152
FXUS61 KRLX 310542
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
142 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather prevails into next week. A few afternoon
showers/storms possible today across the Greenbrier Valley.
Better rain chances arrive mid week. Cold front Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 130 AM Sunday...

Today, expect mostly clear skies except along the mountains
who should be under more cloud coverage due to southeasterly
flow aiding in the upslope effect. This will support shower and
thunderstorm activity associated with an upper level short wave
which is forecast to turn into an closed low by the evening.
Chances for shower and/or thunderstorm activity this afternoon
is represented well by central blended model guidance, therefore
elected to accept this solution to which chances wane by this
evening.

With the help of the lack of cloud coverage and southeasterly
flow cutting off cold air advection, temperatures will have a
good chance of breaking the 80 degree mark across the Tri-state
and Charleston Metro areas, and get into the lower 80s, however
the rest of the CWA will likely stay in the mid to upper 70s
with the mountains hovering the mid 60s.

These temperatures are still below seasonable and will even get
lower than seasonable tonight and into the overnight with lows
dropping to low to mid 50s across the lowlands and mid to upper
40s across the mountains. This will be supported by a
decoupling of the boundary layer and clear skies which will
help support optimal radiational cooling.

The overnight into morning hours on Monday will remain dry
until chances of rain come to light during the next period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 AM Sunday...

Central guidance keeps the area dry for Monday although there
is one caveat. A weak disturbance or more like a kink in the
upper levels will be able to tap into some moisture and advect
it toward the southern most portions of our CWA which could
promote an isolated shower or storm in those areas affecting
southwest Virignia mainly.

Flow will remain relatively southeasterly for this period
promoting a slight warming trend into Wednesday, thereafter
temperatures will start to decline. Sky conditions will remain
relatively clear to partly cloudy into mid week with chances of
rain shower activity coming back on Tuesday. This will be due
to a more potent disturbance forming out across the Midwest
along another kink in the upper levels which will resemble the
previous aforementioned disturbance very well.

This will add some chances to our southwestern most areas of
the CWA during the afternoon and possibly into the evening. An
isolated storm or two cannot be ruled out either. As this
disturbance traverses eastward an upper level short wave forms
out of the kink and supports the disturbance with more moisture
and lift to push potential activity across the CWA on
Wednesday.

For this reason chances will spread across the region with much
of the activity likely taking place during the late afternoon
and into the evening as that disturbance passes through the
area. This activity, diurnal in nature, will support
thunderstorm activity which would be sub-severe as of now.

Temperatures will be well below seasonable with more cloud
coverage and possible rain activity for Wednesday. There may be
a short break possibly in the late evening to the overnight
hours before more chances of rain become a factor ahead of a
cold front on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 130 AM Sunday...

On Thursday, a low pressure system forecast to traverse into
the Great Lakes area sitting and spinning north into Canada
and will provide a cold frontal passage to our area through
Thursday and into Friday morning. This cold front will be
supported by a jet and will likely cause the most activity we
will have seen in awhile. We have likelies in PoPs and elevated
chances for thunderstorm probability during fropa. Its far out,
but forecast soundings look good for heavy downpours and a
modest amount of shear which cold lead to some stronger
thunderstorm activity.

This cold air advection will lead to much more cooler weather
through the rest of the period with temperatures in the low to
mid 70s during the daytime which is at least 10 degrees lower
than the climatological average. Morning lows will sit at upper
40s to low 50s which is also about 10 degrees or more below the
climatological average.

The area will remain dry from Friday morning on with a more
westerly zonal flow regime supporting the slight cooler and
drier air with high pressure building in from the south.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 140 AM Sunday...

Once again some valley fog is likely to develop amid clear skies
and calm wind. This would only affect EKN early on and later in
the morning CRW. After the fog lifts around 13Z VFR conditions
will prevail. Once caveat is that BKW may have some shower or
storm activity near the area during the late afternoon and may
have a temporary MVFR CIG but probability is low to mention in
the TAF. Tonight, valley fog once again has potential to
develop.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent of fog may vary from the forecast.
An shower or storm could impact BKW Sunday afternoon.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SUN 08/31/25
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    L    M    M    M    M    M    L    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR conditions possible in dense river valley fog Monday morning.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A record low temperature of 46 degrees was set at Parkersburg,
WV yesterday. This breaks the old record of 47 degrees set in
1986.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JZ
NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...JZ

CLIMATE...JZ