422
FXUS61 KRLX 161605
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1205 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A tropically influenced airmass remains over the region with
numerous weak disturbances passing through. Locally heavy
showers and storms are possible each afternoon.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1203 PM Wednesday...

Showers and thunderstorms will return today as a weak disturbance
aloft tracks from west to east. The northern mountains and portions
of northern West Virginia and southeast Ohio will be at greatest
risk of seeing rain today. Heavy downpours will continue to be the
main concern with very high moisture content in the atmosphere.
Precipitable Water (PWAT) values are forecast to range from 1.8
inches in the mountains to 2.2 inches along and west of the Ohio
River. While wind shear is expected to remain weak (20-25 knots), it
may be sufficient to support a localized damaging wind threat. The
Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a marginal risk of severe
weather for the area today, with damaging winds being the primary
concern.

Thunderstorms will gradually diminish after sunset, leading to
generally quiet conditions overnight. Thursday will be another
repeat of todays weather with additional afternoon showers and
thunderstorms as another upper-level disturbance passes by.

The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has issued a slight risk of
excessive rainfall across the northern portions of the area today,
closely aligning with the 500-mb shortwave`s track. The excessive
rainfall threat for Thursday is marginal, likely due to weaker
forcing. However, given increasingly saturated ground conditions and
high atmospheric moisture content, close monitoring for flooding
potential will remain crucial.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1204 PM Wednesday...

The excessive rainfall threat will increase heading into the weekend
as a front approaches the middle Ohio Valley and becomes stationary.
Models are in strong agreement that a southwesterly flow of moisture
into a parked frontal boundary will create numerous showers and
thunderstorms each day. Widespread PWAT values are expected to be 2
inches or greater across the region.

With numerous days of scattered to widespread thunderstorm activity
and an already saturated ground, flooding will be closely monitored
each day this weekend. The severe threat again remains low
throughout the weekend, but isolated damaging wind gusts cannot be
ruled out in some thunderstorms.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1204 PM Wednesday...

A retreating frontal boundary on Sunday, coupled with residual upper-
level energy and a moist southwesterly flow from the Gulf, will
maintain a risk of heavy rainfall. Beyond Sunday, the forecast
becomes more uncertain due to diverging model solutions. The ECMWF
suggests a cold front may clear the region on Monday, bringing high
pressure and a brief break in the rainfall Tuesday. Conversely, the
GFS indicates the front may linger, leading to continued unsettled
weather Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 650 AM Wednesday...

Patchy fog will dissipate in the next couple hours allowing
flight conditions to return to VFR early this morning. Showers
and storms will spread across the area during the day, with most
extensive coverage occurring during the afternoon and evening
hours. Periods of MVFR to IFR conditions will be possible
within storms today, then activity lessens tonight.

Winds should remain light with a south to south west direction
during the day, though stronger gusts may occur in storms.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, locations and intensity of showers
and thunderstorms could vary from forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
Brief periods of IFR conditions possible under showers and
thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours
through the week. IFR or worse fog is also possible overnight,
especially where any heavy rain falls during the day.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...20