Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
544 FXUS61 KRLX 291754 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 154 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The National Blend of Models has sped up the timing of the front on Friday with likely PoPs coming in a bit sooner than the previous forecast package. The weekend still looks to be up in the air with models showing low confidence of frontal passage in a timely manner with the frontal boundary meandering into Monday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1.) A warming trend into Friday with mainly dry conditions. 2.) Widespread rain and thunderstorm chances return Friday afternoon courtesy of a cold frontal boundary which could possibly linger through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Surface high pressure and upper level ridging keeps the region dry with weak boundary layer flow. This will promote valley fog once again overnight tonight into Wednesday morning. Some areas may see dense fog which could impact certain areas with patchy dense fog through the morning which would lower visibility and possibly impact driving conditions. Temperatures will continue to warm through the work week getting anomalously above the average for this time of year by Thursday. However, by Friday temperatures will start to come down in values due to cloud coverage and a cold frontal boundary affecting the region possibly into or through the weekend. KEY MESSAGE 2... A cold front is forecast to affect the region on Friday afternoon pushing into the area from the north which will subsequently spread rain and chances for thunderstorms throughout the day toward the south. The lack of any modest shear and high instability will limit the severe weather threat, however a few stronger storms cannot be ruled out. Heavy downpours are possible with enough DCAPE and PWAT values to support this solution. Very localized instances of flash flooding could be possible along low lying and flood prone areas who are hit repeatedly for Friday and even on Saturday. WPC has us in a marginal threat for excessive rainfall for much of the area on Saturday. Depending on how long the frontal boundary meanders across the area will determine the severity threat of any real hydro issues. Medium range models have the front slowing down and possibly becoming stationary as high pressure from the south does not allow for safe and quick frontal passage. This means that the area may have to endure unsettled weather for much of the weekend until stronger high pressure builds in from the northwest and a clipper type system finally brushes the quasi- stationary frontal boundary out of the region pushing it well to our south by Monday morning according to models. This model solution means that more active weather will likely stick around through the weekend and possibly give the area some issues with hydro on Saturday albeit localized and isolated since the area has been dry but will likely be slightly primed due to any convection that occurs on Friday. If the frontal boundary has trouble exiting on Sunday any primed areas from previous rainfall could promote susceptible areas to flash flooding under heavy thunderstorm or downpour activity throughout Sunday and into Monday or when the front finally exits far enough to the south to mitigate impacts. Stronger high pressure will filter in Monday and get the region back into a settled weather pattern with temperatures returning back down to around the climatological average for this time of year. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... There is a cumulus field out across the terminals along with lingering stratus that will continue to slowly lift and scatter out through the afternoon. Some CIGs will hover around MVFR, but will predominately be higher in nature and stay VFR until late tonight when valley fog becomes a possibility once again. Some areas may have dense valley fog that could get into many of the sites, especially CRW/PKB/CKB and EKN. Any fog should lift out by 13/14Z to open up the area back to prevailing VFR for the daytime. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of fog formation could vary overnight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 EDT 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M H H H H H AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JZ AVIATION...JZ