Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
079 FXUS61 KRLX 300909 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 509 AM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The models are converging on taking the cold front south of the area Friday night before stalling it. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1.) Dry with a warming trend into Thursday. 2.) Widespread shower and thunderstorm chances return Friday courtesy of a cold front, which could possibly linger through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Winds will become southwesterly today. This will allow temperatures to warm considerably, with even more warming by Thursday. Afternoon readings by Thursday will be in the 80s for all but the higher elevations. KEY MESSAGE 2... A cold front will push southward through the region on Friday, bringing showers and thunderstorms. Models show the front stalling south of the region Friday night. The area will remain close enough to the front however, that some rain or drizzle will remain possible on Saturday, more likely over southern West Virginia and southwest Virginia. An upper level wave will move across the area on Sunday, enhancing the chances of precipitation. Once again, this will be more likely over southern West Virginia and southwest Virginia. This system will also push the cold front further south, leaving dry weather for the beginning of the next work week. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... After the fog dissipates this morning, a cumulus deck will form over/near the mountains. Expect generally VFR conditions after the fog dissipates throughout the area. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: The timing of fog dissipating could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 09/30/26 UTC 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 EDT 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M L H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H L L H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L H H H M M H EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M H H M H H PKB CONSISTENCY L H H H H H L H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY L M M H M H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... IFR in fog may return to KEKN early Thursday morning. Showers and thunderstorms could provide brief IFR Friday. IFR ceilings are possible north of the cold front over southern WV and southwestern VA Friday night into Saturday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RPY AVIATION...RPY