough gets into our area and then creates
the possibility of some diurnal shower activity just to our
south, but will likely remain confined to outside our CWA.
Although central blended guidance does not have any PoPs in our
area we could see a shower or two, isolated, breach the CWA
across our southeast VA and our southern most WV territories.

Temperatures should remain the same, which is below seasonable
and almost a mirror image of Friday`s temperatures. Mostly
clear skies should dominate the day with a northerly flow to
reinforce that cold air advection.

On Sunday, we get a change in wind direction to a more
easterly component across the lowlands and more southeasterly
flow across the mountains. This will promote cloud development
across the mountains which could squeeze out a shower or storm
along the eastern slopes due to the upslope effect. This will be
supported by the upper level trough still in the area although
will be moving out by the late evening.

The through opens up to a closed upper low it seems according
to models by Monday. This may keep some slight chances of
an isolated shower or storm across the mountains once again for
Monday afternoon and evening. The upper low moves off toward
the northeast by Tuesday. Temperatures for Monday will rise
slightly due to the change in flow and the lack of cloud
coverage across the lowlands maintaining similar conditions as
previous days.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 130 AM Friday...

From then on, another more broader trough enters the region
from the west associated with a northern low pressure system
headed toward the Great Lakes on Tuesday going into Thursday.

This will keep chances for shower or thunderstorms on the table
for mainly the entire area and not only diurnal, but non-
diurnal chances as well. This system will bring more cloud
coverage and cold air advection to bring temperatures down
slightly to promote well below seasonable weather through the
rest of this period and beyond.

By Thursday, cold frontal passage will start to take place
supported by strong upper level flow and a jet stream which
should bring more active weather into Friday with much cooler
weather. The positive side to this is that we will endure more
quiet and cooler weather thereafter to keep Fall like
temperatures across the area for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 610 AM Friday...

Except for some very minimal valley fog at EKN/PKB dissipating
by 13Z. The rest of the area will remain VFR this period. We
are dry enough and winds right off the surface are strong enough
potentially hold off development elsewhere. Some valley fog may
get into CRW but the probability was too low to mention in
their TAF.

By the afternoon, some Cu will develop in the afternoon as a
moisture starved cold front passes through promoting
northwesterly wind by the afternoon and into the evening. The
surface flow will relax tonight and some valley fog will
possibly be able to develop once again, but will likely be
confined to the mountains.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog may vary from forecast at EKN/PKB.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EDT 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR conditions possible in patchy river valley fog each morning
through this weekend.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JZ
NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...JZ