342
FXUS61 KRLX 251646
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1246 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
The heat wave continues through the end of the week for much of
the area, but eases up slightly as the chance for mainly
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms increases.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1207 PM Wednesday...

Key Points:

* Extreme Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories continue across the
  lowlands and southern and lower mountainous terrain for heat
  index values in the 100s this afternoon.

* Heat Advisories are in effect across the lowlands for heat
  index values in the 100s Thursday afternoon.

* Heat Advisories are in effect across the lowlands for heat
  index values in the 100s Friday afternoon.

High pressure at the surface and aloft will continue to provide
hot and humid weather conditions through the end of the week.
Another warm and muggy night is on tap for tonight, providing
little relief from the persistent heat. Heat advisories and
warnings continue in effect for most of the area as heat index
values meander around 103 this afternoon. Extreme Heat Warnings
and Heat Advisories have been extended into Thursday evening for
most parts of NE Kentucky, SE Ohio and much of the lowlands of
West Virginia, as similar conditions are expected.

Similar hot and humid conditions are anticipated on Friday, so
another Heat Advisory has been issued for all of the lowlands until
8 PM Friday evening.

With abundant low level moisture (PWATs around 2 inches), afternoon
heat and a lack of deep layered shear or any other upper level
support, isolated diurnal convection can be expected every afternoon
and evening through Friday. Water loading soundings are indicative
of strong downburst possible. WPC keeps a marginal risk for
excessive rainfall at least for some portions of our area every day
through Friday.

Very warm and muggy nights will continue, with precipitation
activity promoting chances for overnight fog development wherever
they occur.

Expect an increase in convective coverage each day as a frontal
boundary approaches from the north.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1207 PM Wednesday...

Weather charts suggest the front will never make it south into
our area. Instead, the frontal boundary lifts north over the
weekend as the upper level high drifts east of the Appalachians
by Friday night. This will allow for southern stream shortwave
to lift north and provide some forcing under a moist and
unstable environment. Therefore, the area will remain unsettled
with additional afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible
over the weekend.

Very warm and muggy nights will continue, with precipitation
activity promoting chances for overnight fog development wherever
they occur.

Temperatures will moderate some, due to cloudiness and afternoon cooling
shower.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1207 PM Wednesday...

Better chances for showers and storms arrive Tuesday with a cold
front. Dry weather returns by mid next week. Temperatures will
moderate some behind the cold front by mid week.

Central guidance keeps highs around 90 and lows around 70 across the
lowlands into early next week, before both tail off toward normal
heading into the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1235 PM Wednesday...

Radar imagery shows afternoon convection firing up across
portions of SE OH and northern WV at the time of writing. Expect
this convection to expand in coverage through this evening as
they move slowly east. Brief periods of IFR/LIFR visibility
will be possible along the heavier showers or storms. Otherwise,
VFR conditions will prevail under weak flow through at least
midnight.

Areas of IFR dense valley fog will be possible mainly over areas
that receive rainfall this afternoon and evening. Any dense fog
will quickly dissipate by 12Z Thursday morning.

Surface flow will be calm to light and variable, beneath light,
mainly northwest flow aloft.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and impacts from thunderstorms may
vary from forecast. Timing and extent of valley fog late
tonight may vary, including the possibility of earlier, denser
fog where thunderstorms occur this afternoon or this evening.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR conditions possible in afternoon and evening thunderstorms,
and early morning fog, through Sunday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 630 AM Wednesday...

Forecast and Record High Temperatures:

June 24:
KCRW: 96    96/1929
KHTS: 97   105/1930
KCKB: 94    97/1923
KPKB: 94    96/1930
KBKW: 91    90/1949
KEKN: 92    90/1949

June 25:
KCRW: 93   103/1930
KHTS: 95   101/1921
KCKB: 91    96/1930
KPKB: 92   100/1988
KBKW: 88    91/1914
KEKN: 90    92/1914

June 26:
KCRW: 93    99/1934
KHTS: 93    99/1954
KCKB: 91    96/1930
KPKB: 91    97/1952
KBKW: 86    93/1934
KEKN: 88    90/2005

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Heat Advisory from 8 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>031.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Thursday for WVZ005>011-
     013>020-026>031.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for WVZ024-025-
     032>034-039-040-515-517-519.
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for OHZ066-067-083-084.
     Heat Advisory from 8 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Thursday for OHZ075-076-
     085>087.
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for KYZ101-102-105.
     Heat Advisory from 8 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for KYZ101>103-105.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Thursday for KYZ103.
VA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ003-004.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM/ARJ
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...ARJ

CLIMATE...TRM