808
FXUS61 KRLX 160511
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
111 AM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Slow moving, heavy rain showers and storms will continue
through Tuesday. Localized flooding is possible. Flow begins to
strengthen mid to late week with an uptick in severe potential.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 1035 PM Sunday...

A small cluster of showers near the surface low pressure center
in central WV has become nearly stationary while slowly
growing. Another cluster of heavy showers was moving slowly east
through southern WV. Areas like these will need to be watched
into the overnight hours amid the still, saturated air.
Convective-allowing models that show these areas move them
around a bit or redevelop them nearby, before dissipating
during the pre-dawn hours.

As of 740 PM Sunday...

With significant rainfall over much of the Flood Watch area
this afternoon and evening, and a flat wave crossing Monday
afternoon and evening amid PW values still up around two inches,
and only slightly stronger flow than today, and in coordination
with neighbors to the north and east, have extended all of the
Flood Watch for Flash Flooding through Monday evening.

The forecast otherwise remains on track, with activity at least
in terms of intensity waning this evening.

As of 125 PM Sunday...

Key Points:

* Warm, moist airmass with limited, but deep instability yields
  efficient and heavy rainfall.

* Scattered to numerous instances of flash flooding possible through
  tonight

* Isolated instances of significant flash flooding are possible with
  loitering or multiple instances of heavy downpours, highest risk
  near the higher terrain

* Limited risk for severe weather outside of flooding, although some
  locally gusty winds could cause tree damage with any convection

A weak upper level low as opened up into a wave and is slowly
working its away across the region this afternoon. The atmosphere
remains primed to produce efficient and heavy rainfall with
precipitable water values 1.7 to nearly 2.0 inches, deep warm cloud
depths, deep, but skinny instability profiles and H700 steering flow
of generally less than 10KTs. Although much weaker than progged
yesterday due to the weakening low circulation, a ~10KT feed of
additional low level moisture on a north-northwesterly trajectory is
also feeding into the higher terrain from the Atlantic Coastal Plain.

A combination of filtered insolation, weak vorticity maxima
transiting the area, and upslope flow will provide the focus for
deep moist convection through the remainder of the afternoon and
into the early overnight. Rainfall rates of generally 1-2" per hour
are expected with this activity, with locally higher rates possible
in collapsing cores. Several locations across the region have been
hit with heavy rainfall in preceding days with a patchwork of 1hr
flash flood guidance values from less than 1 inch up to around 2
inches. In the mountains, where there is a maxima of overlap between
the aforementioned factors for heavy rain, some pockets of 6hr flash
flood guidance are as low as 2 inches. Expect several instances of
lower end flash flooding this afternoon into tonight. Isolated
instances of significant flooding are also possible if heavy rain
either dwells over an individual spot, occurs multiple times over an
individual spot, or a core collapse occurs after an individual spot
has already received some heavy rain. While not quite as robust as
yesterday due to the weakening H850 flow, HREF 6hr probability
matched means do still show some bullets of 3-4" of rain in the 18-
00Z window this afternoon into this evening along the higher
terrain. A flash flood watch remains in effect through tonight for
much of the area.

With a weakly sheared column, not expecting severe thunderstorms
through this evening, but sub-severe thunderstorm winds near any
collapsing cells could still cause some tree damage, especially in
area with very wet soils.

Should see activity progressively wane through the overnight as we
lose heating, but any weak vort maxima would likely sustain at least
some scattered heavy rain producing convection into the overnight.

While the column will remain very moist with weak flow on Monday,
the lack of appreciable forcing should serve to limit convection to
diurnally enhanced activity. This activity will still be capable of
producing heavy rainfall rates, and will have some potential to
backbuild off the higher terrain. Depending on how compromised the
soils become with activity tonight, this may justify another flash
flood watch given potential large impact of high rates on these
compromised soils even with coverage being fairly limited. At this
time, don`t have the confidence level to pull the trigger on this,
but it will continue to be evaluated as tonight`s heavy rain unfolds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 150 PM Sunday...

Unsettled weather pattern continues in the short term period.
Frontal boundary should generally be north of the CWA at the start
of the period, with a warm and humid air mass in place. A shortwave
will lift northeast through the area Tuesday. An increase in
southerly flow out ahead of the wave will result in a renewed surge
of moisture to the area, with PWATs possibly topping 2 inches.
Storms should overall move a little better on Tuesday with a slight
uptick in steering flow, however, will continue to need to monitor
the situation for flooding issues, especially if Sunday and Monday
result in widespread areas of rainfall. In addition, there is the
possibility for an isolated strong to severe storm on Tuesday, due
to increasing shear and steep low level lapse rates. Greatest hazard
Tuesday would be a damaging wind threat.

Aforementioned shortwave will lift to the northeast Tuesday night
into Wednesday. However, additional showers and storms can be
expected on Wednesday during peak heating hours in the warm, humid,
unstable conditions, and as multiple disturbances move through the
flow at times.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 150 PM Sunday...

On Thursday, an upper trough, will push east through the area, with
the frontal boundary that has been located to our north, finally
sweeping through the area. Severe weather may be possible during
this period, and spc already has parts of the area highlighted for
Thursday, with a damaging wind threat looking to be most likely.
Overall drier weather is expected Friday and Saturday behind the
departing system, however, occasional light showers cannot be
completely ruled out.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 105 AM Monday...

Fog and low stratus are expected to bring periods of IFR/LIFR flight
conditions to most terminals early this morning. A few
lingering showers could also produce MVFR conditions within the
area. MVFR ceilings are likely to hold on through the morning,
then sub-VFR CIG/VIS restrictions remain possible as shower and
thunderstorm activity increases again during the afternoon and
evening.

Winds should remain light and variable for much of the TAF
period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent of fog tonight and duration of
precipitation on Monday may vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             MON 06/16/25
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    L    H    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    L    H    L    M    H    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    M    L    M    M    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    L    L    M    H    M    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
Brief IFR possible in rounds of showers and thunderstorms
through Tuesday, and again on Thursday. Locally heavy rain
during the afternoons and evenings could yield patchy dense
overnight fog each night.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch through this evening for WVZ006>011-013>020-
     026>032-039-040-515>526.
OH...Flood Watch through this evening for OHZ067-075-076-085>087.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM/JP/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/JP
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...20