410
FXUS61 KRLX 210209
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
909 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Chances of rain tonight into Friday, continuing into Saturday.
A more potent system arrives possibly Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 908 PM Thursday...

Updated the forecast to cover scattered light rain that is
further north than expected.


As of 445 PM Thursday...

Updated the forecast to reflect the faster timing of rain
arriving based on the latest radar trends.


As of 1225 PM Thursday...

Drier conditions continue across the area today, however it remains
rather gloomy, as ample moisture remains trapped beneath an
inversion. This should generally linger for the near term period,
with some improvement in visibility and cloud height this afternoon
and evening before lowering again tonight. Temperatures overnight
will remain rather mild owing to the cloud cover.

On Friday, a warm frontal boundary associated with a low pressure
system that develops in response to a shortwave across the southern
U.S. will move into the area, with showers and thunderstorms
developing. This should be yet another good soaking rain across much
of the region, with high moisture content air streaming into the
region, with PW values progged to be anomalously high for this time
of year, generally 1.2 to 1.3 inches. Heavier rains at this time
look to be far northern zones/just north of the area, as a low
pressure wave rides east along the frontal boundary Friday evening.
Threat for severe looks to be rather low owing to a lack of decent
instability/cape. Precipitation will gradually taper off late Friday
into Saturday as shortwave energy crosses and a front sweeps across
the area, but precipitation may linger across southern zones as
another low pressure wave moves through on Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /2 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1225 PM Thursday...

Precipitation will gradually taper off late Friday into Saturday as
shortwave energy crosses and a front sweeps across the area, but
precipitation may linger across southern zones as another low
pressure wave moves through on Saturday. Otherwise, a gradual drying
trend will take hold for later Saturday into Sunday as high pressure
builds into the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1225 PM Thursday...

Monday looks to be continued dry, and warmer, as high pressure
remains in control, and upper heights build across the area in
response to an approaching system/trough. Focus then shifts to
Tuesday into Wednesday next week, with indications for a potent low
to develop across the southwest U.S., eventually lifting northeast
towards the area. Strengthening winds associated with this system
will help to draw ample moisture from the Gulf region towards our
CWA, with another soaking rain expected.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 640 PM Thursday...

There is currently a sharp cutoff between VFR and IFR conditions
over northern West Virginia and southeast Ohio. The VFR has been
expanding northward and northwestward, but models disagree on
whether it will continue or stall, with some models even showing
the stratus building back into areas that have cleared. This
leads to uncertainty for PKB, CKB, EKN, and HTS. Rain will move
into the area later tonight and Friday, causing IFR and MVFR
restrictions to return throughout the area.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low PKB. Medium CKB, EKN, and HTS. High CRW
and BKW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR stratus could effect northern and
western West Virginia and southeast Ohio overnight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 FRI
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    L    L    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    L    L    L

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
Areas of IFR in rain possible Friday night into early Saturday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SL
NEAR TERM...RPY/SL
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...RPY