188
FXUS61 KRLX 292342
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
742 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
00Z Aviation Discussion Updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A pleasant end to the work week week gives way to increasing
chances for showers and thunderstorms this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Robust cumulus field will dissipate this evening with loss of
heating and passage of weak disturbance embedded within the
upper level trof. Still can`t rule out a spotty shower closer
to the mountains, but this should be isolated in coverage at
worst.

Expect some dense river valley overnight though extent is in
question given lack of a strong low-level inversion and a
lingering puff in the lower boundary layer. Overnight lows will
drop into the 50 for most locations.

Weak surface high builds across the region Thursday and Friday
with comfortable humidity and seasonable temperatures. Expect
another diurnally driven cumulus field tomorrow, aided by
subtle disturbances rotating southward on the back side of the
upper level trof.

Unsettled weather returns for the weekend courtesy of an upper
level trof pivoting southeast into the Ohio Valley. This will
allow for clouds to increase Friday night into Saturday with
showers and perhaps some storms arriving Saturday afternoon. The
trof axis will gradually close in on the area Sunday with
rain chances abundant during the day. There remains
uncertainty with just how progressive the trof axis is with
some model solutions advertising this axis lingers over the area
into Monday. This will ultimately determine the risk for excessive
rainfall with WPC currently highlighting a marginal risk over
parts of the area. This is something that will need to be
monitored over the next few days.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Areas of river valley fog may develop overnight; however, extent may
be limited by light flow and the presence of drier air. EKN and CRW
still appear to be the most likely terminals to experience IFR or
worse conditions due to fog, while confidence in development is
lowest at BKW, HTS, and PKB. Any restrictions will improve by mid-
morning, allowing VFR to reign for the remainder of the TAF period.

Northwest winds will relax this evening, becoming calm to light
overnight. North to northwest winds should then range from 5-12 kts
on Thursday, with a few gusts into the teens or low 20s possible
along the mountains.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent of fog may vary from the TAFs.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 THU
UTC 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
EDT 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
Brief IFR conditions in showers and/or storms this weekend.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...30
AVIATION...20