535
FXUS61 KRLX 141715
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
115 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Daily chances for mainly diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms continue through the week as a warm and moist
airmass remains in place.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1207 PM Monday...

Warm, humid and unstable continues to be the name of the game in the
near term period. Frontal boundary just to our north should sag a
little farther south today towards the Ohio River vicinity. Showers
and storms, already apparent on radar, will continue throughout the
near term, both from passing weak waves and heating. Very heavy
rainfall can be expected with any storms, with observed PW values
around the 2 inch mark across much of the area. Overall, no
significant severe weather threat is anticipated, however, an
isolated strong to severe storm cannot be completely ruled out, with
a damaging wind threat owing to precip loading. Frontal boundary may
move slightly north on Tuesday, with the continuation of the warm,
humid, unstable conditions, with shower and storm activity ramping
back up in the afternoon hours again.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1207 PM Monday...

Wednesday and Thursday look to remain unsettled across the area. A
low pressure system will move into, and eventually east across the
Great Lakes region during the period, dragging a front closer to the
area towards the end of the period. Multiple shortwaves moving
through the area will trigger showers and storms at times, with
heavy downpours. There is the potential we could hit heat advisory
criteria on Wednesday and Thursday afternoons, but afternoon storm
activity could damper this.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1207 PM Monday...

Unsettled weather continues in the long term period, with a
continuation of the warm and humid conditions, with showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 111 PM Monday...


Showers and thunderstorms, with brief IFR conditions.
Otherwise, areas of MVFR ceilings continue to linger across the
area.

After 00Z, showers and storms will slowly decrease in coverage.
However, after 04-06Z, expecting widespread LIFR/VLIFR fog to
develop, and linger through at least 12-14Z Tuesday.

After 14Z, expect mainly VFR although areas of MVFR cigs may
continue to linger. Showers and storms will also start to ramp
back up again after 16-18Z.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent and intensity of rain and storms
today, and fog tonight, may vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
EDT 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
Brief periods of IFR conditions possible under showers and
thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours.
IFR or worse fog is also possible overnight.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...SL