618
FXUS61 KRLX 181658
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1258 PM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure brings dry weather and highs well above normal
today, A strong cold front crosses Sunday with showers, storms,
and gusty winds. The pattern remains active through the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1127 AM Saturday...

A beautiful day is expected today with temperatures well above
normal for mid-October, reaching the lower 80s across the lowlands
and the upper 70s across the mountains. Clouds will increase from
west to east as a strong upper-level trough moves toward the middle
Ohio Valley from the Central U.S. Winds will be breezy from the
southwest, which will help temperatures rise into the 70s and 80s
this afternoon.

Mild temperatures are expected overnight with a partly to mostly
cloudy sky ahead of the aforementioned low pressure system.
Precipitation will begin to reach western fringes of the coverage
area (northeast Kentucky and southeast Ohio) around dawn Sunday
morning. A strong cold front will cross from west to east during the
afternoon, and a line of gusty showers are expected ahead of this
front. There may be an embedded thunderstorm or two within that
line, but the chance of lightning is low due to very limited
instability (models only predicting up to 200 J/kg of MLCAPE). Winds
aloft will be very strong, with models projecting 850-mb winds
anywhere from 40-50 kts at 18Z Sunday. 0-6 km bulk shear will be
anywhere from 50-70 kts, which may end up being too strong to
support widespread organized severe thunderstorm development.
However, with such strong winds aloft, damaging winds remain the
primary concern as a line of showers develops ahead of the cold
front. Momentum transfer along and ahead of this line could
briefly bring the stronger 40-50 mph winds down to the surface.
SPC currently has a marginal risk of severe weather outlooked
across our area Sunday, with the main threat being damaging wind
gusts in any showers or thunderstorms.

At this time, our wind forecast remains below advisory criteria.
Winds outside of any showers or thunderstorms will be sustained at
10-20 kts, with occasional gusts 20-35 kts.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1127 AM Saturday...

A much cooler day is expected Monday with temperatures only reaching
the middle to upper 50s across the mountains and the lower to middle
60s across the lowlands. This ends up being about 5 degrees below
average for this time of year. Clouds may linger over and near the
mountains Monday morning, before transitioning to some sunshine
areawide by the afternoon hours.

A weaker reinforcing cold front is expected to cross from the west
on Tuesday afternoon. This front may bring a few showers across
northern parts of West Virginia and southeast Ohio Tuesday afternoon
and Tuesday night with minimal rainfall accumulations expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1127 AM Saturday...

Behind this reinforcing cold front will be even cooler weather with
daytime temperatures struggling to reach the 60 degree mark
Wednesday afternoon, even across the lowlands. Highs are expected to
run about 5 to 10 degrees below average for late October. Cool and
dry weather will prevail Wednesday and Thursday with high pressure
over the Southeast U.S. and a large upper-level low over the
northeast and Great Lakes. Temperatures will gradually rise Friday
and Saturday, becoming more seasonable as high pressure repositions
over the mid-Atlantic.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1258 PM Saturday...

The main aviation hazard for the 18Z forecast package will be
gusty winds and LLWS. Southerly winds will gradually increase
this afternoon and into tonight, with occasional gusts reaching
20-25 kts by Sunday morning. In addition, 40kt LLWS is also
possible anytime from 10Z to 14Z Sunday. By 17Z, winds will
become more southwesterly, with occasional gusts 30-35 kts.

VFR conditions will prevail through much of the period, but rain
showers will begin anytime after 14Z Sunday. In these showers,
visibility can be reduced at times.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LLWS possible in other locations early
Sunday morning. Some brief, patchy fog cannot be ruled out at
KEKN early Sunday morning if winds are calm enough.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS
CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
EDT 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR conditions are possible in showers and isolated thunderstorms
on Sunday, then showers and low stratus Sunday night.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26