564
FXUS61 KRLX 141015
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
615 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Daily chances for mainly diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms continue through the week as a warm and moist
airmass remains in place.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Monday...

Key Point:
* Showers and storms increase in coverage during the day today.
* Heavy rainfall could lead to localized instances of flooding.

Precipitation coverage has been decreasing early this morning while
areas of fog are beginning to form. Confidence in the extent of fog
is not high as clouds and light flow could impede development.
Whatever fog does form will gradually dissipate after daybreak.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage again
during the day as a shortwave trough passes overhead and a front
stalls to the west of the Ohio River. In the warm, moist, and
unstable environment, precipitable water values are projected to
surge towards the two inch mark. This suggests storms will be very
efficient rain producers which could cause some flooding issues in
poor drainage areas or locations impacted by multiple cells.

Areas of fog will once again be possible as precipitation coverage
tapers off and skies begin to clear overnight.

High temperatures should reach 80s in the lowlands and mid 70s to
80s in the mountains today, then overnight lows are expected to
range from 60 to 70 degrees across the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Monday...

Key Points:
* Hot, humid, and unsettled.
* Risk of localized flooding persists.

A front remains stalled just northwest of the forecast area through
Tuesday, then the boundary should be lifted to the north as a warm
front due to a low exiting the central US and heading towards the
Great Lakes.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to occur each day,
with precipitation chances peaking during the afternoon and
evening hours. With continued potential for heavy downpours over
increasingly saturated soils, marginal to slight excessive
rainfall risks have been painted across portions of the area.

Heat and humidity are expected to increase towards mid week, with
apparent temperatures possibly approaching upper 90s to triple
digits.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 330 AM Monday...

Key Point:
* Remaining unsettled into the weekend.

Unsettled weather continues as a front approaches from the northwest
and then sinks down into the area late in the week. An incoming system
is expected to pull the front back to the north where it may
then stall early next week. Heat and humidity may make it feel
very hot again on Thursday, then temperatures should moderate
for the end of the week thanks to the arrival of the front.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 615 AM Monday...

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop across the
area as a disturbance passes overhead and a front stalls to the
northwest today. Heavy downpours are likely to result in
periodic MVFR to IFR flight conditions during the day, then
activity tapers off tonight. Areas of fog may then form as winds
calm and skies start to clear overnight. IFR or worse CIGs/VIS
will be possible wherever fog does form.

Light southwest to westerly winds are expected during the day,
with occasionally stronger gusts possible within storms. Winds
then become calm to light and variable again for tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent and intensity of rain and storms
today, and fog tonight, may vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    MON 07/14/25
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    H    M    M    M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    L    H    H    H    L    L    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
Brief periods of IFR conditions possible under showers and
thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours.
IFR river valley fog is also possible overnight.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...20
NEAR TERM...20
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM...20
AVIATION...20