Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
627 FXUS61 KRLX 021714 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 114 PM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... 18Z aviation discussion issued... No significant changes from previous forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) There will be isolated showers and thunderstorms in the West Virginia mountains. Otherwise, the week remains dry, quiet, and comfortable. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A weak mid-level disturbance passing through the Appalachians can create an isolated thunderstorm or two this afternoon. Any rainfall amounts would be small, likely only amounting to up to around a quarter inch of rainfall. Slow-moving thunderstorms could produce higher rainfall amounts. Otherwise, high pressure will expand over the coverage area Wednesday with mostly sunny skies, comfortable temperatures, and dry weather. There will also be some very patchy river valley fog that develops each morning around sunrise, particularly in the mountain river valleys that sees rainfall today. The next chance of a changing pattern bringing rainfall will be late this weekend, as an upper-level low pressure system potentially arrives. Models are slightly more indicative today of this occurring, while yesterday, a few models kept a ridge of high pressure in control through early next week. However, there is still a vast amount of disagreement regarding the exact placement and track of low pressure. Because of this, the forecast for late this weekend is a bit uncertain, so PoPs will be limited to about 50 percent Sunday into Monday. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions should continue through much of today, but KEKN or KBKW could see a temporary reduction in visibility if a thunderstorm moves over those areas. The most likely time for that would be anytime before 00Z Wednesday. Patchy mountain valley fog can be expected overnight. MVFR/IFR restrictions in fog have been added at KEKN and KCRW between 09Z and 12Z Wednesday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Convection this afternoon and fog early Wednesday morning might be more widespread than anticipated. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 EDT 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... IFR conditions becoming more likely in valley fog each morning during the middle and latter portion of this week, as high pressure becomes more dominant. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...26 AVIATION...26