180
FXUS61 KRLX 280621
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
221 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly clear/cool this late morning under high pressure. Warm
and increasingly humid today with isolated afternoon storm
potential. A cold front crosses mid weekend, with more storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 120 AM Friday...

High pressure fleets toward the east away from the area
allowing southerly flow to ramp up bringing in higher dewpoints
and much more moisture. By the afternoon, a system headed for
the Great Lakes will drag a warm frontal boundary from south
to north across the CWA. This feature will promote thunderstorm
activity, however the severe threat does not exist and the
activity should be confined to just isolated in nature more
than anything else.

Not to say there cannot be a strong to severe storm due to
modest wind shear, heck of a lot of DCAPE with plenty
instability and moisture as we get up in the low 90`s and low
70`s in temperatures and dewpoints, respectively. If the Cu
field during the afternoon gets agitated, and if any moderate
Cu could then get past the low to midlevel CAPs, then
thunderstorms may become strong instead of the pulse weak type.

There is also a lot of very dry air in the mid to upper levels
as seen by the intense hydrolapses on the forecast soundings
which will be a thunderstorm deterrent. Regardless, we
shouldn`t see too much activity until the cold front comes
later on Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 AM Friday...

By Saturday morning, a cold front will approach the area from
the northwest associated with a traversing low pressure system
across the Great Lakes. Due to the timing of the front, which
will be passing through during the afternoon and evening, and
with most of the severe indices we have in place at that time
frame all point towards severe storms being possible.

With plenty of instability and DCAPE along with above
environmental lapse rates and low CIN and also very high PWATS,
the main threat will be damaging wind and heavy downpours which
may lead to localized flooding across low lying or flood prone
areas. The only thing that may deter a lot of storms or at least
making them not last long will be the weak shear in place. Due
to the low so far north and with jet support up there and not
down near our area, winds in the upper levels will be weak to
modest at best creating a low shear environment.

The aforementioned cold front will kick out toward the
southeast by Sunday afternoon with broad high pressure building
in behind it keeping us dry into the next period.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 AM Friday...

A strong and broad surface high pressure system covers the area
with upper level ridging to secure our fate with dry air and
settled weather into midweek, possibly early Thursday morning.
The high pressure system will eventually slide east away from
the area while upper level ridging flattens out allowing a
frontal boundary to approach from the west. Long range models
have a good hold on this feature which is why the forecast
carries high chance POPs going from late Wednesday through
Thursday. From then on active weather sets in with diurnal
chances for thunderstorms on a daily basis along with a few
short waves.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 130 AM Friday...

Some valley fog across the mountain valleys may bring EKN down
to IFR for mid morning, but the other sites may be left out at
this time. During the rest of the period, VFR will remain the
dominant flight category. During the afternoon a Cu field,
above MVFR, should develop and there may be some isolated shower
and storm potential, but this will be very isolated in nature,
therefore left mention out of TAFs.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              FRI 06/28/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
Brief IFR possible with thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JZ
NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...JZ