584
FXUS61 KRLX 172332
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
632 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A brief period of freezing rain is possible prior to switching
to rain Tuesday morning. A few showers Wednesday and Thursday,
and then another widespread rain event Thursday night and
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 620 PM Monday...

Already seeing areas subject to cold air drainage approaching
the freezing mark across southeast Ohio at this hour with road
surface temperatures falling into the upper 30s. The forecast
remains in line with previous updates with latest runs of
mesoscale models getting accumulating precipitation into some of
our southeast Ohio Counties by 6-7 AM.

As of 425 PM Monday...

Key Message:

* A brief period of freezing rain will be possible prior to
  switching to rain across the Middle Ohio Valley Tuesday morning.

With clear skies, light winds and very dry dew points this evening,
temperatures will quickly radiate down to near the freezing mark. In
areas subject to cold air drainage, temperatures are expected to
fall significantly below freezing, perhaps even down to the lower
20s in the coldest spots across the northern lowlands. Tuesday
morning, warm frontal precipitation will spread into the area around
daybreak. Areas where temperatures are near the freezing mark with
dew points in the 20s will quickly wet bulb down below freezing with
the onset of precipitation, but should rise above freezing within an
hour or so. Areas subject to cold air drainage could see a few hours
of freezing rain prior to mixing out later in the morning.

While ample sun today has resulted in road surface temperatures in
the 60s under full exposure, those areas quickly fell to near
freezing last night... areas not subject to full exposure are likely
substantially cooler (but no in-situ measurements available).
While there is likely some residual treatment left on some
surfaces from recent wintry weather, sheltered untreated
surfaces could become slick and hazardous Tuesday morning from
around 6 AM to 10 AM prior to all precipitation switching over
to rain.

Adjusted surface temperatures to reflect initially strong
radiational cooling for the first half of the overnight (likely
slowed by clouds moving in toward dawn). With subtle warm
advection aloft and temperatures remaining +3-5C at H850, have
removed most snow mentions in the forecast and replaced with
freezing rain where surface temperatures are most likely to
remain below freezing.

Given potentially high impact timing and early season nature of the
threat, will issue a short duration Winter Weather Advisory where
confidence is highest - but keep in mind that for many of these
areas covered (especially across the southern extent of the
advisory) the most significant travel impacts will be limited
to those more sheltered locations. More limited impacts could
also extend slightly beyond the the advisory, especially across
our northern counties.

As of 1138 AM Monday...

High pressure will bring dry weather the remainder of today.
Breezy conditions will continue today, especially across
northern and eastern parts of the area, as low pressure across
northern New England keeps a tightened pressure gradient over
the central and northern Appalachians.

Clouds will increase from the west overnight as a low pressure
system and a 500-mb vort max approaches. Rain from this system
will likely approach western portions of the area just before
daybreak Tuesday, spreading eastward throughout the morning.
Looking at short- range model soundings, the lower atmosphere
should be too warm to support much wintry precipitation at the
onset. However, snow could mix with rain for a brief period of
time early Tuesday morning across northern West Virginia and
portions of southeast Ohio for one or two hours before
transitioning to all rain. Tuesday will begin with temperatures
in the lower to middle 30s, and afternoon highs will range from
the upper 40s to lower 50s. Around an inch of rain can be
expected areawide through late Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1138 AM Monday...

500-mb heights will rise Wednesday, leading to the return of warmer
weather. Temperatures will reach the upper 50s and lower 60s again
for highs across the lowlands. Lingering weak energy aloft can
still bring isolated showers, but overall, Wednesday should be
drier than Tuesday.

The milder weather will continue Thursday with small chances of rain
during the day as weak energy continues along the 500-mb flow. A
more potent southern stream of energy will approach from the
southwest Thursday night as low pressure develops across the
southern Plains. This will lead to a much higher chance of
widespread rain across the middle Ohio Valley Thursday night with
PoPs ranging from 60 to 80 percent.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1138 AM Monday...

Exactly how this low pressure system across the southern Plains will
track and evolve heading into the weekend remains to be seen, as
there is a high amount of model inconsistency at this time. Some
guidance suggests that a warm front will reach West Virginia by
Friday morning and stall over the area, before exiting on
Saturday. However, this is not a universal solution across all
models. The exact track of this low pressure system will
determine how widespread the rain will be, how much rain will
fall, and how quickly it will exit. For now, we have placed our
highest rainfall probabilities for Friday with diminishing
probabilities Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 620 PM Monday...

Mainly clear skies overnight will give way to increasing mid-
level cloudiness from west to east early Tuesday morning ahead
of a warm front. Precipitation associated with this feature will
begin to overspread the region from west to east around dawn.
Some of this precipitation may initially begin at FZRA before
transitioning to rain, although this would be more favored at
the protected valley locations and not the ridgetop terminals.
Have included some 1hr PROB30 groups at HTS/PKB and CRW to
reflect some limited potential for this however.

As the column saturates, flight conditions slowly worsen through
the day, but should generally remain MVFR or better through
Tuesday evening outside of any heavier embedded showers.

Winds will be light through the period favoring a southerly or
easterly direction.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: A brief period of FZRA is possible this
morning at the western terminals. IFR conditions possible in any
heavier embedded showers, mainly Tuesday afternoon and evening.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
EST 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR possible in rain Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 10 AM EST Tuesday for
     WVZ006-007-009.
OH...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 10 AM EST Tuesday for
     OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 10 AM EST Tuesday for
     KYZ101>103.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/26
NEAR TERM...JP/26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JP