860
FXUS61 KRLX 220945
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
445 AM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain ends today, dry through the weekend. A low pressure system
tracks into the Great Lakes Tuesday into Wednesday bringing rain,
followed by a significantly colder air mass for Thanksgiving.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 120 AM Saturday...

A quasi-stationary boundary remains draped across the forecast
area early this morning, maintaining widespread low clouds and
areas of light rain or drizzle.

This boundary is expected to begin shifting slowly southeastward
over the next several hours, exiting the forecast area shortly
after daybreak. As the boundary departs, large-scale lift will
diminish, causing measurable precipitation to end from northwest
to southeast. However, continued weak northwesterly flow at the
surface, coupled with residual low-level moisture banked against
the terrain, will likely keep drizzle and low clouds persisting
along the windward slopes of the mountains through this
afternoon.

As high pressure begins to build in from the west later today,
some clearing can be expected across our northwestern counties,
but large scale improvement in cloud cover may take until this
evening. Tonight, with high pressure settling overhead and skies
clearing, radiational cooling will allow temperatures to drop
into the 30s and 40s. This setup typically favors the formation
of river valley fog, particularly given the recent rainfall, but
this will be somewhat contingent on how quickly remnant low
level cloudiness can clear.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 120 AM Saturday...

High pressure and dry weather will dominate this period as an
upper-level split flow pattern develops. Sunday will feature the
passage of a weak, moisture-starved reinforcing cold front. This
feature is expected to cross the region dry, serving mainly to
reinforce the seasonable air mass and perhaps generate a few
transient clouds.

Monday remains dry as the surface high shifts eastward.
Temperatures will moderate, with highs climbing back into the
60s across the lowlands as return flow establishes ahead of the
next system.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 120 AM Saturday...

The next significant chance for precipitation arrives early to
mid-week. A pair of disturbances is progged to emerge from the
Rockies, with consensus shifting toward the southern stream
disturbance being the primary driver for local weather.
Numerical guidance, excluding the operational GFS, suggests a
lee low will form and maintain connection with upper-level
support, tracking into the Upper Great Lakes by Tuesday
afternoon.

The atmospheric response to this low track includes the
development of a 40-50KT low-level jet at H850, with its nose
oriented across the Middle Ohio Valley by Tuesday morning. While
instability looks to be limited to nil, limited much of a
thunder threat, strong low-level mass convergence, moisture
advection, and isentropic lift driven by the LLJ should be
sufficient to produce widespread light rain starting Tuesday
morning and continuing into Tuesday evening.

A cold front will cross the region Tuesday night into Wednesday.
While this feature will squeeze out additional precipitation,
total rainfall amounts appear modest. In the wake of the front,
parcel trajectories appear more westerly than previously
forecast. These trajectories should keep the bulk of lake-
enhanced moisture to the north of the forecast area during the
day on Thanksgiving.

The primary story for the latter half of the week will be the
temperature change. Following the cold frontal passage Wednesday
night, a significantly colder air mass will advect into the
region. High temperatures on Thanksgiving Day are expected to
struggle to exit the 40s, with lows dropping well into the 20s
and 30s. Dry but chilly conditions will persist into Friday as
high pressure settles over the region.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 445 AM Saturday...

A slow moving cold front will continue to sink slowly to the
southeast this morning bringing rain and perhaps an embedded
thunderstorm resulting in widespread flight restrictions along and
behind it. This feature should clear the area shortly after daybreak
this morning, but MVFR/IFR conditions will linger behind it for
several hours either as stratus or moisture lifting into a
stratocumulus deck.

Will see flight conditions slowly improve from northwest to
southeast this morning into this evening. KBKW will likely see
restrictions persist longest due to upslope flow maintaining low
clouds against the terrain.

Depending how quickly skies clear this evening, valley fog may
redevelop quickly.

Winds will remain generally light favoring a
northerly/northwesterly direction.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low this morning, medium this afternoon and
evening.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of improvement of flight conditions
behind a departing cold front may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    SAT 11/22/25
UTC 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
EST 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    M    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR valley fog is possible Monday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JP