307
FXUS61 KRLX 312330
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
730 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather opens up the month of September amid high
pressure. Better rain chances arrive around mid-week ahead of a
cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 445 PM Sunday...

Main change this period was to bump up POPs for the mountains
between now and 00z to show a bit broader area of scattered
showers and storms along and near the mountains, given current
conditions and latest hi-res guidance. Still expect things to be
mostly wrapped up by 00z/8pm this evening. Otherwise, did tweak
forecast lows down a bit by blending in the NBM 10th
percentile, given how observed lows have been undercutting the
deterministic NBM on these recent clear and calm nights.


As of 130 PM Sunday...

A pleasant afternoon is underway for most of the forecast area
today under the guise of nearby high pressure. The afternoon
cumulus field that has stretched up the Appalachian mountains
has sprouted a few showers and storms down in the southern
coalfields. This area of activity should trail off quickly this
evening with the loss of diurnal heating, setting up for another
quiet night across the area outside of river valley fog
formation.

The month of September opens up with the continuation of mostly
quiet weather with the support of high pressure parked over the
Great Lakes region. A lack of shortwave energy will yield little
to no chances for precipitation Monday afternoon. Temperatures
will adjust up a degree or two between this afternoon and
Monday, with a few spots in the Tri-State area settling into the
low 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 130 PM Sunday...

After a stretch of dry weather, potential for showers and
storms make their return to the forecast area by the latter half
of the day Tuesday. This will be in response to surface high
pressure becoming nudged eastward ahead of a disturbance
arriving closer to midweek. Low level winds veering out of an
onshore flow position will encourage increased moisture to set
up a warmer, and slightly unstable atmosphere to support a few
afternoon showers and embedded thunderstorms to drift into
eastern Kentucky and southwestern West Virginia before sunset.
This potential grows in earnest on Wednesday as additional
moisture streams into the region amid an encroaching cold front.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 130 PM Sunday...

Pre-frontal southerly flow will continue to usher in moisture
for the start of the forecast period that will aid in showers
and storms first noted during the day on Wednesday. While
coverage will diminish with the loss of daytime heating
Wednesday night, central guidance still holds onto precipitation
chances of around 30 percent during the overnight period. This
potential rises steadily throughout the day Thursday as the cold
front swings through the Ohio Valley. Frontal passage is slated
to take place sometime between Thursday night and Friday
morning, and should be quickly followed by a secondary frontal
boundary for the end of the work week. After the parade of
frontal boundaries, rain chances will clear out for the start of
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 730 PM Sunday...

We continue our game of "Where and when will it fog tonight?",
and given similar conditions to last night, we held with the 18z
forecast thinking of a repeat of last night. Several hours of
dense fog before and just after dawn are expected at EKN, with
a shorter period at CRW, possibly just briefly around dawn as
the fog lifts out of the Elk River valley and affects the
airfield. For now, we are not forecasting fog to impact any
other TAF sites, as gradient winds may keep things mixed just
enough, but will need to watch if the others besides BKW can
fully decouple. Otherwise, should be VFR conditions through the
period with calm or light winds.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing or extent of valley fog later
tonight may vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 MON
UTC 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
EDT 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IFR conditions possible in heavier showers and storms within an
encroaching cold front starting midweek.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A record low temperature of 46 degrees was set at Parkersburg,
WV today. This breaks the old record of 49 degrees set in 1929
and also tied in 1935 and 1976.

Over the last five days, Parkersburg has set or tied a record
on four of the five days (set two and tied two).

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEK/FK
NEAR TERM...MEK/FK
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...FK

CLIMATE...MEK/GW