852
FXUS61 KRLX 300527
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1227 AM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A system tonight into Sunday is likely to start as a wintry
mix, at least in the mountains. More wintry weather is possible
Monday night into Tuesday in an active and chilly pattern.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1220 AM Sunday...

A cold front will push across the region this morning. Some
precipitation is possible along and ahead of the front. There is
a possibility that a wintry mix could occur with the initial
precipitation before becoming rain west of the mountains, but
impacts are not expected as temperatures are currently in the
upper 30s to lower 40s. Along the eastern slopes of West
Virginia however, cold air damming is keeping temperatures at
or below freezing and low dewpoints will aid is some evaporative
cooling. Therefore, the eastern slopes could see a wintry mix
of precipitation, including freezing rain. Will continue the
Winter Weather Advisory in this area.

Some very minor upslope snow is a possibility late today into Sunday
into Sunday night behind the system.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1220 AM Sunday...

A high pressure system will briefly build in for Monday.

Another system will effect the area Monday night into Tuesday.
Models have the surface low from this system tracking south of
the region. Models agree on a warm wedge developing, although
there are some disagreements on the strength and size of the
warm wedge. Even so, initial precipitation Monday night could be
a wintry mix. Areas such as southeast Ohio and the eastern
slopes of the West Virginia mountains have the best chance at
significant winter weather. This is another system that
definitely bears monitoring.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1225 AM Sunday...

Brief high pressure will build across the area for Wednesday.

Models then show a moisture starved cold front moving through on
Thursday.

Another system will effect the region for Friday into Saturday,
but models disagree on the details, including how much cold air
will be in place as the system approaches. This leads to low
confidence in the forecast for Friday and Saturday, but keep in
mind this system once again has the possibility of a wintry mix.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1220 AM Sunday...

A cold front will push across the region this morning. Some
precipitation is possible along and ahead of the front. There is
a possibility that a wintry mix could occur with the initial
precipitation before becoming rain west of the mountains, while
the eastern slopes of West Virginia could see more significant
wintry precipitation, including freezing rain. Ceilings will be
lowering this morning, becoming MVFR at most locations with some
IFR in the mountains. Conditions will improve some this
afternoon and evening, with MVFR across central Ohio and
northern/eastern West Virginia, and VFR further south.

A strong low level jet can be expected this morning. Some LLWS
is possible, most likely along the eastern slopes of West
Virginia.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Lower probabilities of precipitation have
not been put into the TAFs, but some precipitation could occur.
Timing of lowering clouds could vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                        SUN 11/30/25
UTC 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
EST 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR conditions possible in rain and/or snow Monday night into
Tuesday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST Sunday for WVZ516-518-
     520-522>524-526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RPY
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...RPY