502
FXUS61 KRLX 011828
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
128 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A system brings wintry weather tonight into Tuesday. High
pressure again mid week. Additional systems possible to end the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 125 PM Monday...

Dry and cool today as high pressure slowly departs to our east.
Clouds will quickly overspread the region again this evening as an
upper trough over the plains spurs development of a surface low
across the southern Gulf region states, gradually ejecting northeast
towards our area with approach of the trough. Moisture will spread
northeast towards our area later this evening, with a wintry mix
expected in spots. Precipitation could initially start out as snow,
even across the mountains, as atmosphere gradually moistens from top
down, resulting in cooling of the profile. However, as warm nose
aloft develops in response to strengthening southwesterly winds
around 850mb, should see a transition to sleet or freezing rain
across the higher terrain.

Still looking at development of a warm wedge across parts of the WV
lowlands, with uncertainty still lingering in how extensive it will
be. Best bets for mostly rain still look to be across southern coal
fields, with a mix expected across much of the remainder of the
lowlands. Areas across north central lowlands, i.e. Clarksburg area
for example, may stay mainly snow during this event. However, it
seems like models have problems with forecasting northern extent of
warm wedge at times, and this event would be no different. For now,
the blend of models does transition our north central lowland
counties to a brief period of rain or a wintry mix on Tuesday, and
have maintained that thinking.

Across the Mid Ohio Valley region and SE Ohio, precipitation, as is
often the case in these events, should remain mainly snow, although
could see some rain during the afternoon hours.

The low will quickly skirt off to the east Tuesday afternoon, with
lingering precipitation in its wake. Some of this could transition
to drizzle or freezing drizzle, depending on depth of moisture
remaining and surface temperatures, particularly as we get into the
evening hours. It`s possible the advisory may have to be expanded in
duration across the mountainous counties, but in coordination with
other offices, the decision was made to hold off and see how the
system transpires first.

Have elected to go ahead and expand the advisory by a few counties
with the afternoon package. Although the forecast for wintry
precipitation is a bit more uncertain in these areas, i.e. Clay,
Braxton, Kanawha counties, feel with the timing of the event during
the morning commute, and the potential for freezing precipitation
particularly on elevated surfaces, i.e. bridges, will go ahead and
add these counties to the advisory. Also expanded into Wyoming
county as some of the probabilistic information hints towards
accumulations of ice there, although confidence in coverage is
low.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 125 PM Monday...

Drier weather will gradually take hold Wednesday and Thursday as
high pressure gradually builds into the area. A cold front will
approach from the north on Thursday. This will spread light snow
showers back into the area, primarily across northern zones. Little
to now snow accumulation is anticipated at this time. Temperatures
will remain near to or slightly below average for this time of
year.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 125 PM Monday...

Friday into Saturday is trending drier, with keeping the bulk of
moisture associated with a system to the south out of our area. This
period will still need to be monitored however, as wintry
precipitation is possible, should it affect our area. Temps during
the period look to remain around average for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1225 PM Monday...

MVFR ceilings continue to erode from south to north, and have
all TAF sites becoming VFR by 20Z.

Otherwise, a system will approach the area tonight, spreading
precipitation in the form of a wintry mix area wide. Expect
ceilings and visibilities to quickly deteriorate to widespread
MVFR then widepsread IFR particularly after 09Z, along with
localized LIFR.

Light, winds will increase overnight particularly across the
mountains, where gusts of 15 to 25 kts is possible. LLWS may be
possible at EKN tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of restrictions in precipitation
tonight may vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR conditions possible in rain and snow Tuesday, and perhaps in
lingering low ceilings Tuesday night.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
     Tuesday for WVZ005>011-013>020-027>032-034-039-040-
     515>526.
OH...Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
     Tuesday for OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
     Tuesday for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...SL