044
FXUS61 KRLX 190714
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
314 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and storms weaken overnight into early morning. Strong
cold front crosses east this afternoon increasing the potential
for severe weather. Drier Friday into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 225 AM Thursday...

A cold front will cross the area from west to east this
afternoon and evening. Ahead of the front, very humid airmass
and unstable conditions will promote heavy showers and
thunderstorms. Latest CAMs suggest showers and storms firing up
along and east of the OH River as early as 9-10 AM Thursday
morning.

The front arrives at the peak afternoon heating hours. With deep
layered shear up to 40 knots, expect these showers to move faster
than previous days, enough to prevent flash flooding. However, some
soils are already saturated and training of cells may produce
flooding problems. WPC highlights northern WV under a Slight risk
for excessive rainfall, while the rest of the area remains
under marginal risk. In addition, some storms could be strong to
severe with damaging winds being the main threat.

The cold front exits this evening with lingering rain showers ending
over the eastern mountains tonight. A surface high pressure builds
behind the front to provide drier weather conditions tonight. Areas
of dense fog may develop overnight under clear skies and near calm
flow, mainly over areas that received rainfall, and over areas
where the lower atmosphere manages to decouple.

Abundant cloudiness and cooling showers will keep afternoon
temperatures into the lower 80s across the lowlands, ranging into
the upper 60s higher elevations. Fresher airmass behind the front
will provide near normal lows tonight, generally in the upper 50s
across the lowlands, ranging into the lower 50s northeast mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 310 AM Thursday...

Key Points:
* Drier as high pressure builds late this week.
* Temperatures become hotter this weekend.

Quieter weather finally returns as high pressure and an upper
level ridge build into the area behind the front on Friday. Drier
conditions then persist as upper ridging slides north and east,
becoming centered over the middle Ohio Valley this weekend.

The work week closes out on a seasonably warm note, then
temperatures become hot this weekend. Highs on Saturday are expected
to range from mid 70s to upper 80s over the higher terrain, and
upper 80s to low 90s in the lowlands.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 310 AM Thursday...

Key Points:
* A heat wave is expected from Sunday through mid week.
* Afternoon showers and storms possible towards mid week.

An upper level ridge of high pressure remains centered directly
overhead through the weekend and into the first part of the work
week. Temperatures are expected to trend hotter beneath this ridge,
with enough humidity present to propel heat indices into the triple
digits across much of the lowlands each afternoon. The heat is
likely to impact heat-sensitive individuals, as well as anyone
exposed to the sun for longer periods of time.

A west to east oriented front sprawls across the Great Lakes and
northeastern states while ridging persists over the CWA through mid
week; however, moisture transported into the area may allow
isolated afternoon showers and storms to reemerge Tuesday or
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 145 AM Thursday...

Radar imagery shows a decaying convective line to affect CRW,
CKB, EKN and BKW in the beginning of the period. The further
east, the weaker storms may be. Behind this line, scattered to
numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible,
although most convection should be wining down during the
overnight hours.

VFR conditions will prevail outside showers and storms. Brief
periods of IFR visibility will be possible under heavier showers or
storms. Gusty winds up to 20 knots will accompany the heavier
storms.

Guidance suggests additional showers and thunderstorms will develop
along and east of the OH River late Thursday morning, in response of
a crossing cold front. Periods of IFR conditions under moderate to
heavy downpours will be possible.

Winds will be light S-SW to calm overnight, but breezy and gusty
nearby showers or storms. Winds should pick up a little behind the
cold front, preventing dense fog from forming. Continued with a
short period of LLWS as NBM guidance suggests.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of showers/storms
tonight may vary from forecast. Fog ends up forming when not
forecasted.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              THU 06/19/25
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    M    M    M    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    M    H    H    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
Brief IFR possible in rounds of showers and thunderstorms
overnight and Thursday. Locally heavy rain Thursday afternoon
could yield patchy fog or low stratus overnight into Friday
morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/20
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM...20
AVIATION...ARJ