616
FXUS61 KRLX 022352
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
752 PM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure prevails for the most part of today. A shortwave
enhances afternoon convection across the extreme south through
this evening. Better chances for precipitation arrives with cold
fronts crossing Thursday and Friday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 755 PM Tuesday...

Updated temperatures and dew points this evening to reflect
current observations around the area. Much drier air today kept
dew points down in the 40s this afternoon and evening, so
adjusted down accordingly. Otherwise, rest of the forecast
remains on track.

As of 145 PM Tuesday...

Introduced isolated showers and storms across the extreme
southern WV, NE KY and extreme SW VA this afternoon. Radar
imagery shows popcorn-like convection firing across eastern KY
at the moment of writing. Expect some of this activity to move
over our area into this evening.

Weather charts show a surface high pressure across the eastern two
thirds of the nation, while an upper-level trough/low pressure
system extends from the Great Lakes south into the OH Valley and WV.

While the dry high pressure acts as a suppressing factor for
precipitation, a weak H500 shortwave may combine with afternoon
heating to destabilize the atmosphere, allowing for weak
isolated convection through this afternoon. Models show an H500
vorticity maxima moving across southern WV, SW VA and NE KY this
evening. This feature may bring clouds and low chances for
precipitation this evening over these places into the overnight
hours.

Yet, a stronger H500 shortwave moves in Wednesday afternoon. Limited
moisture, as seen with PWATs around 1.3 inches, may not be enough to
sustain widespread precipitation. Therefore, allowed chance PoPs for
showers and storms developing Wednesday afternoon. Any convection
will not survive sunset.

Near normal temperatures are expected through the period, generally
in the mid to upper 50s across the lowlands, ranging into the mid
40s northeast mountains. Highs on Wednesday will range from the
lower 80s lowlands, ranging into the lower 60s northeast mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 145 PM Tuesday...

By Wednesday night, H850 flow increases from the southwest at 25-30
knots. This flow will inject adequate moisture to sustain widespread
precipitation ahead of an approaching cold front.

The environment ahead of the cold front will be characterized by
SBCAPE exceeding 2200 J/kg, deep layered shear 40-50 knots,
helicities exceeding 100 m2/s2, and PWATs around 1.5 inches.
Although moisture does not look impressive, strong and
organized convection may develop Thursday afternoon and evening.

Guidance suggests very little in expected beneficial rainfall for
Wednesday. However, widespread 0.5 to 0.75 inches of rain can be
expected with the cold front on Thursday. This should be easily
managed hydrologically given the antecedent rather dry conditions
although a localized/isolated water issue is not out of the
question. WPC has the area highlighted with a Marginal Risk for
Excessive rainfall. Dense fog and low stratus is expected to
develop in the wake of rainfall Thursday night into Friday
morning.

The cold front exits east by Friday morning, allowing a brief high
pressure to build providing a mostly dry day. A reinforcing but
relatively dry cold front crosses Friday night and Saturday
taking temperatures down again to slightly below normal.

Temperatures should stay slightly below normal for this time of the
year on Thursday given widespread cloud cover and shower and
thunderstorm coverage associated with the cold front. For Friday,
strong southwest flow at H850 increases to near 40 knots pumping
warm and moisture advection to the area. This will warm up highs
closer to normal, generally in the lower to mid 80s across the
lowlands, ranging into the upper 60s northeast mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 145 PM Tuesday...

A broad surface high pressure builds in behind the second front
to provide dry weather conditions for the end of the weekend
and the beginning of next week.

Therefore, expect dry and cool weather to finish out the
weekend, followed by temperatures beginning to moderate during
the early portion of the following work week, amid continued
dry, benign weather, as the surface high begins to move out.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 755 PM Tuesday...

Anvil blow off pressing into the southwest portions of our
airspace comes as the result of afternoon storm activity that
flourished over Kentucky. Radar trends show convection is
gradually trailing off with the loss of daytime heating, and
will continue to pose no concern at our TAF sites. Clouds will
continue to stream across our southern zones tonight, while
river valley fog will return to EKN overnight into Wednesday
morning. All other terminals should see no restrictions
overnight.

An advancing disturbance may allow for showers and storms to
sneak back into our area on Wednesday after a multi-day stretch
of dry weather. Mid-level clouds will smear overhead throughout
the day, with isolated activity possible in the afternoon and
early evening before once again fading out around sunset.

Winds will be relatively light out of the west to southwest
throughout the valid TAF period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of fog at EKN
overnight tonight may vary, and fluctuate more widely than
indicated.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            WED 09/03/25
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    M    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR conditions possible in heavier showers and storms within an
encroaching cold front Thursday. IFR possible in fog and stratus
early Friday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ
NEAR TERM...ARJ/MEK
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...MEK