333
FXUS61 KRLX 231346
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
846 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in later today following the passage of a weak,
dry cold front. A system approaches Tuesday, bringing the next chance
for widespread rain. Turning much colder, breezy, and dry for Thanksgiving.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 840 AM Sunday...

Patchy valley fog across southern WV and southwest VA will
continue to mix out over the next hour or so. This gives way to
a quiet Sunday as a weak, dry cold front crosses through the
region, currently just to the northwest of the CWA. Mostly sunny
skies are expected across northeast KY, southeast OH, and
southwest VA, while partly to mostly cloudy skies linger in WV
in and near the mountains. Breezy conditions will develop this
afternoon across the area (15-25 MPH), with gusty winds of 25-35
MPH possible in the mountains.

As of 100 AM Sunday...

Current satellite imagery and surface observations indicate
a break in the clouds between departing stratocumulus deck and
another stratocumulus deck associated with a cold
front/prefrontal trough. In areas where skies have cleared and
winds remain light, radiational cooling has allowed temperatures
to drop toward the dewpoint, resulting in mainly valley fog
formation.

Through daybreak, the primary forecast challenge is the
competition between radiational fog development and turbulent
mixing associated with an approaching prefrontal trough and dry
cold front. As the boundary nears from the northwest, the
pressure gradient will tighten, introducing enough boundary
layer stirring to likely disperse fog across the northwestern
half of the forecast area and this trend should continue.
However, sheltered river valleys across these area could hold
onto the fog once it develops.

Following the frontal passage this morning, deep mixing is
expected to tap into stronger flow aloft. Model soundings
indicate a mixed layer extending to near 850mb, where winds are
forecast to be 20-25KTs. Momentum transfer will result in
breezy westerly surface winds developing by late morning, with
gusts of 20 to 25 mph common across the lowlands and perhaps
slightly higher along the ridges. Cold advection behind the
front will be offset by insolation, allowing high temperatures
to reach the mid 50s in the lowlands, with 40s in the
mountains this afternoon.

High pressure settles directly overhead tonight. With the
pressure gradient relaxing and skies remaining mostly clear,
conditions will be ideal for strong radiational cooling. This
setup favors the development widespread river valley fog with
some also likely expanding outside of the valleys. While central
guidance often struggles with the extent of cold air drainage
in these scenarios, expect overnight lows to drop into the 30s,
with the coldest hollows likely dipping into the upper 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 100 AM Sunday...

High pressure shifts east of the mountains on Monday, initiating
return flow. While the day will remain dry with highs generally
in the 50s and 60s, clouds will begin to increase from the
west/southwest late in the day.

Precipitation chances return early Tuesday as a shortwave trough
ejecting from the Southern Rockies interacts with a northern
stream disturbance. A tightening pressure gradient will induce
a 40-50KT low-level jet at H850, with its nose across the
Middle Ohio Valley by Tuesday morning. This feature will drive
strong moisture transport and isentropic ascent over the
retreating cool dome. Consequently, periods of rain are expected
to overspread the area from southwest to northeast Tuesday
morning and persist into the evening.

While kinematics are impressive, instability looks negligible,
limiting the thunder potential. Rainfall amounts should remain
manageable, generally under an half an inch. A cold front
associated with this lead wave will cross Tuesday night. This
boundary appears fairly weak and diffuse, likely stalling or
washing out nearby as attention turns to the upstream kicker
trough. Temperatures Tuesday will be mild, aided by the strong
warm advection, with highs reaching the 60s for many lowland
locations despite the clouds and rain.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 100 AM Sunday...

A secondary, more potent cold front associated with a deep upper
trough digging into the central U.S. will sweep through the area
on Wednesday. This boundary will be more meridional and will
mark the leading edge of a substantially colder continental
polar airmass. While some lingering showers are possible with
the frontal passage, moisture availability will be compromised
by the preceding system, keeping any QPF light.

Behind the front, H850 temperatures are forecast to plunge,
supporting high confidence in a much colder pattern for
Thanksgiving Day. High temperatures on Thursday will likely
struggle to exit the lower 40s in the lowlands and will remain
below freezing in the highest elevations. When combined with
blustery northwesterly winds gusting 20-25 mph, wind chill
values will likely remain in the 20s and 30s for most of the
holiday.

Parcel trajectories behind the front on Thursday appear too
westerly to support a robust Great Lakes moisture connection,
suggesting a largely dry forecast. By Friday, surface high
pressure begins to build into the Lower Ohio Valley. Boundary
layer flow may veer slightly more north-northwesterly, which
could theoretically support some isolated lake-enhanced flurries
across the far northern counties.

Temperatures will moderate slightly heading into the weekend as
heights build aloft ahead of the next potential system emerging
from the Southern Rockies early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 445 AM Sunday...

A mixed bag of fog, low stratus, and mid-cloud exists across the
region this morning with highly variable flight conditions at
most terminals. Increasing mixing ahead of a mostly dry cold
front should yield dissipation of any fog near or shortly after
the 12Z TAF issuance, with some continuation of IFR
stratocumulus possible for an hour or two this morning,
especially across the central and southern terminals.

By 14Z, mainly VFR conditions should prevail area-wide with
additional mixing. Mixing will transport stronger momentum to
the surface, resulting in gusty westerly winds, 8-10KTs gusting
into the upper teens or lower 20s late morning into this
afternoon.

Winds will decouple quickly after 00Z as high pressure settles
in. This will set the stage for widespread dense valley fog
Sunday night, with LIFR conditions likely developing at all
terminals, likely fairly early in the overnight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low through 14Z with highly variable flight
conditions in pockets of fog/stratus, then high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of mixing out of fog/stratus may
vary this morning. Onset time of valley fog tonight could vary
from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are forecast.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/GW
NEAR TERM...JP/GW
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JP