670
FXUS61 KRLX 221715
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
115 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No changes to previous forecast thinking.


&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 1) Drier weather takes hold across the area. Convective
  complexes possible towards the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Much quieter weather taking hold across the area. Frontal boundary
continues to slide south of the area, with surface high pressure
building in from the north. Still could be a few showers or storms
today, mainly across the south and east in vicinity of frontal
boundary and due to heating, along with perhaps a pop up across the
mountains Thursday afternoon. Otherwise, dry weather will take hold
until Friday into Saturday, when a few weak disturbances will aid in
generating isolated showers and storms, mainly across the south and
east. Fog can be expected most mornings this week.

Focus then shifts to Sunday into Monday in which upper trough
deepens to our east, with amplified NW flow taking hold across the
area. There are indications of convective complexes forming over the
midwest, and moving southeast into our area in this pattern in the
Sunday into Monday time frame. Still a bit too early to tell if
there will be much of a severe or flooding threat, but period will
need to be monitored as we get closer.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Conditions are gradually improving to VFR across the area, with
only local MVFR cigs remaining at a few spots, mainly south/east
of the Ohio River.

An isolated shower or storm is possible across the mountains
today, with brief MVFR conditions possible, however, confidence
is low.

After 06Z, expect areas of fog, particularly in favored river
valleys. LIFR/VLIFR or worse conditions are possible, and
included at most likely TAF locations. It`s possible due to the
saturated nature of the ground in many locations that fog could
be worse than currently forecast.

Any fog will dissipate after 12Z with a return of VFR
conditions.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog formation overnight tonight may vary
from the forecast in timing, location or intensity.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    M    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR to VLIFR valley fog again Friday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SL
AVIATION...SL