144
FXUS61 KRLX 080610
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
210 AM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure maintains control through much of the week,
yielding a stretch of dry weather amid gradually warming
temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 200 AM Monday...

River valley fog has already been forming and should continue
to expand in coverage early this morning. Fog will then erode
from the area after sunrise.

High pressure in control at the surface will sustain quiet weather
across the forecast area both today and tonight. With rather dry air
in place, relative humidity values are likely to fall into the 30s
across much of the area this afternoon. Fortunately, the absence of
strong winds should preclude fire weather concerns. Temperatures
should remain a few degrees shy of normal with highs in the 60s
for the higher elevations of the northeast mountains and 70s
for the rest of the forecast area.

Clear and cool conditions are expected for tonight, though light
flow should help to confine fog to some of the deeper valleys.
Meanwhile, low temperatures are forecast to fall into the 40s
to low 50s, with some mid to upper 30s possible in the northeast
mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 AM Monday...

While one system brushes past the Great Lakes and another
meanders up the Atlantic Coast, surface high pressure sustains
a stretch of dry weather across the Middle Ohio Valley and
Central Appalachians through the middle of the work week.
During this time, temperatures gradually moderate towards
normal with highs likely returning to mid 60s to 70s for the
higher terrain and upper 70s to mid 80s within the lowlands.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 AM Monday...

A weak disturbance may pass over the area on Thursday bringing
increased cloud cover but little in the way of precipitation.
Drier weather then continues through the end of the week as an
approaching front washes out prior to reaching the area.

Although the majority of the area should remain dry through
Sunday, moisture may begin to increase as another system
approaches the area early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 120 AM Monday...

River valley fog is currently forming under mostly clear skies
and calm winds, and will continue to expand in coverage before
dawn. Fog is expected to produce IFR to LIFR conditions at most
terminals this morning while VFR persists outside of fog.

Conditions will improve once fog dissipates between 12Z and
14Z, then areawide VFR takes hold for the remainder of the day
despite the development of a cumulus field in the afternoon.
Northeast winds should remain light throughout the day.

After 00Z, another clear night is expected; however, light
winds should help limit fog development to some of the deeper,
more sheltered valleys early Tuesday morning.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium for fog tonight. Otherwise, high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Restrictions associated with valley fog
late tonight/Monday morning may vary from forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   MON 09/08/25
UTC 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
EDT 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    M    M    L    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR valley fog in deeper/favored mountain valleys Tuesday
morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...20
NEAR TERM...20
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM...20
AVIATION...20