788
FXUS61 KRLX 030154
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
854 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Light wintry precipitation across the northern mountains through
tonight. High pressure returns mid week. Additional systems
possible to end the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 850 PM Tuesday...

Light snow showers are continuing a little longer than
previously thought across the West Virginia lowlands, so PoPs
have been updated to account for this. No additional
accumulation is expected. In addition, motorists will need to
watch for icy spots on roadways through the Wednesday morning
commute. Any standing water currently on the roads may freeze
overnight as temperatures plummet into the teens and twenties.
This would be most likely to occur on elevated surfaces,
bridges, and overpasses.

As of 629 PM Tuesday...

Made a few minor adjustments to PoPs over the next several hours
in the northeastern West Virginia mountains to account for
continuing light snow showers and flurries. These snow showers
should eventually taper off areawide between 10 PM and midnight.

As of 1232 PM Tuesday...

Light precipitation in the form of dz/fzdz or even periods of
-shsn will linger over the northern mountains tonight, with low
clouds expected area wide. In coordination with surrounding offices,
elected to extend the winter weather advisory across northern
mountain zones through 03Z. Additional impacts should be minimal,
but light accumulations of snow and ice are still possible.
Otherwise, high pressure will continue to nudge in Wednesday for a
dry day, with clouds hopefully breaking up a bit by afternoon hours.
Still cool, with highs around seasonal norms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1232 PM Tuesday...

A cold front will approach from the north on Thursday. This will
spread light snow showers back into the area, primarily across
northern zones. Little to no snow accumulation is anticipated at
this time. Temperatures will remain near to or slightly below
average for this time of year.

Focus on Friday shifts to a system that will move east across the
Gulf States. Still uncertainty in how far north the precipitation
shield will make it, but still looking like at least a chance,
particularly south of the Ohio River. This also has the potential to
produce a wintry mix across the area, before moving off to the east
on Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1232 PM Tuesday...

The weekend still looks to be rather uncertain, but appears to be
trending drier. A low passing across the Great Lakes region may
create a few light showers across the area, but overall, drier
conditions look to try to take hold.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 634 PM Tuesday...

Expect MVFR and IFR conditions to continue overnight. Most
terminals will be right on the border of MVFR and IFR with
ceilings right around the 1,000 AGL mark. Areawide improvement
to VFR should take place between 16Z and 20Z Wednesday, with
western locations clearing sooner and eastern locations taking a
bit longer to clear.

Northwesterly winds will gradually weaken overnight. Then,
expect westerly winds Wednesday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Duration and extent of restrictions
associated with low ceilings may vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 WED
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    M    H    H    M    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR possible, mainly south of the Ohio River Friday and Friday
night in a wintry mix.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
     WVZ522>526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SL
NEAR TERM...SL/26
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...26