593
FXUS61 KRLX 250740
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
240 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Widespread rain today, with showers continuing Wednesday. Strong
cold front on Wednesday brings gusty winds and much colder
conditions for Thanksgiving into the start of the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 115 AM Tuesday...

Plenty of returns have been showing up on radar so far tonight,
but it appears that little to none of it is reaching the ground
as much of the cloud cover remains more in the mid-levels, with
areas of lower clouds. However, that will be changing over the
next few hours as rain currently moving into central and
southeastern KY works its way over here. We can expect a wet
morning into the first part of the afternoon across the area.
Later this afternoon into the evening the stratiform rain may
start shifting towards a showery nature as the initial southern
stream disturbance lifts away to the northeast but leaves a
boundary or weak cold front slowly moving east across the CWA.

We do throw in a slight chance for a rumble of thunder for this
evening and early overnight, as some guidance is offering just
a hint of CAPE in the warm sector. However, the chances are
quite low and will diminish heading towards and after midnight,
as a warm nose strengthening around 700mb will then keep any
lingering CAPE below the freezing level, ending the potential
for thunder.

Breezes from the southeast and south will gradually strengthen
through the day, with gusts of 15-25 mph common late morning
through the afternoon. Those winds will pump warm air into the
CWA, with forecast highs in the upper 50s to mid-60s at lower
elevations, and upper 40s to 50s in the higher terrain,
generally 5-10 degrees warmer than normal. Winds diminish a bit
and turn more SW`ly overnight as a potent cold front approaches
from the west, but the breezy conditions will keep it relatively
mild ahead of the front, with lows in the 40s to low 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 140 AM Tuesday...

There is a bit of discrepancy among the guidance on the timing
of when the cold front will reach the western border of the CWA,
but only by a few hours. Current thinking is that it will start
to push into the CWA relatively soon after 12z/7am Wed, and in
any event no later than 15z/10am. As a result, temperatures are
unlikely to budge much if at all before the front pushes
through, and further to the east across our WV and VA zones,
only a bit of bump in temps is expected before the front barrels
through the area. And barrel through it will, as the boundary is
expected to be through most if not all of the CWA by early in
the afternoon.

Rain shower activity will persist ahead of and with the front
in the morning, but should cut off during the afternoon once the
front has passed and dry air starts to work into the area. As a
result, the chance for rain changing to snow appears pretty
limited at this time, but should any showers linger in the
northern mountains into Wednesday evening, a bit of snow is
possible.

Strong, gusty W`ly winds will accompany and follow the front,
with gusts of 25-35mph common in the lowlands once the front
passes a location and persisting through the afternoon, with
higher gusts possible in the mountains. Models tend to
underforecast potential gusts with strong fronts like this, so
we coordinated with neighbors to boost the gusts a bit over what
the deterministic NBM shows. The gusts will diminish somewhat
in the lowlands during the evening and overnight hours, but
are expected to increase further in the mountains as strong W`ly
winds descend closer 850mb, making them much easier to mix down
to the ridges. Both the HREF and the probabilistic NBM show
well over 50% chance for wind gusts exceeding the 40kts advisory
criteria Wednesday night into Thursday morning, but
probabilities of getting gusts over the 50kt warning threshold
are much lower. As a result, would expect needing a Wind
Advisory for the mountain zones Wednesday night.

Heading into Thanksgiving, the morning lows will be teens and
20s in the mountains, with 20s and low 30s in the lowlands. The
gusty winds will likely make it feel at least 10 degrees colder
in the lowlands, with single digit wind chills in the higher
peaks of the northern mountains. Temperatures won`t go far as
some cold advection will continue, with lowland highs only in
the 30s to around 40 degrees, while the central and northern
mountains remain in the 20s, with much colder wind chills. Some
sunshine may work into the southern part of the CWA, but W`ly
winds with some lingering low-level moisture may conspire to
keep clouds over the northern part of the CWA, especially up
against the northern mountains.

As we get more hi-res data, we`ll be taking a closer look at
the potential for some lingering snow showers or flurries in and
west of the mountains, though the W`ly low-level winds are not
quite as favorable for that as NW`ly winds that would bring in
some more direct moisture from the Great Lakes. Winds remain
gusty for the higher terrain Thursday night, and another Wind
Advisory may be needed that night, as well, but the
probabilities are a bit lower at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 215 AM Tuesday...

Friday looks similar to Thursday, though likely a few degrees
colder, with it remaining breezy and featuring clouds in the
north and some potential sunshine in the southern zones. High
pressure shifting over the Friday night into Saturday morning
should bring some calming winds and briefly clear skies for
everyone, along with the start of a modest warming trend over
the weekend. The clear skies look to be short-lived, however, as
the next system to eject out of the desert Southwest will start
to spread clouds over the area during the day on Saturday.
However, models continue to struggle on latching onto this
system just yet, with significant discrepancies between models
and between runs on the details. As a result, we keep POPs
limited to 50% or less for Sunday and Monday until we can gain a
bit more confidence on track and timing.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1240 AM Tuesday...

Mid-level clouds between FL080 and FL150 have spread over the
region, with some areas of lower clouds between FL050 and FL080
noted as well. As rain approaches the area, we will see these
lower clouds become more widespread, and they will continue to
gradually lower through the morning hours. VFR conditions are
forecast to drop to MVFR in rain and lowering clouds between 12z
and 18z, and will likely remain prevailing MVFR for the rest of
the TAF period for most if not all of our TAF sites. Some areas
of IFR visibility in heavier rain, or IFR ceilings later in the
TAF period, are possible and hinted at in some model data, but
confidence was not high enough to include in any prevailing
groups at this time.

Initially light S-SE`ly breezes will increase and become gusty
by the morning hours, with gusts of 15-20kts common in the
lower elevations, and 20-25kt gusts in and near the mountains.
Winds diminish somewhat after 00z tonight, and will gradually
turn more S-SW`ly ahead of the approaching cold front.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of rain and associated restrictions may
vary from forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   TUE 11/25/25
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR may be possible in rain Tuesday night into Wednesday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK
NEAR TERM...FK
SHORT TERM...FK
LONG TERM...FK
AVIATION...FK