992
FXUS61 KRLX 140744
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
344 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Quasi-stationary front located north of the area, and an upper-
level low, approaching from the west will maintain good chances
for showers and thunderstorms through much of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 245 AM Saturday...

Forecast weather charts show a slow moving upper-level trough/low
pressure, rotating as it drifts south over Missouri overnight, then
moving east into the TN/KY valley on Saturday. Meanwhile, a quasi-
stationary frontal boundary remains oriented west to east just north
of our CWA. These two features will interact to each other,
keeping unsettled atmospheric conditions into the beginning of
next week.

The upper-level low/trough will send several shortwaves over our
area providing upper-level support under unstable conditions south
of the frontal boundary. Model parameter evaluation suggests a juicy
atmosphere in place with dewpoints in the upper 60s and theta-e
exceeding 340K. Deep layered shear is very low, and PWATs about 1.5
inches does not look impressive at this time. Therefore, expect
showers and storms, with increasing in coverage and intensity during
the afternoon and evening hours on Saturday. WPC guidance suggests
widespread 0.25 to 0.50 inches of rain expected, with pockets of
0.75 to 1.0 inches mainly across the Tri-state area (OH,KY,WV) by
Saturday evening.

Therefore, not expecting much in terms of severe storms, but locally
heavy downpours will be capable to produce flooding of streets,
creeks, low lying and poor drainage areas. A Flash Flood Watch
may be required for Sunday or Monday.

The upper low positions just west of our CWA Saturday evening,
bringing additional support to enhance convection into Saturday
night.

It will feel muggy again with afternoon temperatures reaching the
low to mid 80s, and dewpoints in the lower 70s. Tonight,
temperatures should drop closer to their dewpoints to produce areas
of dense fog over areas that receive rain during the past 24 hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 340 AM Saturday...

Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue through
Sunday due to a lingering front and shortwave energy passing over
the area. Activity could temporarily lessen overnight, but should
redevelop in the vicinity of the front and as another shortwave
approaches from the west on Monday.

With precipitable water values ranging from 1.5 to 2 inches, storms
are likely to be efficient rain producers capable of instigating
localized flash flooding. Locations impacted by high rainfall
amounts over the previous couple of days will be especially
susceptible to flooding on Sunday and Monday. Moderate to strong
instability could also support a few stronger storms during the
afternoon and evening hours; however, a lack of strong shear should
help to lower the risk of severe weather.

High temperatures are expected to average upper 70s to mid 80s in
the lowlands and mid 60s to upper 70s in the mountains. Meanwhile,
lows are projected to range from upper 50s to 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 340 AM Saturday...

Although the aforementioned front shifts well to the north on
Tuesday, residual moisture and passing shortwaves may allow
some diurnal shower and thunderstorm activity to linger into mid
week. Unsettled weather then remains possible as a low pressure
system pushes a cold front across the area late next week.

Temperatures are expected to hover near to slightly above
normal through the end of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 146 AM Saturday...

Radar imagery shows scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
affecting EKN, and moving northeast at the moment of writing.
The rest of radar scope looks fairly dry with only isolated light
rain echoes. Periods of post rain fog will be possible at EKN, CRW
and HTS, but should not prevail longer per abundant cloudiness
blocking radiational cooling.

Conditions will start VFR, except MVFR/IFR at EKN under showers and
storms. Then, MVFR ceilings may develop near the quasi-stationary
frontal boundary parked just north of the area to affect CKB and PKB
overnight.

Calm to light southerly winds will prevail overnight into Saturday
morning, then light from the southwest for the rest of Saturday.

Additional showers and storms activity is expected Saturday night as
a series of shortwaves associated with a passing upper level
trough/low cross the area. Periods of IFR/LIFR conditions are
expected under showers and storms. Periods of post rain fog will be
possible Saturday night into Sunday morning.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog could develop overnight tonight into
Saturday morning over areas that receive rain.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         SAT 06/14/25
UTC 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
EDT 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    H    M    M    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    M    H    L    M    M    H    H    H    L    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
Brief IFR possible in rounds of showers and thunderstorms
into next week. Locally heavy rain during the afternoons and
evenings could yield patchy overnight dense fog each night.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/20
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM...20
AVIATION...ARJ