883
FXUS61 KRLX 170719
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
319 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Heavy downpours and flood potential continue today into
Wednesday with another upper level disturbance. Strong cold
front increases the severe potential for Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1045 PM Monday...

Various areas of showers and embedded thunderstorms associated
with flat waves moving through a mid/upper-level short wave
ridge over the area, ahead of a mid/upper-level short trough
approaching from the mid-Mississippi valley, were traversing or
approaching the forecast area.

One line of showers with the occasional thunderclap continues
moving slowly northeast through north central WV, while a
cluster of showers with the occasional thunderclap in northeast
Kentucky continues moving slowly northeast into southeast Ohio
and western WV. This motion will continue into the overnight,
the former eventually moving out of the forecast area while the
latter eventually fades. There were pockets of embedded heavier
rainfall with each but isolated enough and with enough motion
to preclude flash flooding.

A larger cluster of showers and thunderstorms, with heavy
downpours and strong wind gusts, may make across the Tug Fork
overnight before, according to near term models, also fading, as
it to, moves farther ahead of the main upstream short wave
trough.

It does remain balmy over the middle Ohio Valley, with
temperatures in the mid to upper 70s. With dew points in the lower
70s throughout much of the lowlands, and PW values up around
two inches throughout much of the area, moisture remains quite
abundant.

As of 825 PM Monday...

Have canceled the Flood Watch a bit early, as the threat for
heavy rainfall and additional flooding have waned. The rest of
the forecast remains on track.

As of 130 PM Monday...

Key Points:

* Warm, moist airmass with limited, but deep instability continues
  to yield efficient and heavy rainfall from showers and
  thunderstorms

* Isolated instances of flash flash flooding are possible,
  especially where soils have been locally compromised from recent
  heavy rainfall

* Limited risk for severe weather outside of flooding, although some
  locally gusty winds could cause tree damage with any convection,
  especially where soils are very moist from recent rainfall

* Landslides will also be possible where ground conditions remain
  very moist, although the fully greened up vegetation should help
  to hold things together

The atmosphere remains primed to produce efficient and heavy
rainfall with precipitable water values 1.7 to nearly 2.0 inches,
deep warm cloud depths, deep, but skinny instability profiles and
H700 steering flow of around 10KTs out of the southwest. Should see
less coverage and a little less potential for training than with
activity yesterday, however, soils have become even more compromised
by recent rainfall with 3hr flash flood guidance now contain some
fairly widespread areas of less than 1.5 inches across the north
half of the forecast area.

A combination of filtered insolation, surface convergence along a
weak boundary draped along the Ohio River and through Central WV and
very weak waves embedded in southwesterly flow will be the primary
drivers for convective initiation this afternoon and evening (minus
aforementioned heating). Rainfall rates of generally 1 to 1.5 inches
per hour will be possible in the heaviest precipitation cores, with
locally higher rates possible in collapsing cores. With the
aforementioned weak upper forcing and lower level convergence,
activity is expected to persist well into the evening and perhaps
even into the overnight. A flash flood watch remains in effect
through tonight for much of the area through 10 PM.

With a weakly sheared column, not expecting severe thunderstorms
through this afternoon and evening, but sub-severe thunderstorm
winds near any collapsing cells could still cause some tree damage,
especially in area with very wet soils.

A belt of stronger flow is expected to move overhead by early
Tuesday morning and will persist through much of the day Tuesday
while the column retains its deep moisture and generally poor mid-
level lapse rates. While this will result in faster storm motions,
it will also allow for updraft organization and more persistent
updrafts. Wet bulb zeros remain quite high given the moisture laden
airmass, so would expect the primary threat with any convection to
be damaging winds. Also couldn`t completely rule out a brief tornadic
threat neat any lingering weak surface features where low level flow
could be locally veered, although this appears to be a very low end
threat. Localized flooding will continue to be a concern over
compromised soils with heavy rainfall rates but there is some
question as to the extent of convective coverage during the day in
the absence of a focusing boundary. With more limited coverage, more
progressive storm motions would help to limit the threat.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 AM Tuesday...

Showers and storms will continue as an H500 shortwave lifts
northeast over our area on Wednesday. Afternoon heating will enhance
storm coverage and intensity under abundant low level moisture.
Under a moist and unstable environment with poor deep layered shear,
isolated strong to severe storms may develop. SPC maintains a
marginal risk for severe thunderstorms for Wednesday and Thursday
mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. Damaging winds will
be the main threat.

With soils across the area are saturated per previous rainfall. It
will take less rain to produce water issues. Therefore, the flash
flood threat can not be rule out if a location receives heavy or
repetitive downpours. However, storm activity should move faster
than previous days allowing to spread rainfall along their path.

A cold front arrives Thursday morning while a stronger H500 trough
pushes east. With similar unstable environment and an uptick in deep
layered shear exceeding 40 knots, better chances for severe
thunderstorms may occur mainly during the afternoon and evening
hours. SPC continues with a marginal risk for severe storms for
Thursday, with a damaging wind threat looking to be most likely.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 315 AM Tuesday...

Forecast weather charts show a surface high pressure building over
the area Friday into the weekend. This high, will provide dry
weather conditions and a warming trend into the beginning of next
week. Afternoon temperatures will climb into the low to mid 90s
across the lowlands, ranging into the upper 70s northeast
mountains for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 130 AM Tuesday...

A mix of MVFR to LIFR conditions are expected to occur at times due
to pockets of fog, low stratus, and continued rounds of rain
showers early this morning. While fog will erode after
sunrise, periodic MVFR/IFR restrictions remain possible for the
bulk of the TAF period as a disturbance brings additional
showers and storms through the area.

Calm to light winds become southwesterly during the day, with
some gusts into the teens possible during the afternoon.
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms could also produce
strong gusty winds during the afternoon and evening. Winds start
to ease and turn southerly late in the TAF period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Locally dense fog possible wherever the
sky becomes sufficiently clear overnight. Timing and intensity
of showers/storms may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              TUE 06/17/25
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    M    L    L    M    M    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    M    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    M    L    M    L    L    L    H    H    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
Brief IFR possible in rounds of showers and thunderstorms
through mid week. Locally heavy rain during the afternoons and
evenings could yield patchy fog or low stratus Wednesday and
Friday mornings.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch from 11 AM EDT this morning through this evening
     for WVZ005>011-013>020-024>034-039-040-515>526.
OH...Flood Watch from 11 AM EDT this morning through this evening
     for OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...Flood Watch from 11 AM EDT this morning through this evening
     for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...Flood Watch from 11 AM EDT this morning through this evening
     for VAZ003-004.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/20
NEAR TERM...20
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...20