139
FXUS61 KRLX 112328
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
728 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will provide dry and warm conditions today. A
coastal low developing off the Carolinas will bring a chance for
light precipitation to the mountains Sunday and Sunday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 PM Saturday...

Dry conditions prevail today as a weak cold front washes out
across the area, providing nothing more than a bit of mid-level
cloud cover. Highs today will top out in the low/mid 70s across
the lowlands, with upper 50s and 60s in the mountains, all amid
mostly sunny skies.

A coastal low off the Carolinas gradually shifts northeast
tonight and Sunday. This brings increased cloud cover,
especially across the mountains, along with the potential for
isolated showers later tonight and Sunday, primarily along the
eastern slopes in Pocahontas/Randolph counties. Further west,
less cloud cover will facilitate some river valley fog
development tonight. Lows tonight will be in the 40s, with highs
on Sunday in the low/mid 70s across the lowlands, with 50s to
mid 60s in the mountains. Breezes of 15 to 25 mph are possible
across the northern lowlands/mountains on Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Saturday...

The aforementioned coastal low will gradually shift E/NE Sunday
night and Monday as it interacts with a weak upper trough across
the northeast, resulting in a continued potential for isolated
showers across the northeast mountains Sunday night into Monday
morning, with dry weather elsewhere. Building upper level
ridging results in area-wide dry weather thereafter.

Lows at night will generally range from the mid 40s to low 50s.
Highs Monday/Tuesday will remain above normal, with low/mid 70s
across the lowlands, with mid 50s to mid 60s in the mountains.
Mostly clear skies Monday onwards will result in the potential
for some river valley fog each night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 PM Saturday...

A dry cold front is progged to push through the forecast area on
Wednesday, resulting in a return to near normal or slightly
below normal temperatures Wednesday through Friday, all amid
continued dry weather and plenty of sunshine as surface high
pressure builds in from the northwest. Favorable radiational
cooling conditions Wednesday/Thursday nights results in the
potential for frost across the mountain valleys Wednesday night,
with more widespread potential Thursday night, even extending
into portions of the lowlands. Some river valley steam fog is
expected at night given a large air/river temperature difference.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 730 PM Saturday...

Expect mainly VFR conditions throughout most of this period.
There is some potential for valley fog to impact HTS and
possibly CRW. EKN will likely endure some low stratus through
the morning. Other sites should have enough surface flow to
deter fog formation.

Mainly mid to high clouds until the morning when some lower
stratus slides in from the east across the mountains affecting
our mountain sites with MVFR CIGs from mid morning on, however
by mid afternoon those CIGs should dissipate leaving VFR back to
dominating into Sunday night until more valley fog potentially
develops for the morning.

Winds will generally be out of the northeast today with decent
surface flow where gusts up to 20kts is not out of the question
across the higher terrain this afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog/low stratus at CRW/HTS/EKN late
could vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 SUN
UTC 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
EDT 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
At least patchy IFR river valley fog is possible each morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GW
NEAR TERM...GW
SHORT TERM...GW
LONG TERM...GW
AVIATION...JZ