Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
855 FXUS61 KRLX 021811 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 211 PM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to the previous forecast package. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A cold front provides showers and possible thunderstorms to the area into the weekend. 2) Cooler and quieter for the new work week, with potential for frost early Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... The cold front is currently draped across southeast Ohio and is pushing further into our area moving slowly southward through this afternoon and evening. As of now, light shower activity is prevalent across much of the northwest area in our CWA. No thunderstorms have been observed at the moment, however we cannot rule out some isolated instances of a thunderstorm which may lead to stronger winds gusts than what is out there already. SPS worthy winds gusts will likely not be the case and the severe threat is nil due to low instability and the lack of strong wind shear. WPC has us under a marginal threat for excessive rainfall which could promote very isolated and localized instances of flash flooding really only across flood or nuisance prone areas under possible heavier downpours. The area has been dry and flash flood guidance is on the high side elsewhere so the threat is confined to those aforementioned areas. This shower and possible storm activity will go into the evening as the front finally sags to our south for a clean frontal passage, however the front will meander about to our south providing additional chances for shower or storm activity for tonight and for Saturday. This potential activity will be mainly confined to the southernmost portions of West Virginia and southwest Virginia and will be sub-severe in nature. WPC also has us under a marginal threat for excessive rainfall so again, some isolated instances of flash flooding are possible under flood prone or nuisance areas. A wave of low pressure is then forecast to ride along the boundary to our south and bring in more chances for shower and/or thunderstorms for Sunday morning albeit sub-severe in nature once again. WPC again has us under a marginal however to a slight threat for the extreme southern portions of our CWA for Sunday, although any activity should be exiting by early Sunday evening. The aforementioned system moves away from the area as another system, a broad clipper type system, brings a reinforcing cold frontal boundary through the area the rest of Sunday. This new feature will push the meandering wave out of the area and provide stronger high pressure building in from the north. This cold frontal boundary will be moisture starved and provide drier and cooler weather to start the new work week. KEY MESSAGE 2... With the main weather maker exiting toward the south by Monday morning, strong high pressure builds in and advects in cold air which will maintain temperatures down to below seasonable for the new work week. This high pressure system will provide a break from unsettled weather for the rest of the work week and possibly beyond. As the cooler and quieter weather sets in for the new work week the potential for frost across the northeast mountains could occur on early Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. Temperatures should then moderate some for the second half of the work week to where the threat for frost will diminish. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MVFR CIGs and VIS are expected if hit by a shower will be the main theme going into this forecast TAF period. IFR conditions are possible under heavier showers or thunderstorm activity and also in CIGs across EKN/BKW this evening and for the overnight. Cold frontal passage will provide a wind shift with the winds prevailing out of the west-northwest by this late afternoon and into the evening. Gusty conditions will be the case as the front shifts through the area today and will subside by tonight. CIGs will then lift and scatter out of all sites except for BKW by early to mid morning Saturday. Locally stronger wind gusts may be possible in thunderstorm activity, however will stay sub-severe in nature. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Onset time of showers and thunderstorms may vary from the forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H M H M M M H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M H M M M M M H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H M L L L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M H L M M H H L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M M H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H M M M M H H H AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... No widespread IFR conditons are expected at this time. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JZ AVIATION...JZ