988
FXUS61 KRLX 260816
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
416 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Have issued an SPS for areas of dense fog across portions of
the forecast area until 9 AM this morning. Otherwise, the
forecast remains consistent with the prior cycle. A 12Z Aviation
Discussion update was also issued.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1.) Seasonably cool and mainly dry weather persists through the
weekend. A warming trend begins Tuesday, with the next system
arriving towards the end of the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A quiet morning across the area courtesy of surface high
pressure centered across the northern Great Lakes. This has
resulted in mostly clear skies and calm flow, allowing for
chilly temperatures and river valley fog once again southeast of
the Ohio River. Areas of dense fog will be possible in the
`typical` locations, but overall, coverage is expected to be
slightly less than that of yesterday morning. Temperatures this
morning will bottom out in the 40s across the lowlands, with 30s
possible across the mountain valleys. Some patchy frost could
occur across the typical northern mountain valley cold spots,
save the river valleys.

Surface high pressure to the northwest will remain in control of
the weather through the weekend, bringing mostly clear skies
amid seasonably cool temperatures. Highs will generally be ~ 5
degrees below normal, with mid 60s to low 70s across the
lowlands, all amid light northerly breezes during the
afternoons. Lows tomorrow morning will be a few degrees warmer
than this morning, with river valley fog expected east/south. A
retrograding nor`easter could result in isolated light showers
across the far northeast CWA late Sunday or Sunday night, but
any rainfall would remain light, generally 0.10" or less.
Otherwise, dry weather prevails.

A gradual pattern shift begins early next week as a modest upper
ridge begins to shift east over the area. This results in
continued dry weather into Wednesday, if not longer. Low-end
rain chances return late Wednesday onward as a front begins to
approach the region. Timing/placement discrepancies remain
between models resulting in continued low confidence. The
overall theme remains fairly consistent though, with mainly dry
weather continuing through the work week, with a trend towards
more unsettled heading into next weekend as the front works into
the area amid an increasingly moist Gulf airmass. Below normal
temperatures on Monday will transition to near normal on
Tuesday, with slightly above expected Wednesday onward courtesy
of persistent return flow.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
River valley fog has steadily expanded across southwest
Virginia, northeast Kentucky, and West Virginia. VLIFR restrictions
are expected to continue at KCRW and KEKN until after dawn. Fog
will lift / scatter from ~1130-1430Z this morning. Dry
conditions under mainly clear skies then persist through the
remainder of the TAF period (until 12Z Sunday morning). Some river
valley fog will once again develop tonight, with restrictions
expected at KCRW and KEKN. Fog coverage is expected to be less
than this morning.

Light northerly flow is expected during the day today, with
occasional breezes up to 15 kts possible across the lowlands,
while 20-25 kts across the higher terrain. Calm or very light
northwesterly flow is expected tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium with fog, otherwise high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Restrictions with fog this morning and
tonight may vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    SAT 09/26/26
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR conditions are possible in morning river valley fog through
Wednesday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...GW
AVIATION...GW