197
FXUS61 KRLX 271743
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
143 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
18Z aviation discussion has been issued.

Lowered precipitation chances through early Monday afternoon
based on strong capping at the base of the EML. Refined timing
for potential convective complexes late Monday evening into
Tuesday morning and again Tuesday afternoon. Maintained severe
wind and localized flash flooding threat messaging in line with
recent guidance trends.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Multiple thunderstorms complexes track near/in the region
late this afternoon through Tuesday morning. Some of this
activity may contain gusty/damaging wind gusts and heavy rain.

2. A conditional severe weather and flash flooding threat
exists Tuesday afternoon across the southern coalfields if
sufficient airmass recovery occurs behind morning convection.

3. Drier and quieter weather returns Wednesday through Friday
with seasonable temperatures, though periods of hazy skies are
expected due to western US and Canadian wildfire smoke.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Early morning surface observations reveal patchy dense valley
fog across sheltered river basins. Will likely issue a special
weather statement in the next couple hours for patchy fog for
the morning commute. Fog and low stratus will burn off by 9 AM.
A capping inversion centered near H825 beneath a diffuse
elevated mixed layer will inhibit surface-based convective
initiation through mid-afternoon. Daytime highs will reach the
upper 80s to lower 90s across the lowlands and the upper 70s to
middle 80s across higher terrain.

Considerable uncertainly remains regarding convective evolution
with one more more ridge riding complexes likely to near/cross
the region through Tuesday morning.

Late this afternoon into tonight, a convective complex is
expected to organize over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes
within a favorable kinematic regime featuring 35 to 50KTs of
0-6km bulk shear. Driven by an embedded shortwave in
northwesterly H500 flow, this complex will track southeastward
along a sharp buoyancy gradient. While the core of this activity
is favored to pass west of the forecast area into central
Kentucky, the eastern fringe may brush southeast Ohio, northeast
Kentucky, and western West Virginia between 9 PM to 1 AM.

A second convective complex is progged to move out of the Great
Lakes early Tuesday morning ahead of an amplifying H500
vorticity maximum and a 45 to 50KT mid-level speed max.
This early morning complex brings a continued threat for
gusty winds and heavy downpours through mid-morning Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Considerable forecast uncertainty exists for Tuesday afternoon,
as severe potential remains highly contingent on morning
convective clearing and thermodynamic recovery. If the morning
storm complex exits quickly enough to allow 3 to 5 hours of
solar insolation, destabilization will yield MLCAPE values of
1500 to 2000 J/kg ahead of an advancing surface cold front.

There is also a substantial run to run inconsistency in the
placement of the strongest wind field for Tuesday morning,
generally fluctuating anywhere from central KY to central VA
over the last 24 hours. The main threat with this activity would
be damaging wind gusts as storms should grow upscale fairly
rapidly. Should the higher end kinematic wind field materialize
could certainly envision some embedded super cellular structures
with an attendant marginal tornado threat. At this time we
remain outlooked by SPC in day 2 for wind/hail only which seems
reasonable given the substantial uncertainty.

Although this activity should be fairly progressive
given the forcing, rainfall rates exceeding 1 to 2 inches per
hour could trigger rapid basin response and localized flash
flooding.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Following the cold frontal passage Tuesday night, H850 cold air
advection and building surface high pressure from Canada will
usher in a significantly drier airmass for Wednesday through
Friday. Precipitable water values will drop to between 0.75 and
1.00 inch, near the 10th percentile for late July. High
temperatures will reset to near-normal values, ranging from the
upper 70s in the Northeast Mountains to the mid 80s in the
lowlands. Due to ongoing large-scale wildfires in the Inland
Northwest and Ontario, northwesterly flow aloft will advect
elevated smoke into the region, leading to periods of hazy skies
through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CIGs will continue to lift throughout the afternoon, with the
shallow cu field becoming VFR area-wide. VFR will prevail for
the afternoon and evening at all terminals, with calm and
variable winds transitioning towards the south and southeast
tonight. Winds will become breezy overnight into Tuesday ahead
of an incoming storm system, with sustained winds of 10-15 kt
ahead of an incoming cold front. Clusters of TSTMs are forecast
to approach from the northwest overnight into late Tuesday
morning, which will result in temporary reductions to IFR or
lower, in addition to brief downpours. -SHRA will then last
through the end of the TAF period at all terminals, although
TSTMs cannot be ruled out. Valley fog will also develop during
the predawn hours Tuesday, but confidence is low on how low
VSBYs will become due to the passage of -SHRA/-TSRA.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High this afternoon and into the late evening,
then medium overnight with respect to fog and TSTM coverage.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog may vary in coverage and extent at all
terminals overnight. Thunderstorms may continue later than
forecast at all terminals.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS
CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
EDT 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
Lingering -SHRA/-TSRA will be possible at some of the terminals
Tuesday afternoon and would be accompanied by IFR conditions,
before clearing prior to dusk Tuesday. IFR conditions will
continue to be possible with valley fog each morning Wednesday
through Friday across the region.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JP
AVIATION...Sincavage