Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
200 FXUS61 KRLX 021814 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 114 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No major forecast changes accompany this latest forecast update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Light rain showers gradually peter out this evening, followed by brief dry weather on Tuesday. 2) Turning active once again on Wednesday with a cold frontal passage. Unsettled weather and much colder temperatures advertised for this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Light showers continue to stream in from the southwest this afternoon amid a passing mid-level disturbance. Observing stations within the forecast area average around a quarter of an inch in rainfall amounts thus far today, with a few stations in southeast Ohio closer to half an inch. Forecast trends depict showers gradually petering out through this evening, with skies clearing out overnight into Tuesday. The Central Appalachians will be on the western flank of high pressure parked over the Delmarva region, yielding dry weather and warming temperatures for Tuesday. Afternoon highs are progged to stretch into the upper 70s across the lowlands and 60s to low 70s along the higher terrain. KEY MESSAGE 2... Dry weather will be fleeting on Tuesday, as the next disturbance takes aim for the area heading into midweek. This will be in the form of a nearly stacked low pressure system trekking into the Great Lakes with a cold front stemming down into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Global models remain in decent agreement of showers and isolated storms encroaching ahead of the front beginning around Wednesday afternoon. Precipitation chances will prevail into the overnight hours and Thursday morning as the front passes overhead. Despite the front`s complete passage, low end precipitation chances prosper into the end of the work week for at least the higher terrain. Temperatures settle back into their seasonable norms Thursday and Friday before a bigger push of cold weather arrives for this weekend. A strengthening upper level trough barrels down into the Ohio Valley by the start of the weekend, with plunging temperatures moving down from the north. This will reintroduce sub-freezing overnight lows for the bulk of the forecast area beginning late Saturday night into next week, with daytime highs hovering in the 50s/60s. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Light rain in the lower elevations of the region has spawned occasional ceiling restrictions at HTS today, but otherwise all other terminals remain in VFR. Precipitation chances lower through this evening, returning to a dry forecast for the remainder of the valid TAF period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 EST 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time, however isolated IFR conditions may be possible in precipitation mid to late week. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...05 AVIATION...05