316
FXUS61 KRLX 191731
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1231 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure supports mostly dry into Friday morning. Better
chances of rain arrive late Friday night and continue into
Saturday. A more potent system arrives possibly Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1225 PM Wednesday...

Drier conditions have taken hold across the forecast area, however
it remains rather gloomy, as ample moisture remains trapped beneath
an inversion. This should generally linger for the near term period,
with some improvement in visibility and cloud height this afternoon,
before lowering again tonight. Models indicate the possibility for
periods of drizzle later tonight, but think chances are low owing to
a lack of decent moisture depth. Temperatures overnight will remain
rather mild owing to the cloud cover. Thursday may be a touch warmer
than today, but overall looking at similar conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1225 PM Wednesday...

On Friday, a warm frontal boundary associated with a low pressure
system that develops in response to a shortwave across the southern
U.S. will move into the area, with showers and thunderstorms
developing. This should be yet another good soaking rain across the
region, with high moisture content air streaming into the region,
with PW values progged to be anomalously high for this time of year,
generally 1.2 to 1.3 inches. Threat for severe looks to be rather
low owing to a lack of decent instability/cape. Precipitation will
gradually taper off late Friday into Saturday as shortwave energy
crosses and a front sweeps across the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1225 PM Wednesday...

High pressure will build in for Sunday, possibly lingering into
Monday with a brief break in the weather. Focus then shifts to
Tuesday into Wednesday next week, with indications for a potent low
to develop across the southwest U.S., eventually lifting northeast
towards the area. Strengthening winds associated with this system
will help to draw ample moisture from the Gulf region towards our
CWA, with another soaking rain expected.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1225 PM Wednesday...

Widespread IFR stratus should generally improve to widespread
MVFR with areas/local IFR 20Z through 02-04Z.

After 02-04Z, expect ceilings to lower again to widespread IFR
with local LIFR. Conditions will gradually improve to MVFR after
14Z Thursday.

Light surface winds during the period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Flight restrictions associated with areas
of low stratus may differ in timing and category.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    H    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
Areas of IFR in rain Friday into early Saturday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...SL