948
FXUS61 KRLX 051943
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
243 PM EST Wed Feb 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Potent, moisture-laden low pressure systems will impact the
area through Thursday, this weekend, and early to mid next
week, each with heavy rain, and mixed wintry precipitation.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 230 PM Wednesday...

Key Points

* Freezing rain expected across portions of SE OH and WV mtns. A
  brief period of freezing rain is possible for SE OH and north-
  central WV this evening, but quickly changing to rain.

* Heavy rain with embedded storms will lead to an increased
  flood threat, therefore a Flood Watch has been issued this
  evening through Thursday afternoon for much of the area.

A storm system will bring a myriad of impacts over the next 24
hrs with wintry precip and the potential for flooding. The
first concern will be the wintry aspect with Winter Weather ADVs
in SE OH and Winter Weather ADVs/Ice Storm Warning for portions
of the mtns. Overall ice accumulations in SE OH from a glaze to
one tenth of an inch with high probs upwards of 60% chance of
occurring. For this evening, there could be a brief period of
freezing rain or even a few sleet pellets across the rest of SE
OH and portions of north-central WV. HREF showing probs of a
glaze around 5-30%, so this will need to be monitored. Will
issue an SPS as needed to account for this brief possibility.
Any wintry precip would only last for 1-2 hrs outside of the
ADV area, but with marginal temps and very warm inversion temps,
accretion should struggle.

Further east into the mtns, no changes with two to four tenths
of an inch of freezing rain expected. Freezing rain will
transition to to all rain by 9am or so.

For the flooding aspect of the system, high res cams are coming
into better agreement showing several stripes of higher rain
amounts across the region. This is backed up by several CAMS and
has been persistent today. HREF 24HR Means show a solid 0.75" to
1.25 swath over the area. Looking at the PMM/LPMM shows stripes
of 1.25" to around 2.5" of rainfall through Thursday afternoon.
This seems reasonable given the environment, threat for a several
hour period of training, and elevated convection increasing
rainfall rates. Given the above normal flows on areas creeks and
streams, nearly saturated grounds, and the expectation of
higher rainfall rates, flooding is possible. A Flood Watch has
been issued for much of the area this evening into Thursday
afternoon.

As for the severe threat, instability is limited, but shear is
more than sufficient combined with the dynamical forcing for a
few strong storms. Even an isolated severe storm cannot be ruled
out, with marginally severe hail the main threat late tonight
into early Thursday across SW WV, SE OH, and NE KY. Elsewhere,
any storms should primarily enhance rainfall rates with only
small hail.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 133 PM Wednesday...

Cold front should generally be south of the CWA at the start of the
period, with high pressure nudging in from the north, and a gradual
drying trend taking hold. It will still be gusty at times on Friday,
particularly across the mountains before decreasing by the evening
as the pressure gradient relaxes. After a brief break for much of
Friday, another potent low will move into the area over the weekend,
providing another soaking rain to the area, and creating the
potential for another round of hydro issues. The area is already
outlooked in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall on Saturday. As
with previous system, precipitation could start off as a wintry mix
across parts of the north, but is overall looking to be relatively
short lived.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 133 PM Wednesday...

Low pressure will continue to move northeast of the area on Saturday
night into Sunday, with rain continuing across the area. Frontal
boundary associated with the low will push east through the area
early Sunday, with colder, or perhaps even falling temperatures
during the day Sunday, and a change over to a brief period of wintry
precipitation possible, mainly across the higher terrain, before
moisture exits the area. After another brief break, additional
disturbances, are looking to form across the southern plains and
move northeast into the area, advecting high moisture content air
into the area. At this point, there is much uncertainty regarding
this period, but periods of wintry weather, along with periods of
all rain are looking to be possible, perhaps even at least light
accumulations are possible even across parts of the lowlands at
times.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 155 PM Wednesday...

A warm front will bring deteriorating flight conditions in rain
this period. MVFR will transition to MVFR/IFR for area TAF
sites through the evening into Thursday morning.

Light southwest flow aloft today will strengthen tonight,
becoming strong overnight, 50-60 kts at 5 kft. Low level wind
shear will likely develop overnight tonight on account of this,
and a stout temperatures inversion, as the warm front approaches
from the south. Once the warm front moves through, surface flow
will become gusty southwest, allowing the low level wind shear
to mix through/diminish toward dawn Thursday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: A brief period of light freezing rain is
possible for KPKB, KCKB, KEKN briefly this evening, but will
quickly change to rain. THunderstorms early Thursday morning
could produce small hail, lightning, and heavy rain with
additional reductions to VSBYs possible.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    M    M    L    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    M    H    M    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR in rain heavy at times Thursday morning into Thursday
afternoon.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch from 10 PM EST this evening through Thursday
     afternoon for WVZ005>008-013>020-024>034-039-040-515>526.
     Ice Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Thursday for WVZ523-524.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for WVZ526.
OH...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 AM EST
     Thursday for OHZ066-067-075-084.
KY...Flood Watch from 10 PM EST this evening through Thursday
     afternoon for KYZ105.
VA...Flood Watch from 10 PM EST this evening through Thursday
     afternoon for VAZ003-004.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JRM
NEAR TERM...JRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JRM