529
FXUS61 KRLX 170025
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
825 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers remain possible through Tuesday, as another system
approaches. Flow begins to strengthen Tuesday, slightly easing
the flood threat, but increasing the severe potential.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 825 PM Monday...

Have canceled the Flood Watch a bit early, as the threat for
heavy rainfall and additional flooding have waned. The rest of
the forecast remains on track.

As of 130 PM Monday...

Key Points:

* Warm, moist airmass with limited, but deep instability continues
  to yield efficient and heavy rainfall from showers and
  thunderstorms

* Isolated instances of flash flash flooding are possible,
  especially where soils have been locally compromised from recent
  heavy rainfall

* Limited risk for severe weather outside of flooding, although some
  locally gusty winds could cause tree damage with any convection,
  especially where soils are very moist from recent rainfall

* Landslides will also be possible where ground conditions remain
  very moist, although the fully greened up vegetation should help
  to hold things together

The atmosphere remains primed to produce efficient and heavy
rainfall with precipitable water values 1.7 to nearly 2.0 inches,
deep warm cloud depths, deep, but skinny instability profiles and
H700 steering flow of around 10KTs out of the southwest. Should see
less coverage and a little less potential for training than with
activity yesterday, however, soils have become even more compromised
by recent rainfall with 3hr flash flood guidance now contain some
fairly widespread areas of less than 1.5 inches across the north
half of the forecast area.

A combination of filtered insolation, surface convergence along a
weak boundary draped along the Ohio River and through Central WV and
very weak waves embedded in southwesterly flow will be the primary
drivers for convective initiation this afternoon and evening (minus
aforementioned heating). Rainfall rates of generally 1 to 1.5 inches
per hour will be possible in the heaviest precipitation cores, with
locally higher rates possible in collapsing cores. With the
aforementioned weak upper forcing and lower level convergence,
activity is expected to persist well into the evening and perhaps
even into the overnight. A flash flood watch remains in effect
through tonight for much of the area through 10 PM.

With a weakly sheared column, not expecting severe thunderstorms
through this afternoon and evening, but sub-severe thunderstorm
winds near any collapsing cells could still cause some tree damage,
especially in area with very wet soils.

A belt of stronger flow is expected to move overhead by early
Tuesday morning and will persist through much of the day Tuesday
while the column retains its deep moisture and generally poor mid-
level lapse rates. While this will result in faster storm motions,
it will also allow for updraft organization and more persistent
updrafts. Wet bulb zeros remain quite high given the moisture laden
airmass, so would expect the primary threat with any convection to
be damaging winds. Also couldn`t completely rule out a brief tornadic
threat neat any lingering weak surface features where low level flow
could be locally veered, although this appears to be a very low end
threat. Localized flooding will continue to be a concern over
compromised soils with heavy rainfall rates but there is some
question as to the extent of convective coverage during the day in
the absence of a focusing boundary. With more limited coverage, more
progressive storm motions would help to limit the threat.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 150 PM Monday...

Unsettled weather pattern, with a warm and humid air mass in place,
continues in the short term period. Additional showers and storms
can be expected on Wednesday, particularly during peak heating
hours, and from any passing disturbance. Flash flood treat not as
great on Wednesday as previous days owing to increased flow, but
certainly cant completely rule it out if a location receives
repetitive downpours. There is a marginal risk for severe on
Wednesday, with an increase in instability expected, but shear is
relatively weak. However, with the saturated ground, even if a storm
is not severe, tree damage will be an issue.  On Thursday, an upper
trough, will push east through the area, with the frontal boundary
that has been located to our north, finally sweeping through the
area. Severe weather may be possible during this period, and spc
already has parts of the area highlighted for Thursday, with a
damaging wind threat looking to be most likely.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 150 PM Monday...

Overall drier weather is expected Friday and Saturday behind the
departing system, however, occasional light showers cannot be
completely ruled out particularly on Friday as an additional
shortwave crosses the area. Otherwise, at this point, expecting a
mainly dry, and hot weekend with ridging in place.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 755 PM Monday...

While isolated heavy showers persist this evening, the
probability of a direct hit on a TAF site is low at this time.

Recent rainfall and partially clear sky will allow fog to form
once again overnight tonight, but it will become a battle
between fog ans MVFR stratocumulus which is likely to form
overnight. Thus have IFR fog all sites between 08 and 13Z
Tuesday morning, except as early as 05Z at EKN with an IFR
ceiling.

Any fog will burn off around 13Z Tuesday, but MVFR
stratocumulus and even MVFR visibility in rain showers are
possible Tuesday morning.

Visibility and ceilings should improve to VFR by Tuesday
afternoon, but showers and thunderstorms will again be possible.
Any thunderstorm Tuesday afternoon can be strong and heavy,
with IFR to VLIFR conditions and erratic strong wind gusts on a
direct hit. Confidence was too low to explicitly code in at
this time.

Light and variable to calm surface flow through the overnight
will become light southwest Tuesday morning, and may even become
a bit gusty at BKW Tuesday afternoon. Light southwest flow aloft
tonight into Tuesday morning will increase a bit Tuesday
afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Locally dense fog possible wherever the
sky becomes sufficiently clear overnight. On the other hand,
showers cannot be ruled out tonight. Timing and intensity of
showers Tuesday may vary, with thunderstorms also possible
Tuesday afternoon.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            TUE 06/17/25
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    M    M    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    H    M    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    L    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    H    H    L    H    H    L    M    M

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
Brief IFR possible in rounds of showers and thunderstorms
Tuesday evening, and again on Thursday. Locally heavy rain
during the afternoons and evenings could yield patchy fog or low
stratus Wednesday and Friday mornings.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM/JP/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/JP
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM