695
FXUS61 KRLX 200958
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
558 AM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
12Z Aviation Forecast Discussion update.

No significant changes were made from the previous forecast
package.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Unsettled through mid week amid a cooling trend with
improving conditions for the end of the week and the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Active weather will persist through today and past mid week. A
frontal boundary will drape across the region and will meander
through Monday while pushing slowly south and finally exiting
by mid day Monday. This feature will provide chances for shower
and storm activity and where a few storms could be strong to
severe which should be isolated in nature. The main threat will
be damaging wind. Much of the activity will be confined to the
northern parts of our Country Warning Area where higher
probabilities of precipitation exist.

Another aspect is the area will be under an excessive rainfall
outlook and the threat of heavy downpours amid thunderstorm
activity will likely cause some instances of flash flooding to
flood prone or low lying areas if hit repeatedly. This will be
supported by anomalously high PWATs for this time of year. Once
the feature exits a low pressure system digging and
strengthening across the Great Lakes will come into the region
and promote synoptic scale ascent to broaden the unsettled
weather across our entire area.

For much of Monday and Tuesday and even Wednesday will be under
the influence of broad low pressure and chances for shower and
thunderstorms. This is especially for Tuesday and Wednesday
with high probabilities of precipitation especially during
the daytime. This activity along with weak cold air advection
will promote temperatures below seasonable starting Tuesday and
continuing into the weekend promoting comfortable weather amid
drier conditions as strong high pressure builds in for the the
end of the work week and for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A very active morning with shower and thunderstorm activity
possible at all sites. Enough cloud coverage, surface flow and
convection should depress any fog development this morning.
At times a site may go down in VIS temporarily or stay until
any shower activity has ended. After morning convection, any
low stratus will lift and VFR should prevail the rest of the
TAF period until late tonight when valley fog is anticipated
along with more possible shower activity. There may be some MVFR
CIGs that hold on to the eastern sites near CKB/EKN through the
afternoon. There could be thunderstorm activity this afternoon
at PKB/CKB/EKN which may bring down CIGs and/or VIS to MVFR or
worse temporarily.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of showers/storms may vary from the
forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EDT 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    M    M    M    M

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR conditions possible in showers and storms each day through
mid week.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JZ
AVIATION...JZ