599
FXUS61 KRLX 181731
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1231 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Periods of rain will continue through tonight. Low chances for
rain showers Wednesday and Thursday. Better chances of
precipitation arrive late Friday night into Saturday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1230 PM Tuesday...

Strong (H500) mid level disturbance crosses the area west to east,
spreading showers and few storms this afternoon and evening. This
system will provide synoptic lift under abundant moisture with PWATs
about 1.25 inches (+2sd from climatology). With deep layered shear
about 55 knots, and helicity exceeding 400 m2/s2, SPC maintains
the area highlighted under a marginal risk for severe
thunderstorms. However, SBCAPE is limited, with MUCAPE under 400
J/kg by this afternoon. The main threat may be occasional
lightning and brief damaging wind gusts. Latest CAMs guidance
shows few lines of convection developing across the Tri- state
area (OH/KY/WV) by late afternoon and evening. Lingering showers
may gradually exit east of the Appalachians by midnight. About
1 inch of rain accumulation can be expected with this system
through early Wednesday morning.

Areas of fog and widespread low status clouds most likely develop
behind the system overnight tonight, continuing with low stratus on
Wednesday.

Tonight`s temperatures will be not as chilly as last night,
generally in the mid to upper 40s across the southern coalfields,
ranging into the 30s northeast mountains and northern SE Ohio.
Wednesday afternoon will see about 5 degrees warmer than normal,
generally in the mid to upper 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1230 PM Tuesday...

Relatively dry Wednesday night and Thursday as a nearly stationary
frontal boundary meanders over the area under a zonal flow aloft.
Just a 20-25% PoP was coded. A slow warming trend is expected during
this period with highs about 10 degrees warmer than normal by
Thursday.

Chances for rain arrive Thursday night ahead of the next southern
stream upper level disturbance passes by. Guidance suggests likely
(60-70% PoPs) chances for rain Thursday night into Friday, becoming
categorical (80-90% PoPs) as the system cross over Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1230 PM Tuesday...

Precipitation gradually exits east of the Appalachians Saturday
night into Sunday, providing drier conditions during the first half
of the new working week.

General guidance suggests high pressure building over the area by
Sunday with a couple of dry cold fronts, reinforcing dry conditions
through the middle of next week.

Afternoon temperatures will remain slightly above normal for this
time of the year, generally in the lower 60s across the lowlands,
ranging into the mid 40s northeast mountains. Lows will be in
the chilly side, expecting mostly clear nights.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1230 PM Tuesday...

Periods of rain and rain showers will continue this afternoon
and tonight, as an H500 shortwave crosses the area from west to
east. Ceilings may become MVFR under this afternoon under
periods of rain, then deteriorating to IFR under low status starting
around midnight, and lasting through Wednesday morning. Terminals
most likely to be affected by dense fog and low stratus will be
BKW, CRW, HTS, PKB and EKN.

Winds will be on the light and variable today, becoming with a
northerly component on Wednesday.  through the day with a
southeasterly component to it. Southwest winds aloft increase to
45 knots this evening, prompting the code of LLWS at HTS, CRW
and BKW from 00Z to 06Z.

MVFR/IFR is expected to prevail Wednesday morning under low
stratus lagging behind the shortwave.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR conditions possible in any heavier
showers this afternoon and evening. Timing of IFR/LIFR
conditions under dense fog and low stratus overnight into
Wednesday morning may vary.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
EST 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    L    M    M    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    L    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    M    H    H    L    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    M    H    H    M    H    M    L    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    M    M    H    H    M    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR possible Thursday morning under dense fog.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...ARJ