183
FXUS61 KRLX 160308
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1108 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure brings cooler and continued dry weather to close
out the work week. Warmer Saturday followed by a cold front with
rain and wind Sunday. Cooler to start the new work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1100 PM Wednesday...

Mostly clear skies have worked into the northern lowlands, with
additional gradual clearing further south/west as the night goes
on. Did tweak overnight lows up a hair and fog potential down a
bit given SFC-H850 flow across the area and further upstream to
the north. Some patchy river valley fog remains possible, but
coverage will be significantly less than what occurred this
morning.

As of 600 PM Wednesday...

Persistent broken to overcast mid-level clouds continue to
slowly traverse southeast across the forecast area, with some
clearing further upstream. As a result, have significantly
increased cloud cover into early tonight from central guidance
to reflect current observations and trends. Clearing will
gradually build in from the north throughout the night, but
exactly how much and how soon remains a bit of a question. Given
such, the only tweak to the Frost Advisory was to add in
southeast Pocahontas County. A bit of patchy frost across the
typically coldest northern lowland valleys cannot entirely be
ruled out, but given some movement overnight in the low-levels
hindering optimal decoupling, any impacts appear to be relatively
low at this point. The rest of the forecast remains on track.

As of 245 PM Wednesday...

After another morning of fog slow to burn off, and day of
persistent low cloud, a fresh Canadian high slowly building
toward the area from the Great Lakes will bring in cooler and
much drier air tonight through Thursday, eradicating the
shallow moisture that has been trapped beneath the low level
inversion. As such, low cloud is not expected Thursday morning.
In addition, with the high still centered up over the Great
Lakes, leaving a pressure gradient over the forecast area, fog
should be limited to the better sheltered river valleys, mainly
in and near the northern mountains.

This is also where frost is possible, as temperatures bottom
out just a little below normal tonight. A frost advisory remains
in effect for areas in and near the northern mountains. The
cooler air will confine lowland highs to the mid to upper 60s
Thursday despite the absence of the persistent low cloud of the
past couple of days, although this is near to only a little
below normal for this time of year. Relative humidity
percentages bottoming out in the 30s for much of the area
Thursday will not present much of a heightened fire spread
concern given very light winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 600 PM Wednesday...

Have added Barbour/Webster/Upshur Counties to the Freeze Watch
for Thursday night.

As of 245 PM Wednesday...

High pressure builds in in ernest Thursday night, providing
ideal radiational cooling conditions within the center of the
fresh, cool, Canadian air mass. This is likely to result in
lows as much as ten degrees below normal, equating to below
freezing temperatures in the better sheltered northern mountain
valleys, where a Freeze Watch has been issued. Low spots out
across the northern and central lowlands, and valleys within the
central and southern mountains, could also have frost come
early Friday morning, and a Frost Advisory may be needed for
these areas.

Highs will top out near normal Friday with sunshine at least
through midday. Mid and high cloud will spill over the ridge
Friday afternoon and night. Relative humidity percentages
bottoming out in the 30s and 20s Friday will not present much of
a heightened fire spread concern given light winds.

With increasing southerly flow between exiting high pressure,
and the next cold front approaching from the west, and the mid
and high cloud Friday night giving way to sunshine on Saturday,
a stout warming trend takes place. Lows will be back up around
normal Friday night, and then highs will be well above normal
on Saturday, in the upper 70s to low 80s across the lowlands.
Clouds may start to increase from the west again late, ahead of
the next system, but showers and any thunderstorms associated
with it should remain to the west.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 310 PM Wednesday...

Updated to evince that the Weather Prediction center 5 percent
risk for excessive rainfall is over the middle Ohio Valley, and
that the 12Z ECMWF has joined the other models with the more
progressive solution exiting the Sunday system early next week.

As of 245 PM Wednesday...

A digging, amplifying short wave trough will drive a strong cold
front through the area on Sunday. This may bring rain showers
into at least the middle Ohio Valley Saturday night, mainly
overnight, too late for much chance of thunder. Central guidance
has backed away from the chance for thunderstorms Saturday
night, and the Storm Prediction Center 15 percent risk for
severe weather remains well upstream, over the lower and mid
Mississippi Valley.

Showers will make for a wet day on Sunday, and the pressure
gradient associated with a low pressure center potentially
deepening to as low as 990 mb over the Great Lakes will make for
a windy day as well. Gusts of 25 to 30 mph in the forecast may
need ramped up a bit as the time gets closer. The clouds and
showers Sunday will limit surface heating, but there is still
the slight chance for a mainly afternoon thunderstorms just die
to the amplitude and strength of the system.

The Storm Prediction Center has not highlighted a Severe
Thunderstorm risk for Day 5, Sunday and Sunday night, but with
the amplified system tapping ample Gulf moisture, the Weather
Prediction center has placed the area under a 5 percent risk
for excessive rainfall.

Indeed, the digging short wave intensifies into a closed low as
the system pulls on out of the area Sunday night and Monday.
The ECMWF closes the low off farther south and west than other
models, resulting in the chance for showers lingering into
Monday, which would also turn out cooler and cloudier.

Models also diverge on a second short wave trough potentially
following on the heels of the first, and with it a second or
secondary cold front crossing early next week. Either way, the
next work week will start off cool, and, at times, a bit
unsettled.

The clouds and rain hold high temperatures just a little above
normal on Sunday, and then the cooler air to start the work week
sends temperatures a little below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 750 PM Wednesday...

Area-wide VFR conditions at present as a BKN-OVC mid-level deck
continues to slowly shift south across the area. This will
gradually give way to mainly clear skies later tonight amid some
developing river valley fog. Fog coverage should be less
widespread than this morning, with restrictions (VLIFR)
currently only coded in for CRW/EKN later tonight. Can`t
entirely rule out some fog from the Ohio River drifting over and
briefly affecting HTS/PKB near dawn or shortly thereafter, but
the probability of occurrence is low enough to just go with
VCFG for the time being. Any fog that does develop will
lift/dissipate from ~12-1430Z, giving way to a widespread VFR
day amid mostly clear skies.

Calm or light northerly flow is expected tonight, with light
N/NNE flow on Thursday. Occasional breezes of 15-20 kts are
possible during the afternoon in/near the mountains.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium tonight with river valley fog, high
otherwise.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, location, and intensity of
restrictions with river valley fog late tonight into Thursday
morning may vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             THU 10/16/25
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    H    H

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
Patchy IFR river valley fog is possible Friday and Saturday
mornings. IFR in rain is possible Sunday and Sunday night.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday for WVZ032-039-
     040-521>526.
     Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning
     for WVZ039-040-521>526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM/GW
SHORT TERM...TRM/GW
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...GW