884
FXUS61 KRLX 080945
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
545 AM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
12Z Aviation Forecast Discussion.

158 AM Update...
The zeitgeist of the forecast remains the same, which is an
active, persistent summer-like pattern.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) An unsettled week is expected with showers and thunderstorms,
not always confined to the peak heating hours of the day.
Training storms that repeatedly move over the same areas can
cause localized flooding.

2) Hot and muggy conditions will be widespread this week. Given the
extended stretch of hot and humid weather, heat safety will be
important.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Showers and thunderstorms are expected this week and even next
weekend. With mid/upper-level disturbances modulating timing,
the showers and thunderstorms may not always be confined to the
peak heating hours of the day. No particular day will be a
complete washout, and we may even be able to eek out dry
interludes between systems, but probably not for much more than
a 24 hour period at a time. This does not bode well for outside
interests that require consecutive days of dry weather.

A west to east oriented front stalled across the center of the
forecast early this morning will return as a warm front today,
as its orientation becomes northwest to southeast. With an
approaching mid/upper-level short wave trough bisecting an
otherwise high pressure regime over the eastern half of the
U.S., showers and thunderstorms may fire up with the help of
afternoon heating late today over the middle Ohio Valley
southeastward across the southern WV Coal Fields and Tug Fork,
and the southern mountains. This activity may persist tonight in
these areas, near/along the slow-moving warm front and ahead of
the approaching mid/upper-level trough.

With sufficient CAPE and light deep layer flow, thunderstorms
late today into tonight may be robust but not necessarily
persistent nor organized, with a locally strong to damaging wind
threat arising from downbursts. With precipitable water values
in the 1.5-2 inch range, locally excessive rainfall may arise
from slow movement of storms and repetitive storms tracking over
the same areas.

The Weather Prediction Center has a marginal risk for excessive
rainfall from the middle Ohio Valley southeastward across the
southern WV Coal Fields and Tug Fork, and the southern
mountains, for today through tonight, while the Storm
Prediction Center has the forecast area outlooked for general
thunderstorms.

The warm front will move northeast of the area Tuesday, and the
mid/upper-level trough will move across the area Tuesday into
Tuesday night. This expands the likelihood of showers and
thunderstorms throughout the area for Tuesday and Tuesday night.
There may not be a discernible surface feature associated with
the mid/upper-level trough, only a south to southwest low level
flow of increasingly warm and humid air.

However, models indicate low level flow tightening up over a
portion of the area Tuesday afternoon, increasing low-level
shear, and better focusing moisture transport, in turn elevating
precipitable water values to two inches or greater. All this
could lead to a round of robust thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon
and evening, with strong to locally damaging wind gusts and
heavy downpours. Instances of locally excessive rainfall are
possible amid modestly slow moving storms, along with back-
building and / or training.

The Weather Prediction Center has a marginal risk for excessive
rainfall for the forecast area, while the Storm Prediction
Center has the forecast area outlooked for general
thunderstorms, for Tuesday and Tuesday night.

The rest of the mid/upper-level bisected by the short wave
trough crosses Wednesday afternoon and night, pushing at
least the greatest coverage of showers and thunderstorms
eastward. Meanwhile, broad long wave troughing sets up over the
center of the continent during the latter portion of the work
week. easing eastward to the central to eastern portion of the
continent next weekend. With the loosely defined southern edge
of these westerlies roughly near the 40 degree N latitude,
ripples in the mid/upper-level flow will lead to varying
coverage of showers and thunderstorms at times into, if not
through, next weekend.

Assessing severe weather and hydrology threat presence and
timing are complicated by short wave timing and juxtaposition
with diurnal heating, and mean flow/shear perhaps a little fast
for slow moving storms and a little slow for organized, strong
storms. Nonetheless, with warm and humid air in place the whole
time, these threats may need further assessed and refined as we
move through and beyond midweek.

Come next weekend, we may be watching whether the long wave
trough can ooze far enough east to get drier Canadian air into
the forecast area.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

With high heights owing to lack of southward penetration of the
westerlies, above average temperatures and high humidity
persist, with lowland highs in the upper 80s to low 90s, and
lowland dew points and overnight lows in the upper 60s and low
70s. This extended stretch of heat and humidity, with limited
nighttime relief, gives rise to elevated heat stress. Rounds of
showers thunderstorms may interrupt daytime heat, but only keep
the humidity stifling.

Probabilities of high temperatures exceeding 90 degrees F range
in to 50 percent or less range, and probabilities of high
temperatures exceeding 95 degrees F range are low or none.
However, h85 temperatures as high as 20 C can support lowland
highs as high as 95 if we can find a daytime seam between
systems and associated showers and thunderstorms mid to late-
week.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Valley fog was not as prevalent or persistent as forecast early
this morning, and any that remains should be gone by the 12Z
start of the forecast, or very shortly thereafter.

VFR conditions will then be predominant today with a
cumulus/stratocumulus deck by afternoon. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to fire up over the middle Ohio
Valley late this afternoon, and persist into tonight. Confidence
was not high enough to explicitly include direct thunderstorm
impacts in any of the TAFs, but SHRA was coded up for HTS 00-02Z
this evening, and VCTS was included HTS, PKB and CRW mid to late
afternoon into this evening.

Tonight should turn out mainly VFR following any lingering
evening showers and thunderstorms, but more widespread coverage
of activity could lead to nocturnal ceiling and visibility
restrictions. Southeast flow may get MVFR stratocu and even IFR
stratus into BKW overnight tonight.

Surface flow will be light and variable to light southeast, but
may veer to light southwest behind a warm front for a time late
this afternoon into the evening at HTS and perhaps CRW and PKB.
Light south to southeast flow aloft today will become moderate
south tonight, and then light to moderate south to southwest
overnight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Showers and thunderstorms may be more
impactful than advertised late this afternoon and tonight at
CRW/PKB/HTS/BKW. If they do, then overnight ceiling and
visibility restrictions could occur as a result.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         MON 06/08/26
UTC 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
EDT 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    M    M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
Brief periods of IFR visibility possible in thunderstorms each
day and even at night throughout this week. Episodes of late
night and early morning IFR or worse fog are also possible this
week, largely dependent upon where rainfall occurs.

&&

.CLIMATE...
This past meteorological spring, March 1 through May 31, 2026,
was the warmest on record at Huntington, and tied for the
warmest on record at Elkins.

Location   Record        Old Record    Years(s)
           Average       Average       Old Records
           Temperature   Temperature   Set
=================================================
HTS        61.8 deg F    61.0 deg F    1921
EKN        54.9 deg F    54.9 deg F    2012, 2024

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TRM
AVIATION...TRM
CLIMATE...TRM