900
FXUS61 KRLX 170957
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
557 AM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A tropically influenced airmass remains over the region with
numerous weak disturbances passing through. Locally heavy
showers and storms are possible each afternoon into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 555 AM Thursday...

Isolated showers continue to move across the eastern part of the
CWA this morning. Have refreshed PoPs to account for this
activity.

As of 350 AM Thursday...

Key Point:
* A Flood Watch is in effect this afternoon into tonight.

The forecast area remains entrenched within a warm, moist, and
unstable environment while a front approaches from the north today,
and then slowly descends into the area overnight. Meanwhile,
predominantly zonal flow is expected in the upper levels.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to spread across the area
during the day, with most robust activity occurring through the
afternoon and evening. A passing shortwave may then help to sustain
activity overnight.

A combination of wet antecedent conditions and additional heavy
rainfall raises the risk of flash flooding across the majority of
the area. Training storms will also help to enhance the flood risk
today. A Flood Watch has been issued for much of WV, northeast KY,
southeast OH, and southwest VA from this afternoon through tonight.

A few storms could also be capable of producing wind damage in
downbursts this afternoon and evening; therefore, a marginal risk of
severe weather covers the entire forecast area.

Portions of the lowlands are once again expected to fell very hot,
with apparent temperatures rising into the upper 90s. Like
yesterday, the heat risk may be somewhat tempered by
precipitation.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 350 AM Thursday...

Daily chances of rain and thunderstorms persist as a front remains
in the vicinity of the middle Ohio Valley and Central Appalachians
through the end of the week. Given the already wet conditions
present across the area, additional rounds of locally heavy rain
will do little to alleviate flood concerns; therefore, marginal to
slight excessive rainfall risks cover the entirety of the forecast
area late this week.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 350 AM Thursday...

Unsettled weather continues as a system passes to the north and
pulls another front down into the forecast area early next week.
Around mid week, the front slowly lifts north as a ridge builds in
from the southwest. However, shortwaves riding around the periphery
of the ridge should sustain precipitation chances through the end of
the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 555 AM Thursday...

Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage during the
day, then showers remain possible as a front sinks down into
the area tonight. While mainly VFR conditions should continue
outside of storms, MVFR to IFR will be possible within heavier
rain and storms.

Light to moderate west to southwest winds are expected through
the day, with gusts into the teens possible this afternoon.
Stronger, variable gusts are possible storms. Winds should then
weaken overnight. Patchy post-rain fog/mist could be possible
tonight, though extent will depend on lingering cloud cover and
precipitation.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, locations and intensity of showers
and thunderstorms could vary from forecast. Overnight fog
formation is not entirely out of the question tonight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EDT 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
Brief periods of IFR conditions possible under showers and
thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours into
next week. IFR or worse fog is also possible during the
overnights, especially where any heavy rain falls the previous
day.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through this evening
     for WVZ005>011-013>020-024>034-039-040-515>526.
OH...Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through this evening
     for OHZ075-076-083>087.
KY...Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through this evening
     for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through this evening
     for VAZ003-004.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...20
NEAR TERM...20
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM...20
AVIATION...20