181
FXUS61 KRLX 170926
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
526 AM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Aviation discussion updated at 0930Z

In coordination with the Jackson KY forecast office, the Flash
Flood Watch has been expanded to cover our remaining counties
in southern West Virginia and southwest Virginia. Convective-
allowing models show the potential for up to 2 inches of
new rainfall today in these areas, which may exceed flash flood
guidance.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) The threat of additional flash flooding will continue today
with more showers and storms expected. The overall severe
storm threat will be lower today compared to Sunday, but a few
stronger storms still cannot be ruled out.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Additional thunderstorms are expected today, and with a very
saturated ground from this past weekend`s rainfall, the threat
of flash flooding will continue. This is the reason for the
extension of the Flash Flood Watch through 06Z Tuesday.

At the time of this writing, a thunderstorm complex is currently
seen over southern Illinois, moving eastward. Convective-allowing
models show this complex gradually weakening as it approaches
our northeast Kentucky counties between 12-14Z this morning. A
cold front will cross the region from west to east by this
evening. The combination of an approaching cold front and waves
of mid- level vorticity will create new chances of showers and
thunderstorms across the region. Precipitable water values will
remain very high, ranging from 2.00 to 2.30 inches. Heavy
downpours on extremely saturated soils can quickly lead to new
flash flooding.

Today`s severe weather threat will be a bit lower compared to
what was seen Sunday. While there will still be ample
instability (800-1,200 J/kg of MLCAPE), bulk shear will be
weaker (20-30 kts Monday compared to 30-40 kts Sunday), which
should keep the organization of many storms below severe limits.
However, with the extremely saturated soils seen across the
region, it may not take as much wind to cause tree damage.

Dry weather will finally move in behind the aforementioned cold
front Tuesday and Wednesday. A new trough Thursday into Friday
will create new chances of showers and thunderstorms for the end
of the work week. The trough will linger throughout the weekend,
keeping thunderstorms in the forecast. However, the coverage
and intensity of this weekend`s storms should be lower than
what was seen the past few days.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

MVFR/IFR/LIFR restrictions are seen this morning in low stratus.
Dense fog is not much of an issue this morning due to a steady
wind from the west. Expect low stratus restrictions to
gradually improve between 13-15Z this morning.

By 16-18Z, additional thunderstorms will develop. Once again,
any thunderstorm can cause IFR/LIFR visibility restrictions in
downpours.

Dense fog is expected overnight into early Tuesday morning as
winds turn calm.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Restrictions in fog and low stratus early this
morning may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EDT 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    M    M    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    M    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR or lower possible in valley fog and low stratus Monday
night and Tuesday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch through late tonight for WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>034-039-040-515>526.
OH...Flood Watch through late tonight for OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...Flood Watch through late tonight for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...Flood Watch through late tonight for VAZ003-004.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...26