169
FXUS61 KRLX 132343
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
743 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
00Z Aviation Forecast Discussion update

While timing and magnitude of storms remains uncertain for
Friday, a strong enough signal for convective activity during
the day warranted an extension of the Flood Watch through
tomorrow evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1.) Shower and storm coverage is progged to encroach back into
the area as early as overnight tonight into Friday as the
curvature of a frontal boundary shifts northward. Thunderstorm
complexes evolving out west will continue to follow the path of
the boundary as storms march eastward and could bring severe
weather and more flash flooding at times on Friday.

2.) Active weather pattern persists into the weekend into the
start of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

The forecast remains strongly tied to radar and satellite trends
heading into the end of the work week. A frontal boundary draped
through the heart of the Ohio Valley continues to serve up
thunderstorm complexes with a slew of damaging winds and
torrential rainfall. The Central Appalachians has lucked out the
past few days as the curvature in the boundary has caused
storms to travel mostly through Kentucky southward, and only
just skirting our western counties. That may not be the case
heading into tonight and Friday, as the orientation of the front
is progged to lift back to the north, planting the forecast
area back into the corridor of shower and storm coverage.

A wide array of model solutions for timing and magnitude of
storms remains at play on Friday, with some driving storms into
the area as early as the pre-dawn hours on Friday, while others
maintain an active afternoon and evening period. Despite the
uncertainty, enough of a signal is present in the near term
forecast period for increased potential of localized flash
flooding from heavy downpours beyond the current Flash Flood
Watch timeframe. Opted to therefore extend the Watch into Friday
evening to encapsulate more of the potential daytime activity
meandering over the area. Anomalously high PWATs that have been
accompanying storms this week could exacerbate already saturated
soils across our basins, despite having had a day or two to
recover from previous rainfall. Additional updates to the Watch
may be warranted following future model guidance cycles and
monitoring upstream radar trends.


KEY MESSAGE 2...

The weekend forecast continues to teeter towards a more active
state than what previous model guidance has conveyed. While
strong high pressure in the Upper Midwest forces our stalled
boundary to shift into New England, diurnally driven showers and
storms remains feasible Saturday afternoon along the higher
terrain and across our northern counties where the front may
still fester. A cold front arriving from the west brings
additional precipitation chances for the end of the weekend, and
could also impose active weather into next week in the event the
boundary gets hung up in close proximity to the forecast area.
Temperatures through the period will likely stay above normal,
except a brief drop to near normal this weekend with the frontal
passage.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Dense fog is anticipated at most sites excluding HTS/BKW.
Confidence is not there however due to increasing cloud
coverage by incoming rain and convection. Fog may start early
under just high clouds and calm surface flow and last into mid
morning with LIFR or worse fog and/or low stratus. If cloud
coverage is more abundant then dense fog may not develop as
much. A frontal boundary is draped across the area therefore
this feature may deter fog from forming if boundary layer mixing
takes place. Overall confidence is low and for thunderstorm
timing and coverage for late morning and the afternoon. Clouds
should lift by mid afternoon to borderline VFR but lingering
MVFR will likely be the culprit for the TAF period. Some light
rain may get into the sites but confidence on timing is also
low. Any fog should lift by 13Z/14Z.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of flight categories will likely
vary form TAFs and/or become less dense under fog coverage.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 FRI
UTC 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
EDT 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    L    M    L    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    M    L

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
Periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms continue through
early next week. Brief IFR or lower conditions will be possible
in direct thunderstorm hits or heavy downpours. Where overnight
clearing occurs over wet ground, patchy valley fog and stratus
may bring early morning MVFR or IFR restrictions.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch through Friday evening for WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>034-039-040-515>526.
OH...Flood Watch through Friday evening for OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...Flood Watch through Friday evening for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...Flood Watch through Friday evening for VAZ003-004.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...JZ