941
FXUS61 KRLX 140357
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1157 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Convection will decrease in coverage and intensity overnight tonight.
Conditions will remain unsettled Saturday through much of next
week as a quasi-stationary frontal boundary lingers in the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1150 PM Friday...

Most showers and storms activity have moved towards our eastern
mountains, with the stronger cluster of storms moving into our
northeast mountains at the time of writing. Cut PoPs considerably
across the south and west portions of the area. Kept likely PoP
with thunderstorms with a cluster moving towards our northeast
mountains. Radar imagery shows a decrease in activity from west
to east. Without any evident shortwave aloft, expect conditions
to improve in terms of precipitation through 8 AM Saturday.

As of 1040 PM Friday...

The forecast remains on track.

As of 715 PM Friday...

As activity spreads into the CWA most shower activity is
behaving to where no hydro issues are occurring. Some stronger
convection has taken place across our Kentucky zone, but for
the most part most cells are up and down fairly quickly and
leaving nothing in the wake but some gusty wind. Other than
tweaking temperatures and PoPs using the latest guidance, the
forecast remains on track and no additional changes were needed
at this time.

As of 130 PM Friday...

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop in a hot and humid airmass this afternoon. Mid-level lapse
rates are modest at best, generally 5.5 to 6C/km and typical moist
bias of models running on the WRF core has yielded a slight
overestimation of available MLCAPE. Still, should be able to realize
1000-1500J/kg this afternoon amidst modest deep layer shear of 20-
25KTs would could yield an isolated stronger core. Wet bulb zeros
are in excess of 14kft, so not expected much of a hail threat, but
some isolated instances of damaging wind gusts, especially with any
core drops would be possible with any initial convection with
surface to 3km lapse rates being relatively steep amid good mixing.

The brunt of precipitation is expected to move through the region
during the late overnight into early Saturday with the approach of a
mid-level wave. These storms would be rooted aloft with a minimal
threat of both hail and winds. Warm cloud depths will be quite deep,
so some very efficient rainfall production will be possible,
although the dwell time over any individual spot will be fairly
short. Given recent dry conditions, not expecting any initial water
concerns unless a heavy downpour happens to get over an area of very
poor drainage. The more likely impact is to precondition soils for
potential water issues farther down the line as we remain in an
active pattern.

Diurnally driven isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
will be possible again Saturday amidst continuing hot and humid
conditions. Think the moist bias of the WRF cores is probably
showing mixed layer instability a bit too high again Saturday, but
would expect to realize similar values of afternoon instability
Saturday afternoon. Shear remains modest, so not expecting severe
weather, but a couple stronger cores could produce some locally
gusty winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1230 PM Friday...

Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms can be expected
Sunday as a stalled frontal boundary sits across central West
Virginia and weak vorticity aloft provides additional uplift along
the boundary. Very weak shear should generally prevent severe
weather from occurring, but heavy downpours and flash flooding
will be a concern with very high moisture across the region.
Models are suggesting PWAT values will be upwards of 2 inches
Sunday afternoon. Monday will bring more of the same type of
weather with a stalled boundary and very high moisture content
at the surface. Flash flooding will again be a concern if heavy
downpours repeatedly move over the same areas.

Temperatures will be near normal both Sunday and Monday with
temperatures generally in the upper 70s in the mountains to the
lower 80s in the lowlands.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1230 PM Friday...

Unsettled weather will continue through the long term period. The
aforementioned stalled boundary will lift to the north Tuesday.
Showers and thunderstorms won`t be quite as widespread Tuesday and
Wednesday, but scattered, diurnally driven storms still remain
possible each afternoon. More breaks in the clouds each day and a
more efficient southerly flow in the warm sector should allow
temperatures to reach the middle to upper 80s by midweek.

The forecast becomes a bit more uncertain by Thursday, but a few
models are forecasting a strong area of low pressure and an
associated cold front will cross from the west either Thursday or
Friday. Depending on the timing of the front, strong thunderstorms
cannot be ruled out ahead of it Thursday afternoon and evening. This
forecast will be fine tuned over the upcoming week.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 730 PM Friday...

With weak southwesterly flow across the area the main theme for
this period will be shower and thunderstorm activity into late
tonight. Thereafter, thunderstorm potential will fall to a
minimum so left mention out of TAFs for the overnight hours.
CIGs will progressively lower in height, but only MVFR is
expected until the late morning when they lift back to VFR.
Some IFR CIGs could get into CKB/PKB since they are close to
the frontal boundary, but otherwise the rest of the sites
should stay away from IFR. More activity will pick up with
greater chances for showers and storms tomorrow afternoon when
it is forecast to be more active.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of thunderstorms and associated
restrictions may vary from forecast. Fog could develop
overnight tonight into Saturday morning over areas that receive
rain.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             SAT 06/14/25
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    L    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    M    H    M    M    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
Brief IFR possible in rounds of showers and thunderstorms
into next week. Locally heavy rain during the afternoons and
evenings could yield patchy overnight dense fog each night.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/JMC
NEAR TERM...ARJ/JP/JZ
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JZ