933
FXUS61 KRLX 241827
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
227 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Chances for showers and storms prevail through at least midweek.
Additional rounds of rain possible late in the week into the
weekend as well.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 152 PM Tuesday...

A deepening upper-level low pressure system over the IL and IN, will
bring areas of vorticity around its periphery across the OH Valley
and WV through tonight. A quasi-stationary frontal boundary over WV
will serve as a focus for additional convection tonight. Hi-res models
suggest next round of showers and storms lifting north across
southern WV and SW VA this evening affecting mainly the eastern
half of the area, along and near the mountains. Another round is
forecasted to arrive to the Tri- state area (OH/KY/WV) and
extreme southern WV during the predawn hours Wednesday morning.
Localized heavy downpours will be possible with the heavier
storms. A marginal risk for excessive rainfall exist for the
entire area through tonight.

A slight risk for severe thunderstorms exist for portions of WV,
northeast KY and southeast OH through tonight. The main threat will
be damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes.

While the area remains under the warm sector of a dissipating
surface low pressure system, dewpoints will remain elevated. Expect
tonight`s temperatures to range from the mid to upper 60s
across the lowlands, into the low 60s central mountains, and mid
50s higher elevations of our northeast mountains.

Abundant cloudiness and expected cooling showers should keep
warm Max temperatures, ranging from the lower 80s lowlands,
into the mid 70s central mountains, and mid 60s higher
elevations of our northeast mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 225 PM Tuesday...

Still looking a little drier overall on Thursday as upper low
continues to sag south across the Lower Mississippi River Valley,
taking bulk of moisture south and west with it. Precipitation, and
winds, will ramp back up again for Friday as the remnants of
Tropical Storm Helene move onshore and northward towards the region,
eventually weakening and becoming absorbed into upper low across
Lower MS Valley Friday evening. Ample moisture, with PW values
progged to rise to 2 inches or more across the area, will help to
provide some beneficial rain to the area, particularly across the
mountains from upslope effects.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 225 PM Tuesday...

Unsettled weather will continue in the extended period as the upper
low continues to spread moisture northward into the area, with
increasing chances for precipitation as we head into next week and
the low gradually lifts northeast, eventually opening into a wave as
it moves through the area.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 136 PM Tuesday...

An elongated line of convection passed east of CRW to affect CKB
and BKW with brief periods of IFR/LIFR under strong
thunderstorms at the moment of writing. Wind gusts up to 45
knots can be expected with the stronger storms. Terminals west
of the line, will experience post heavy rain MVFR conditions
under light stratiformed rain for few hours.

Hi-res CAMs indicate a second batch of showers and thunderstorms
developing across northeast KY, and then moving northeast across
our area later this afternoon and evening. Brief periods of
IFR/LIFR conditions will be possible along the stronger storms.
A lull in rainfall activity may occur overnight, allowing for
MVFR/IFR low stratus to develop affecting most terminals 08Z
through at least 13Z.

Guidance suggests another batch of convection expected to
arrive to the Tri- state area (OH/WV/KY) overnight by 10Z and
move east northeast to affect the area.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of showers and thunderstorms may
vary from forecast. Dense fog along with mountain obscuration
may develop overnight into Wednesday morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    L    M    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
Brief IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...ARJ