525
FXUS61 KRLX 070605
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
205 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak but moisture-laden disturbance from the south, and then
a cold front from the northwest, bring beneficial rain showers
today into Wednesday. Dry and cooler to round out the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 205 AM Tuesday...

Forecast on track, with showers slowly approaching the Ohio
River. The QPF is a bit lower than previous but, more
importantly, the axis of heavier rainfall totals still resides
over the Kanawha Valley. However, there is still considerable
spread among the models.

As of 130 PM Monday...

A strong high pressure system drifts east off the Atlantic
coast through tonight, losing its influence over the local area.
This will allow for a cold front to approach from the west
Tuesday. Boundary layer winds increase from the southwest to
20-30 knots pumping moisture in ahead of the front with PWATs
around 2.0 inches and surface dewpoints in the upper 60s by
Tuesday. Bufkit soundings show the column saturating from the
top down. Models suggest limited bouyancy with this front.
Plenty of deep layered shear, BL convergence and Storm Relative
Helicity may be enough to sustain showers mixed with
stratiformed rain on Tuesday. Thunderstorms may develop during
the afternoon aided by diurnal heating. With no severe weather
risk highlighted by the Storm Prediction Center, the primary
threat with any thunderstorms will be heavy downpours, which
will exacerbate the excessive rainfall threat. Some gusty winds
are also possible with the strongest cells.

WPC and other guidance support rainfall accumulations of widespread
1 inches across West Virginia, with up to 2 inches across the
Tri-state area (OH/WV/KY). WPC maintains a Slight Risk for excessive
rainfall with this event. Recent dry days have increase Flash
Flood Guidance to about 2.5 inches in three hours. Guidance
suggests 70 percent probability of exceeding 2 inches of rain
across the Tri-state area by Tuesday evening. Although most of
the rain should be absorbed by dry soils, localized water
issues may occur over areas of poor drainage and low-lying
areas. Much of the rainfall will actually be beneficial, helping
to squash drought conditions festering in and near the Central
Appalachians.

The cold front is expected to cross Tuesday night, exiting east of
the Appalachians by early Wednesday morning.

Increasing dewpoint around 60F to the west and lower 50s
northeast mountains will make a relatively pleasant night, with
temperatures reaching the mid 60s lowlands, ranging into the
lower 50s northeast mountains. Abundant cloud cover and cooling
showers will keep afternoon temperatures into the mid 70s
lowlands, ranging into the lower 60s northeast mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 PM Monday...

By Wednesday morning, the cold front will have moved east of the
Appalachians, ushering in a much cooler and drier airmass. Lingering
light showers will be common early Wednesday before dissipating by
Wednesday afternoon or evening.

A new high pressure builds over the Great Lakes on Wednesday,
providing dry and breezy conditions with clear skies spreading
from northwest to southeast, and prevailing through the
weekend.

This new airmass will be noticeably cooler through next weekend,
bringing temperatures to near normal, generally in the lower 70s
across the lowlands, ranging into the mid 50s northeast mountains.
Tuesday night will still relatively mild, with dewpoints in the
upper to mid 50s. However, behind the front, cooler airmass will
drop temperatures to near normal, ranging from the low to mid 40s
across the lowlands, to the low to mid 30s northeast mountains.
Patchy frost has been introduced to the northeast mountains in
Pocahontas and Randolph counties.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 130 PM Monday...

The dry extended period continues during the beginning of next
week courtesy of a high pressure at the surface and aloft. The
exception will be moisture associated with a Tropical system
anticipated to move inland across the Carolinas or Virginia
Sunday night or Monday. This feature could bring low level
moisture and associated light rain showers to the Appalachians
by Sunday night, but confidence whether this rain activity
should reach our local area is in question. Otherwise, the
autumnal weather pattern and extended period of dry and cool
weather will continue.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 205 AM Tuesday...

An approaching moisture-laden mid level disturbance from the
Gulf will keep conditions VFR early this morning, in that
clouds and 20 to 25 kts of low level south to southwest flow
associated with it will prevent fog formation. However, rain
approaching the Ohio River early this morning will spread east
across the area this morning, with widespread MVFR developing
across the middle Ohio Valley this morning and then elsewhere
this afternoon, when widespread MVFR ceilings also develop.

Heavier showers could decrease visibility to IFR at times, but
the prevailing conditions should be MVFR or better
predominately through the daytime and going into tonight.

A cold front approaching from the northwest will help to keep
the rain showers going tonight, with visibility lowering to IFR
in rain at times. IFR ceilings are likely to make it to PKB
tonight, and perhaps CKB toward the end of the TAF period late
tonight, 06Z Wednesday.

Light south to southeast surface flow early this morning will
become light southwest later this morning, and can strengthen
and become a bit gusty at times this afternoon. The cold front
could reach the Ohio River by 06Z Wednesday, with a wind shift
to northwest at PKB and HTS. The light south to southwest flow
aloft early this morning will become moderate southwest late
this morning, and then diminish a bit ahead of the cold front
aloft tonight, with a wind shift to northwest reaching the Ohio
River toward 06Z Wednesday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of deteriorating conditions in rain today
may vary from forecast, and then conditions in rain are likely
to fluctuate through tonight. Lower ceilings under stratus may
make it farther south and east than forecast by late tonight.
While confidence in occurrence and timing was too low for
inclusion in the TAFs, thunderstorms are possible late this
morning through tonight. Lightning and heavier downpours will be
the main impacts of any thunderstorms.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             TUE 10/07/25
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR is possible in rain, fog and stratus overnight tonight into
Wednesday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM/ARJ
NEAR TERM...TRM/ARJ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...TRM