152
FXUS61 KRLX 181239
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
839 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated strong storms will be possible today. A prolonged heat
wave continues throughout the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 840 AM Tuesday...
No changes necessary to forecast.


As of 600 AM Tuesday...

The near term forecast is generally on track this morning, with
no significant changes needed at this time.

As of 240 AM Tuesday...

Key Points:
* Hot, with potential for isolated strong storms and locally heavy
  rain this afternoon and evening.
* Heat Advisory remains in effect.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are gradually diminishing in
coverage while areas of fog begin to form early this morning. Any
fog that does develop should disperse around sunrise.

In the upper levels, high pressure will be in control over much of
the eastern US both today and tonight. Beneath this high, hot
daytime temperatures and humidity will again lead to unstable
conditions and the potential for showers and storms during the day.
Much like yesterday, model soundings show strong CAPE, weak shear,
and precipitable water values in the 1.5 to 2 inch range during the
afternoon and evening hours. In this environment, isolated storms
could produce strong wind gusts and locally heavy rain. Much of the
area resides in a general thunderstorm risk, though a marginal risk
of severe weather has been introduced for a portion of southeast
Ohio. Shower and storm activity should lessen tonight.

High temperatures will rise into the low to mid 90s in the lowlands
this afternoon, while the mountains should range from mid 70s to low
90s. A couple of climate sites could come within a few degrees of
their record highs (see climate discussion below). A Heat
Advisory also remains in effect as a combination of heat and
humidity are projected to make it feel more like upper 90s to
low 100s in the lowlands this afternoon. Tonight will be warm,
with lows remaining in the upper 60s to low 70s in the lowlands
and low to mid 60s in the mountains.

Heat safety tips:
* Drink plenty of fluids
* Wear light, loose fitting clothing
* Take breaks in the shade or air conditioned locations
* Never leave children or pets in an unattended vehicle
* Check on elderly or heat sensitive individuals
* Know the signs of heat illness

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 310 AM Tuesday...

The upper-level ridge and surface high pressure will remain
over the area for the middle of the week, keeping the CWA hot
and dry. Highs on Wednesday will be in the low to mid-90s, with
most locations a few degrees hotter on Thursday. Deepening dry
air aloft will mix down during this period, and likely will help
keep afternoon heat index values under 100F. However, with the
expectation for overnight lows around or a bit above 70F each
night, the heat stress will continue to compound across the area
and the Advisory will remain in place.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 325 AM Tuesday...

Most guidance has Friday and Saturday as the hottest days of the
week-long heatwave, with lower elevation highs mostly mid to
upper 90s, while the mountains get into the 80s. The upper-level
ridge is forecast to start getting suppressed southward on
Saturday as an upper-level trough crosses the Upper Mississippi
Valley and heads towards the Great Lakes. However, that is
likely to have a negligible impact on temps for Saturday.
Gradually increasing moisture could allow for some afternoon or
evening showers over the northern mountains on Saturday. As the
upper trough and surface front push into the Midwest on Sunday,
area-wide isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will
be possible.

POPs are currently highest for Sunday night into Monday, which
is when most guidance would have the surface front passing
through our area, However, there still remains 12 hours or more
of spread in the timing, so POPs were kept to Chance levels at
best for the time being. Regardless, after two very hot days on
Friday and Saturday, the additional cloud cover on Sunday and
expected front and precip on Monday should provide a gradual
decrease of almost 10 degrees in forecast highs for Monday as
compared to Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 600 AM Tuesday...

VFR will return to all terminals once fog dissipates after sunrise.
While VFR is expected for most of the day, brief reductions in
visibility to MVFR/IFR could occur in isolated showers and storms
that develop this afternoon and evening. Activity should lessen
overnight, then at least partial clearing and calm winds may allow
fog to develop again overnight.

Strong, gusty winds could occur in today`s storms. Otherwise,
south to southeast flow will be light during the day and then
calm to light overnight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Brief sub-VFR conditions could occur in
showers/storms today. Fog tonight may be more widespread than
currently forecast.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 240 AM Tuesday...

A prolonged heat wave continues across the area through this
week. Temperatures are forecast to approach record highs at some
locations on several days. The records for Tuesday, June 18 to
Sunday, June 23 are listed below for our official climate
sites, along with the current forecast values.

           Forecast / Record High Temperatures
--------------------------------------------------------
       Tuesday, 6/18 | Wednesday, 6/19| Thursday, 6/20 |
--------------------------------------------------------
CRW | 93 / 98 (1944) | 92 / 98 (1919) | 94 / 99 (1931) |
HTS | 93 / 98 (1944) | 93 / 98 (1994) | 95 /100 (1931) |
CKB | 93 / 96 (1936) | 92 / 94 (1994) | 94 / 94 (1931) |
PKB | 94 / 98 (1944) | 94 / 95 (1994) | 96 / 97 (1931) |
BKW | 86 / 93 (1936) | 85 / 90 (1944) | 88 / 92 (1931) |
EKN | 90 / 91 (1994) | 90 / 89 (1905) | 91 / 92 (1931) |
--------------------------------------------------------
       Friday, 6/21  | Saturday, 6/22 |  Sunday, 6/23  |
--------------------------------------------------------
CRW | 97 /105 (1931) | 97 / 98 (1988) | 94 /100 (1929) |
HTS | 99 / 99 (1953) | 98 / 98 (1988) | 95 /100 (1930) |
CKB | 95 / 98 (1953) | 95 / 97 (1923) | 92 / 96 (1957) |
PKB | 98 / 97 (1953) | 97 / 98 (1988) | 94 / 94 (1964) |
BKW | 91 / 93 (1953) | 91 / 92 (1931) | 88 / 91 (1931) |
EKN | 92 / 92 (1953) | 92 / 93 (1923) | 90 / 89 (1899) |
--------------------------------------------------------

Additionally, the all-time June high temperature records may
be neared in some locations. Listed below are the maximum
temperatures currently forecast during the heat wave versus
the all-time June high temperature records.

     Max Forecast  All-time June Record
-----------------------------------------
CRW |     97     |       105 (1931)     |
HTS |     99     |       105 (1930)     |
CKB |     95     |       100 (1925)     |
PKB |     98     |       100 (1988)     |
BKW |     91     |       100 (1936)     |
EKN |     92     |        96 (2012)     |
-----------------------------------------

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>032-039-040.
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK/JLB
NEAR TERM...SL/JLB
SHORT TERM...FK
LONG TERM...FK
AVIATION...JLB

CLIMATE...