941
FXUS61 KRLX 141749
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
149 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Quasi-stationary front located north of the area, and an upper-
level low, approaching from the west will maintain good chances
for showers and thunderstorms through much of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1020 AM Saturday...

Reduced PoPs through early afternoon. While we do ACCAS out
there producing some points of elevated showers at this hour,
not expecting much more than isolated activity through early
afternoon when surface based parcels become uncapped through
daytime heating. Better coverage will come late afternoon into
this evening courtesy of more focused forcing associated with a
weak shortwave embedded in the southern stream - similar to
yesterday`s activity but with a little less coverage.

Storms associated with this forcing should be fairly
progressive and despite fairly high rainfall rates associated
with efficient deep warm cloud depth warm rain process - not
expecting too many water concerns. Any storms that fire away
from the stronger forcing will have a higher potential to sit
over a given spot and backbuild which could lead to isolated
water problems, some potentially locally significant late this
afternoon into tonight before dissipating. At this point, these
concerns on their own wouldn`t justify a flash flood watch over
an area large enough to encompass all potential threat areas,
but may consider lumping this activity in with a flash flood
watch that will likely become necessary with activity associated
with the passage of the upper low on Sunday afternoon/evening.
If we go in this direction, will coordinate headlines and hoist
the product with the afternoon package.

As of 634 AM Saturday...

Previous forecast remains on track.

As of 245 AM Saturday...

Forecast weather charts show a slow moving upper-level trough/low
pressure, rotating as it drifts south over Missouri overnight, then
moving east into the TN/KY valley on Saturday. Meanwhile, a quasi-
stationary frontal boundary remains oriented west to east just north
of our CWA. These two features will interact to each other,
keeping unsettled atmospheric conditions into the beginning of
next week.

The upper-level low/trough will send several shortwaves over our
area providing upper-level support under unstable conditions south
of the frontal boundary. Model parameter evaluation suggests a juicy
atmosphere in place with dewpoints in the upper 60s and theta-e
exceeding 340K. Deep layered shear is very low, and PWATs about 1.5
inches does not look impressive at this time. Therefore, expect
showers and storms, with increasing in coverage and intensity during
the afternoon and evening hours on Saturday. WPC guidance suggests
widespread 0.25 to 0.50 inches of rain expected, with pockets of
0.75 to 1.0 inches mainly across the Tri-state area (OH,KY,WV) by
Saturday evening.

Therefore, not expecting much in terms of severe storms, but locally
heavy downpours will be capable to produce flooding of streets,
creeks, low lying and poor drainage areas. A Flash Flood Watch
may be required for Sunday or Monday.

The upper low positions just west of our CWA Saturday evening,
bringing additional support to enhance convection into Saturday
night.

It will feel muggy again with afternoon temperatures reaching the
low to mid 80s, and dewpoints in the lower 70s. Tonight,
temperatures should drop closer to their dewpoints to produce areas
of dense fog over areas that receive rain during the past 24 hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 150 PM Saturday...

Unsettled weather pattern continues in the short term period.
Frontal boundary will remain draped across the CWA at the start of
the period/early Monday, with a warm and humid air mass in place.
Boundary should slowly lift north during the day Monday, with
periods of showers and storms continuing, particularly during peak
heating hours, and from weak passing disturbances in the flow.
Plenty of instability on Monday could support an isolated severe
storm, but overall threat is low owing to a lack of decent shear.
However, PWATs on the order of 1.7 to upwards of 2 inches, along
with a relatively light steering flow of around 15 kts or less, will
continue to result in a threat for flash flooding, and headlines may
be needed for this time period particularly depending on how much
coverage/rainfall we receive on Sunday.

On Tuesday, a more potent shortwave will lift northeast through the
area. An increase in southerly flow out ahead of the wave will
result in a renewed surge of moisture to the area, with PWATs
possibly topping 2 inches. Storms should overall move a little
better on Tuesday with a slight uptick in steering flow, however,
will continue to need to monitor the situation, especially if Sunday
and Monday result in widespread areas of rainfall.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 150 PM Saturday...

Aforementioned shortwave will lift to the northeast Tuesday night
into Wednesday. However, additional showers and storms can be
expected on Wednesday during peak heating hours in the warm, humid,
unstable conditions. On Thursday, an upper trough, will push east
through the area, with the frontal boundary that has been located to
our north, finally sweeping through the area. A little early to say
for sure, but severe weather may be possible during this period.
Showery weather continues on Friday behind the departing trough.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 634 AM Saturday...

While a quasi-stationary frontal boundary remains oriented west to
east just north of our area, an upper-level trough/low pressure
moves east into the TN/KY valley today. This upper-level feature
will bring several vorticity maxes to our area, providing support
for convection. With a very juicy atmosphere characterized by theta-
e exceeding 340K and dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s, expect
convection to start firing up by mid morning or early afternoon.
Available moisture and the heat will provide a very unstable
environment this afternoon and evening. Expect showers and storms
developing by mid morning across NE KY and SE OH, increasing in
coverage and intensity during the afternoon and evening. As the low
pressure gets closer, additional showers and storms will develop
into tonight.

Starting with widespread VFR conditions, showers and storms capable
to produce heavy downpours may briefly deteriorate visibility to IFR
along their path. Although confidence runs high on having
convection, it is uncertain where these storms will develop first.
Therefore, coded VCTS and PROB30 groups as my best timing estimate
closer to the HRRR and HREF models. In addition, the heavier storms
could produce strong gusty winds, capable to knock trees down.

Calm winds will become light from the southwest today, becoming near
calm later tonight.

Additional showers and storms activity is expected Saturday night as
a series of shortwaves associated with a passing upper level
trough/low cross the area. Periods of IFR/LIFR conditions are
expected under showers and storms. Periods of post rain fog will be
possible Saturday night into Sunday morning.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of deteriorating conditions due to
showers and storms may vary from forecast. Timing of dense fog late
tonight may vary from forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
Brief IFR possible in rounds of showers and thunderstorms
into next week. Locally heavy rain during the afternoons and
evenings could yield patchy overnight dense fog each night.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ/JP
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...ARJ