731
FXUS61 KRLX 061128
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
628 AM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly dry cold front today. The next chance for precipitation
comes Sunday afternoon into Monday, with a mix of rain and
snow. A warmer, breezier system impacts the region midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 100 AM Saturday...

A prefrontal wind shift is currently progressing through the
forecast area from the northwest early this morning. This
feature is acting as the primary lifting mechanism to scour out
the widespread low stratus, mist, and patchy drizzle. Expect
ceilings to improve from west to east through sunrise as drier
low-level air advects into the region.

Later this afternoon and early evening, a mainly dry cold
front will sweep through. While moisture is limited with this
feature, steepening low-level lapse rates and weak instability
in the post-frontal flow will support the development of
scattered flurries, primarily across southeast Ohio and the
northern West Virginia counties. Surface temperatures will
remain above freezing during the onset, and only extremely light
snowfall rates, no accumulation is anticipated with this
activity. The remainder of the area will remain dry with
clearing skies tonight, allowing temperatures to drop into the
20s and 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 100 AM Saturday...

The weather pattern becomes active again by Sunday afternoon as
a clipper system approaches the region. Precipitation onset is
expected Sunday afternoon. Thermal profiles present a challenge
for snow accumulations, particularly across southeast Ohio.
While critical thickness values and surface temperatures may be
marginally cold enough to support snow in our Ohio counties,
filtered sunshine through the cloud deck is expected to warm
surface temperatures sufficiently to mitigate accumulation
potential during daylight hours. Consequently, impactful
accumulations are unlikely during the afternoon.

Further south and east, precipitation will begin as rain.
However, dynamic cooling and cold advection behind the system
will force a transition to all snow Sunday night across the
entire forecast area. This transition period presents the best
window for minor accumulations. Current analysis suggests the
highest probability for light snow accumulation lies across the
southern coalfields and the northeast mountains by Monday
morning. There remains some uncertainty in the track of the
system and resultant snow amounts.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 100 AM Saturday...

Brief ridging allows for a lull early Tuesday before the next
system approaches mid-week. The forecast area is projected to
remain on the warm side of this system, favoring liquid
precipitation for the majority of the event. The primary impact
with this Wednesday system will be the tightening pressure
gradient. A 40-50KT low-level jet at H850 will mix partially to
the surface, supporting wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph across the
lowlands, with higher gusts likely across the higher terrain of
the northeast mountains.

Forecast confidence decreases significantly beyond Wednesday due
to poor run-to-run consistency in medium-range guidance.
Previous signal for a robust Colorado Low has diminished.
Analysis of the upper-level flow indicates the jet stream is
positioning farther north and exhibiting flow less orthogonal to
the Rockies` highest terrain. This setup is less favorable for
strong lee cyclogenesis, favoring a weaker open wave solution.
Despite the weaker forcing, the region will likely remain within
a baroclinic zone on Thursday. This supports continued
precipitation chances, potentially in the form of snow,
particularly across the northern tier of the CWA a forcing for
ascent arrives. However, given the model inconsistency
regarding the strength and placement of the thermal boundary,
confidence in specific impacts remains low.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 620 AM Saturday...

A southwesterly wind shift has largely cleared out the stratus,
with some MVFR stratocumulus remaining at CRW/BKW/CKB/EKN.
Should see this dissipate by late morning, only to be replaced
by additional stratocumulus behind a mainly dry cold front this
afternoon into this evening. Couldn`t rule out a stray flurry
near the northern terminals this afternoon/evening but flight
category impacts are unlikely.

Winds west-southwesterly this morning around 5-10KTs, shifting
west-northwesterly and becoming gusty this afternoon, with
gusts up to 15-20KTs possible before diminishing after 00Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of transition from MVFR to VFR and
back to MVFR could vary by a couple hours.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               SAT 12/06/25
UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EST 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    H    L    H    M    M    M    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    M    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    M    M

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR possible in rain/snow Sunday afternoon into Monday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JP