326
FXUS61 KRLX 210740
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
340 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Potential position of effective frontal boundary late today and
tonight still in some doubt, with additional flooding possible
for central counties. Midweek outlook continues to highlight
noticeably cooler conditions and lingering rainfall.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1.)Flash flooding continues through mid-morning across
southeast Ohio and northern West Virginia.

2.) Flash flood potential and isolated severe thunderstorms
with damaging wind gusts late this afternoon through tonight.

3.) Turning noticeably cooler with localized flooding risks
continuing Tuesday and Wednesday before drier air arrives late
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

H850 southerly winds around 20 to 25KT continue to direct mass
and high moisture into an effective frontal zone draped across
northern counties through mid-morning. Precipitable water values
remain high near 1.8 to 1.9 inches. Rain totals between 1 and 3
inches have already fallen overnight on top of heavy rainfall
from the previous night, leaving soils saturated and highly
vulnerable to additional runoff. The existing Flash Flood Watch
continues through 11 AM EDT this morning, as additional
downpours could rapidly trigger localized flash flooding. The
bulk of this morning activity is forecast to diminish and exit
to the east late this morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the exact placement
of an outflow-reinforced frontal boundary late this afternoon
into this evening. Recent model trends suggest the boundary may
park farther north than previously indicated, potentially
settling near the Metro Valley. This boundary will serve as the
primary focus for renewed convective initiation late this
afternoon and evening. Moderate surface heating ahead of the
boundary will drive MLCAPE values between 1500 and 2500J/kg.
Deep-layer 0-6 km shear is modest around 25 to 30KTs supporting
some storm organization with steep low-level lapse rates and
DCAPE values exceeding 500 J/kg will support wet downburst
potential. Given full leaf canopy and very wet antecedent soils
across Appalachia, local wind damage thresholds are reduced,
shallow rooted trees easily toppling in sub severe winds.
Currently the SPC depicts a marginal risk of severe weather
across the southern half of the area with mainly a damaging wind
threat expected. With some modest low level turning in the
vicinity of the boundary and very moist low levels, could not
also rule out a tornado.

High rainfall rates exceeding 1 to 2 inches per hour will pose
a flash flood threat over any areas that saw previous heavy
rainfall. If the farther north boundary position verifies, an
extension or a new Flash Flood Watch would likely be necessary
late this afternoon and overnight for sensitive soils just north
of the Metro Valley. A farther south solution would allow
rainfall to hit soils more capable of handling a quick hit of
precipitation.

Will continue to evaluate guidance this morning regarding
modifications to the Flash Flood Watch, but this decision may
fall to the day shift.


KEY MESSAGE 3...

The persistent ring of fire pattern breaks down midweek as an
upper-level closed low deepens over the Ohio Valley and pushes
the polar front toward the Deep South. Temperatures will turn
noticeably cooler Wednesday and Thursday, with daytime highs in
the upper 50s to upper 60s, which is roughly 10 to 15 degrees
below late September climatology. However, deep moisture will
linger in the atmospheric column while an inverted trough
establishes west of the mountains ahead of a developing coastal
low through Wednesday. Embedded shortwave disturbances in
westerly flow aloft combined will support additional slow-
moving showers and thunderstorms Tuesday into Wednesday. Given
previous rainfall and compromised soils, additional localized
flash flooding will remain possible. As the coastal low tracks
north toward the Middle Atlantic coast, low- level flow will
back to the northeast, finally ushering in drier, stable air by
late in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Stratiform rain with embedded convection continues through mid-
morning for northern terminals widespread IFR/MVFR ceilings and
visibilities. Patchy dense fog across southern and mountain
valleys will dissipate through 13Z. Rain moves out to the east
between 15Z and 17Z with ceilings lifting briefly to MVFR or
VFR.

Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms develop late
this afternoon and evening after 18Z, bringing localized short-
duration IFR restrictions in heavy downpours and gusty winds.
Ceilings lower rapidly back to MVFR/IFR Monday night across all
terminals. Surface winds remaining generally light, under 10
knots, veering to the north and northeast behind the frontal
boundary.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog and low stratus coverage may vary early
this morning. Timing, location, and intensity of showers and
thunderstorms could vary.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         MON 09/21/26
UTC 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
EDT 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    M    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    L    L    L

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR conditions possible in showers and storms each day through
mid week.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch until noon EDT today for WVZ006>011-013>020-
     026>032-039-040-517>526.
OH...Flood Watch until noon EDT today for OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JP
AVIATION...JP