054
FXUS61 KRLX 230052
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
852 PM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly dry and warmer today with an isolated shower or storm possible
in/near the mountains. Strong cold front crosses this weekend, bringing
a better chance for showers/storms. Cooler and mainly dry next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 850 PM Friday...

Extended duration of showers along the higher terrain through
late this evening. Should continue to see these decrease in
intensity until falling apart.

As of 300 PM Friday...

Lingering low stratus across the northwest lowlands is finally
beginning to mix out, with diurnal Cu having developed
throughout the rest of the forecast area where clearing occurred
earlier. This will translate into a mixture of clouds and
sunshine for the afternoon and evening. While much of the area
remains dry, weak low/mid level flow and modest buoyancy
south/east leads to the potential for isolated showers and
perhaps a thunderstorm or two along the spine of the higher
terrain via lift courtesy of anabatic convergence. Any activity
that develops will quickly diminish near or slightly after
sunset. Highs today will be slightly warmer than yesterday (mid
80s lowlands; 70s mountains).

The overnight will feature seasonably warm temperatures, with
low/mid 60s across the lowlands, while mid 50s to low 60s in the
mountains. Some river valley fog is expected to develop once again.

The chance for showers/storms returns throughout the day on
Saturday across a larger portion of the area courtesy of return
flow and associated low/mid level moisture advection, with a
weak pressure trough being the main forcing mechanism. The best
chance for rain will be in/near the mountains (30-60%), with
gradually decreasing chances further northwest. High temperatures
on Saturday will be similar to that of today, perhaps a degree
or two warmer.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Friday...

The chance for showers/storms will continue Saturday night and
on Sunday as a cold front slowly approaches and eventually
crosses the area, bringing the forecast area its best chance
for rain over the next week. The highest probability for rain is
locations southeast of the Ohio River, particularly in/near the
mountains (60-70%), with gradually decreasing chances further
northwest. While severe weather is not anticipated, a few strong
storms with gusty winds does remain possible as the front
crosses on Sunday, along with the potential for locally heavy
rain. Given antecedent very dry conditions, the probability for
any hydro issues remains quite low, but non-zero. Dry weather
returns area-wide Sunday night following the passage of the
front. High temperatures on Sunday will be in the low/mid 80s
across the lowlands, with upper 60s and 70s in the mountains.
Lows will be in the 50s area-wide Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 PM Friday...

Mainly dry and significantly cooler weather is expected for the
start of the new work week following the passage of the cold
front on Sunday, as broad surface high pressure gradually noses
in from the west. High temperatures will generally be in the
70s across the lowlands, with upper 50s and 60s across the
mountains, with Tuesday currently expected to be the coolest day.
Lows will range from the mid 40s to mid 50s in the lowlands,
with upper 30s and 40s in the mountains. River valley fog is
expected each night. Slightly warmer temperatures can be
expected on Wednesday, but particularly by Thursday.

While mainly dry weather is expected, weak upper waves moving
through the broad/high amplitude upper trough across the eastern
CONUS will lead to the potential for ISOLD showers at times,
especially at times w/ a favorable moisture feed from the Great
Lakes and/or diurnal heating given cold pool aloft. The `best`
chance for this would be later Monday through Tuesday, with
building/crossing high pressure bringing dry weather thereafter.
Will stay with central guidance for now that maintains a dry
forecast, but the potential for some showers does exist,
especially in/near the higher terrain.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 720 PM Friday...

An isolated shower is developing near KBKW which may affect the
terminal for the first 30-60 minutes of this TAF period before
dissipating. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail
at most terminals for the first few hours of the TAF period.
However, as winds become light and variable overnight, MVFR to
IFR conditions are expected to develop in valley fog and low
stratus at KEKN, KCRW, KHTS, KPKB, and KCKB between 06Z and
13Z. While guidance favors dense fog, there may be just enough
boundary layer flow to keep conditions primarily as low stratus
rather than dense fog.

After 13Z Saturday, any fog and stratus will lift, with VFR
conditions returning to all TAF sites. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon, primarily
impacting terminals in West Virginia (KCRW, KHTS, KBKW, KCKB,
KEKN) with brief MVFR conditions possible, although confidence
in convective coverage is too low to include in this TAF
package.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Restrictions overnight with fog and/or low
stratus may vary from the forecast. Convection may approach the
terminals Saturday afternoon.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            SAT 08/23/25
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    H

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
Brief IFR possible in showers/thunderstorms through Sunday.
IFR possible in river valley fog each morning beginning on
Monday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GW
NEAR TERM...JP/GW
SHORT TERM...GW
LONG TERM...GW
AVIATION...JP