065
FXUS61 KRLX 190831
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
431 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
12Z Aviation Forecast Discussion update.

No significant changes have been made since the last forecast
package.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A break extends into this evening until chances of shower or
thunderstorm activity increase once again.

2) Active weather for the rest of the weekend and into the new
work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Surface high pressure fleets toward the southwest although
upper level ridging will still impact the region and create
subsidence to cap us through most of today. An upper level short
wave will ride along the periphery of the ridge and raise
chances for shower or storm activity during this evening and
into Sunday morning. With the lack of strong upper level
steering storms that evolve may move slowly and cause issues of
localized flash flooding although this would be isolated in
nature.

Much of the area has been dry for at least a few days and the
ones that have not been dry have not received much in the way
of heavy rainfall, therefore mainly only flood prone and low
lying areas would be at the greatest risk for flash flooding.
WPC has us in a slight risk for excessive rainfall along the
Ohio River and west of there. The western half of West Virignia
is under a marginal risk for excessive rainfall as well. PWATs
are up near 2 inches and DCAPE is sufficient to promote down
bursting which would cause damaging wind gusts. This is
supported by a marginal risk for severe storms by SPC across
mainly the Tri-state area where sufficient instability will
exist. With the lack of shear storms will likely not last too
long and strong to severe ones will likely be very isolated.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Another active day on Sunday as we will be in a marginal for
severe threat across much of the area for the afternoon and
evening. WPC has us under a marginal to slight for excessive
rainfall as well which is supportive of anomalously high PWATs
for this time of year. More isolated flooding is possible under
weak steering flow and heavy downpours. The main threat from
any strong to severe storms will be damaging wind.

More activity is then forecast as a frontal boundary drapes
across the region into midweek and promotes more chances of
unsettled weather and strong to severe thunderstorm probability
as the feature becomes quasi-stationary and meanders about the
area slowly traveling to the south.

An upper low pressure system then digs across the Great Lakes
and influences our area for the latter half of the work week
with more chances for activity under a very active weather
pattern. Temperatures will maintain below seasonable with active
weather around and the lack of high pressure to cause any
compressional heating.

By end of the work week, strong high pressure looks to build in
according to medium range models to where the region will be
blocked off from unsettled weather for at least the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Fairly dense fog has developed across all sites except for HTS
who has surface flow out of the northeast and PKB who worked
its way out of fog. Any fog and/or low stratus should lift by
13/14Z and then VFR will prevail until overnight tonight when
more valley fog is possible.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Impacts and extent of fog may vary from
the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    SAT 09/19/26
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    M    M    H    H    M    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    M    M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR conditions possible in dense fog Sunday morning, especially
in the mountain valleys.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JZ
AVIATION...JZ