482
FXUS61 KRLX 150732
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
332 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Daily chances for mainly diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms continue as a warm and moist airmass remains in
place this week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Tuesday...

Key Points:
* Another day of scattered showers and storms is ahead.
* Best precipitation chances will be this afternoon and evening.
* Heavy rainfall could lead to localized instances of flooding.

Locally dense fog has formed in the valleys and areas that received
rain yesterday, thus an SPS has been issued for the entirety of the
forecast area this morning. Fog will erode from the area
shortly after sunrise.

The forecast area will continue to reside within a warm, moist, and
unstable environment while a stationary front remains sprawled
across Ohio and northern West Virginia. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are mainly expected to sprout up to the south of the
front today, with greatest precipitation chances spanning southern
and eastern portions of the CWA during the afternoon and evening.

Heavy rain will again be possible within storms which could again
prompt some localized high water issues. Much of the area remains
within a marginal risk of excessive rainfall for today, though a
slight risk does graze the northeast mountains.

Precipitation coverage should once again lessen overnight. Areas of
fog could also form, though confidence in extent is low and will
depend on how much skies clear during the night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Tuesday...

Key Point:
* Daily chances of rain, storms and localized flooding persist.

Unsettled weather pattern persists through the middle of the week,
with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms expected to peak
each afternoon and evening. Soils should gradually become saturated
by several consecutive days of locally heavy rain; therefore,
marginal excessive rainfall risks cover the whole forecast area both
Wednesday and Thursday.

Heat and humidity could buoy apparent temperatures into the upper
90s to low 100s in the lowlands Wednesday and Thursday afternoons;
however, confidence on reaching advisory criteria is somewhat
lessened by the potential for afternoon precipitation.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 330 AM Tuesday...

Key Point:
* Remaining unsettled through the weekend and into next week.

A front approaches from the northwest and then sinks down into the
area late week into the weekend. There is some question as to how
far south the front will make it before a low pressure system pulls
it back to the north as a warm front. This system then drags another
front towards the area as it decamps from the northeastern US early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 125 PM Monday...

IFR/LIFR ceilings and visibilities are expected for most
terminals as fog continues to develop early this morning.
Flight conditions will then improve to VFR after fog dissipates
shortly after sunrise.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to sprout up
across portions of the area this afternoon, potentially leading
to brief CIG/VIS restrictions in any heavier rain. Activity
should lessen Tuesday night. Some patches of fog could be
possible late in the TAF period, though extent will depend on
how much clearing occurs.

Flow remains calm into the morning, then light and variable
winds are expected through the day. Occasional gusts could
occur in storms this afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, location, and intensity of
overnight fog and afternoon showers/storms may vary from
forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              TUE 07/15/25
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    M    M    M    M    L    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
Brief periods of IFR conditions possible under showers and
thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours.
IFR or worse fog is also possible overnight.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...20
NEAR TERM...20
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM...20
AVIATION...20