888
FXUS61 KRLX 151309
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
909 AM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Slow moving rain showers and storms will continue through early
next week, influenced by an upper level low system and a
stationary front. Heavy rain and localized flooding possible.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 905 AM Sunday...

Expanded Flash Flood Watch to the west into counties that
received some heavy rainfall last night with several localized
instances of 1hr flash flood guidance around 1 inch. While the
best chances for localized significant issues remain in and
near the higher terrain this afternoon into this evening, slow
moving and efficient showers could easily exceed flash flood
guidance in these areas resulting in high water issues.

In general, the overall risk for more widespread significant
instances of flash flooding has decreased slightly with
weakening of the previously progged band of enhanced H850 flow
into the higher terrain as a result of the upper low
transitioning into more of an open wave. Still, highly efficient
warm rain process heavy rain will likely lead to at least
isolated water issues, some locally significant.

As of 355 AM Sunday...

A Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for portions of eastern,
central and northern West Virginia, and for Washington county
in SE OH from noon today through this evening.

As of 245 AM Sunday...

Forecast weather charts show nearly stationary frontal boundary
oscillating north to south over our CWA overnight into Sunday night.
Meanwhile, the upper-level low moves over the OH Valley and WV by
this morning, exiting east by late Sunday night. Models
consensus shows a series of vorticity maxima associated with
this low, crossing our area today. These features will provide
adequate forcing to act under a juicy airmass, triggering
convection. The afternoon heating and orographic effects will
enhance convection into Sunday evening.

An increase in moisture is noted with PWATs reaching 1.9 inches
(+2sd from climatology), and surface dewpoints in the low to mid
70s. Deep layered shear values are very low. These conditions will
allow for strong updrafts, probably water loading, to produce heavy
downpours. Timing and location of showers and storms could be
anywhere and anytime over our area Sunday and Sunday night. Model
consensus suggest QPF of 1 to 3 inches of rain possible across the
central and northern mountains into Monday. However, rainfall rates
1 to 2 inches per hour and the slow cell motions may yield to
localized totals of 3 to 4 inches. Therefore, allowed likely and
categorical PoPs Sunday afternoon and evening when confidence runs
higher for this time period.

WPC maintains a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall over the WV,
southwest VA and portions of SE OH through Monday morning. Although
the probability of severe thunderstorms is low, heavier storms will
be able to produce heavy downpours capable to produce flash flooding
of streets, creeks, low-lying and poor drainage areas today and
tonight. Instances of localized significant flooding are also
possible. Therefore, a Flood Watch for flash flooding may be needed
across portions of our CWA today through Monday morning. Continued
coordinating with neighboring offices before issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 340 AM Sunday...

Key Point:
* Unsettled with localized flood concerns persisting through the
  beginning of the work week.

A lingering front continues to support showers and thunderstorms on
Monday, with most robust activity expected to occur during the
afternoon and evening hours. A shortwave trough approaches from the
west, and then nudges the front to the north as it treks across the
CWA Tuesday into Tuesday night.

Given the locally heavy rain over the past couple of days, and the
potential for additional heavy rain in storms early this week,
marginal risks of excessive rainfall remain present through Tuesday.

While a few strong storms could also develop each day, better
potential for severe weather is expected in conjunction with
the shortwave, and as instability peaks Tuesday afternoon and
evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 340 AM Sunday...

Key Points:
* Active most of the work week.
* High pressure arrives late week into next weekend.

Residual moisture and shortwave energy may sustain a chance of
showers and thunderstorms during the day Wednesday; however, better
precipitation chances are expected to spread into the area as a cold
front approaches, and then passes through, the area during the
latter half of the work week. A period of quieter weather may
finally be on the horizon as high pressure builds in behind the
front late week into next weekend.

Temperatures are expected to range from near to above normal mid to
late week, with potential for rather hot conditions to develop
next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 619 AM Sunday...

IFR/LIFR conditions under dense fog at CRW, PKB and CKB early
this morning will quickly lift to VFR by 12-13Z.

Radar imagery shows widely scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms rotating around the Tri-state area (OH, KY, WV) as
the upper level low drifts east today. This low will bring
adequate forcing to enhance afternoon convection through this
evening. Therefore, expect convection to increase in coverage
and intensity this afternoon and evening, to produce brief
periods of IFR/LIFR visibility under heavier showers or storms.
Coded IFR conditions in TEMPO and PROB30 groups with
thunderstorms from 18-22Z across western terminals, and 20-24Z
across the eastern sites. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
anticipated outside convection through this evening.

Periods of IFR/LIFR conditions under patchy dense fog will be
possible later tonight, mainly over areas that receive rainfall.

Calm to light and variable winds will prevail through the
period. Light and variable flow this morning becomes light
cyclonic as low pressure aloft moves overhead through tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and magnitude of impacts from
convection may vary from the forecast. Locally dense fog
possible overnight where any heavy rain falls.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    L    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    H    M    M    M    L    L    M    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    M    M    H

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
Brief IFR possible in rounds of showers and thunderstorms
into next week. Locally heavy rain during the afternoons and
evenings could yield patchy dense overnight fog each night.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for WVZ006>011-013>020-
     026>032-039-040-515>526.
OH...Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ067-075-076-
     085>087.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/20
NEAR TERM...ARJ/JP
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM...20
AVIATION...ARJ