Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
355 FXUS61 KRLX 292301 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 701 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... 00Z aviation discussion has been issued. The National Blend of Models has sped up the timing of the front on Friday with likely PoPs coming in a bit sooner than the previous forecast package. The weekend still looks to be up in the air with models showing low confidence of frontal passage in a timely manner with the frontal boundary meandering into Monday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1.) A warming trend into Friday with mainly dry conditions. 2.) Widespread rain and thunderstorm chances return Friday afternoon courtesy of a cold frontal boundary which could possibly linger through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Surface high pressure and upper level ridging keeps the region dry with weak boundary layer flow. This will promote valley fog once again overnight tonight into Wednesday morning. Some areas may see dense fog which could impact certain areas with patchy dense fog through the morning which would lower visibility and possibly impact driving conditions. Temperatures will continue to warm through the work week getting anomalously above the average for this time of year by Thursday. However, by Friday temperatures will start to come down in values due to cloud coverage and a cold frontal boundary affecting the region possibly into or through the weekend. KEY MESSAGE 2... A cold front is forecast to affect the region on Friday afternoon pushing into the area from the north which will subsequently spread rain and chances for thunderstorms throughout the day toward the south. The lack of any modest shear and high instability will limit the severe weather threat, however a few stronger storms cannot be ruled out. Heavy downpours are possible with enough DCAPE and PWAT values to support this solution. Very localized instances of flash flooding could be possible along low lying and flood prone areas who are hit repeatedly for Friday and even on Saturday. WPC has us in a marginal threat for excessive rainfall for much of the area on Saturday. Depending on how long the frontal boundary meanders across the area will determine the severity threat of any real hydro issues. Medium range models have the front slowing down and possibly becoming stationary as high pressure from the south does not allow for safe and quick frontal passage. This means that the area may have to endure unsettled weather for much of the weekend until stronger high pressure builds in from the northwest and a clipper type system finally brushes the quasi- stationary frontal boundary out of the region pushing it well to our south by Monday morning according to models. This model solution means that more active weather will likely stick around through the weekend and possibly give the area some issues with hydro on Saturday albeit localized and isolated since the area has been dry but will likely be slightly primed due to any convection that occurs on Friday. If the frontal boundary has trouble exiting on Sunday any primed areas from previous rainfall could promote susceptible areas to flash flooding under heavy thunderstorm or downpour activity throughout Sunday and into Monday or when the front finally exits far enough to the south to mitigate impacts. Stronger high pressure will filter in Monday and get the region back into a settled weather pattern with temperatures returning back down to around the climatological average for this time of year. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A stubborn stratus deck along and east of the I-79 corridor will continue to slowly erode throughout the remainder of the evening, with CIGs remaining VFR. Valley fog is expected to form during the overnight hours and affect most of the terminals, with the exception of KBKW, where VSBYs should remain VFR. KHTS is less certain with respect to the density of fog, but VSBY should teeter between MVFR and VFR heading towards sunrise Wednesday. Otherwise, IFR/LIFR VSBYs are forecast to evolve at all other terminals, with the potential for VLIFR CIGs during the predawn hours Wednesday. Conditions will rapidly improve to VFR after sunrise, with a gentle, southeasterly breeze transitioning towards the southwest by Wednesday afternoon. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low-medium for fog tonight, but high otherwise. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: The coverage and timing of fog may vary from the forecast during the overnight hours. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED UTC 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 EDT 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L L L M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L L L L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M L M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M L M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L L L M M AFTER 00Z THURSDAY... IFR VSBYs may return to KEKN early Thursday morning, but VFR is forecast to continue beyond Wednesday evening into Thursday. Rain chances return Friday and into the weekend, with reductions to CIGs and VSBYs possible. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JZ AVIATION...Sincavage