906
FXUS61 KRLX 031050
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
550 AM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure provides dry weather through most of the work week. A
cold front approaches Friday bringing good chances for showers thru
Friday night. Another cold front crosses during the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 545 AM Monday...

Areas of low stratus and dense fog are advecting from KY, north
into WV this morning. Expect these conditions to affect the
morning commute with visibility lowering under a quarter of a
mile at some places. Dense fog and low stratus will gradually
dissipate or lift by mid morning. Rest of forecast remains on
track.

As of 1230 AM Monday...

A surface high pressure builds over the local region today,
providing dry weather, mostly clear skies and near normal
temperatures through tonight. Highs this afternoon will reach
the upper 50s across the lowlands, ranging into the mid 40s
across the northeast mountains. Lows tonight will generally be
in the 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1230 AM Monday...

The surface high pressure will continue to provide dry weather and
near normal temperatures despite the passing of a few moisture
starved fronts. The first front will cross Monday night, reinforcing
the dry air over the area through Tuesday.

By Wednesday, a low pressure moves over the Great Lakes, with a warm
front and cold front extending south and southwest across the OH
Valley and West Virginia. These fronts may bring chances for
rain showers mainly across the north and northeast portions of
our CWA Wednesday night. General guidance shows only 20 percent
PoPs mainly across the central and northeast mountains with this
system. An uptick in afternoon temperatures is still expected
for Wednesday, with highs reaching the upper 60s across the lowlands,
and ranging into the mid 50s northeast mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1230 AM Monday...

High pressure regains control during the end of the week with
near normal temperatures on Thursday, increasing about 10
degrees above normal by Friday. The increase in temperatures
comes ahead of an approaching cold front from the west.

Another low pressure system over the Great Lakes pushes a warm
front, cold front combo on Friday. This feature brings likely
to categorical PoPs for rain showers Friday and Friday night
into early Saturday morning. Some of these showers may contain
brief heavy downpours.

Yet another low pressure system is expected in our vicinity by the
end of the weekend.

Temperatures will lower after the passage of each cold front during
this period, becoming below normal this weekend, and chilly by
Monday next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 545 AM Monday...

METARs and IR satellite imagery shows IFR/LIFR river dense fog
affecting PKB, HTS, CRW and EKN with FZFG under 29F at the
moment of writing. VFR conditions should prevail at BKW and CKB
through at least 12Z.

In addition to river valley fog, a blanket of low stratus over KY is
evident on satellite imagery screaming north into WV coalfields early
this morning. These clouds may reach HTS first interfering with present
dense fog, perhaps for conditions to become MVFR towards 12Z. Expect
MVFR/IFR ceilings with this dense fog to spread across NE KY and the
southern WV coalfields including BKW through at least 16Z.

Conditions under dense fog or low status will gradually improve
by 16Z over these areas. Then, widespread VFR conditions can be
expected at all terminals at least through midnight. Then, dense
fog may develop once again, mainly along river valleys overnight
tonight into early Tuesday morning.

Calm to light southwest winds will become gusty by 16-17Z.
Winds will become calm at all terminals by 23Z this evening.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent and timing of improvement due to dense fog
may vary from forecast this morning. Timing and extent of dense fog overnight
tonight may vary from forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EST 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    H    L    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    M    M

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...ARJ