551
FXUS61 KRLX 151119
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
719 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
After fog burns off this morning, today will be a bit cooler
than yesterday. However, an extended stretch of hot and dry
weather will begin Sunday and last much of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 215 AM Saturday...

Fog has developed and is noted in almost every valley across the
northeastern quadrant of the CWA, and may spread further
southwestward as the night goes on. There was some fog earlier
over SE Ohio and the Mid-Ohio Valley area, but a bit of dry
advection behind the cold front has helped clear that out, and
as of right now it seems unlikely to return. Fog should burn off
for most areas by around 800 AM or so, but could linger a bit
longer in a few valleys.

Behind yesterday`s weak cold front, most of the CWA is forecast
to be a few degrees less hot than yesterday, but still near
normal for mid-June. It will be sunny and dry across the area,
with gentle N-NE`ly breezes. Clear and calm conditions are
expected overnight, with lows ranging from the low 50s in the
highest elevations to the low 60s in some lowland areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 310 AM Saturday...

Key Point:
* Heat wave initiates next week.

An upper level ridge of high pressure strengthens over the
southeastern US on Sunday, then gravitates northward on Monday and
Tuesday. Dry conditions are expected for the remainder of the
weekend, then a low chance of a few showers or afternoon storms
returns on Monday.

The biggest concern for the beginning of next week will be the
initiation of a heat wave across the region. Highs on Sunday should
reach low to mid 90s in the lowlands and 70s to 80s along the
mountains. Temperatures then rise even more for the work week, with
80s to mid 90s expected along the mountains each day. Meanwhile, mid
to upper 90s are anticipated for the lowlands. Between heat and some
humidity, it is likely to feel more like upper 90s to low 100s in
the lowlands both Monday and Tuesday afternoon. Starting Monday,
temperatures are projected to climb towards record highs in
some locations.

     Forecast / Record High Temperatures
------------------------------------------------
-                 Mon, 6/17     |   Tue, 6/18
------------------------------------------------
- Charleston  | 93 /  98 (1936) | 95 / 98 (1944)
- Huntington  | 94 / 100 (1936) | 96 / 98 (1944)
- Clarksburg  | 93 /  96 (1967) | 96 / 96 (1936)
- Parkersburg | 94 /  98 (1936) | 96 / 98 (1944)
- Beckley     | 87 /  93 (1936) | 89 / 93 (1936)
- Elkins      | 91 /  92 (1936) | 93 / 91 (1994)
------------------------------------------------

As temperatures turn hotter, a few heat safety tips to remember are:
* Drink plenty of fluids
* Wear light, loose fitting clothing
* Take breaks in the shade or air conditioned locations
* Never leave children or pets in an unattended vehicle
* Check on elderly or heat sensitive individuals

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 310 AM Saturday...

Key Point:
* Hot weather continues into the second half of the work week.

High pressure remains in control over the area during the second
half of the work week. This should sustain rather hot conditions for
the entirety of the long term forecast period. Mid to late week
highs are currently forecast to approach or even exceed record
high temperatures at some of the climate sites.

While drier conditions are expected for the majority of the
forecast period, a few models hint at the possibility of some
afternoon showers and storms -- particularly towards the end of
the week.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 710 AM Saturday...

After any lingering fog or low stratus burns off in the first
hour of the TAF valid period, we can expect VFR conditions and
gentle N-NE`ly winds today, turning E-SE`ly overnight.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None anticipated.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               SAT 06/15/24
UTC 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
EDT 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    M    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK/JLB
NEAR TERM...FK
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...FK