494
FXUS61 KRLX 140902
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
502 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated aviation discussion at 09Z.

Rounds of rain expected through early next week. Latest
thoughts in Key Message 1.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Rounds of rain will continue through early next week,
leading to continued chances of flash flooding each day. A break
in the rainfall will arrive by Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

The overall synoptic pattern will remain the same throughout the
weekend with a ridge of high pressure locked over the
southeastern states and rounds of shortwave energy tracking over
the periphery of the ridge. With progressively saturated soils
after days of continued rainfall, flash flooding will remain a
threat across the region. The Weather Prediction Center
currently places at least some portions of the area under a
Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall each day through 12Z Monday.
Precipitable water values will remain high during this entire
period, ranging from 2.00 to 2.25 inches.

The pattern will begin to shift early next week. On Tuesday, the
axis of the upper-level ridge will transition from the
southeastern states to the southwestern states, and a surface
high will build into the middle Ohio Valley and Appalachians.
This would bring the return of some drier weather area-wide
Tuesday and Wednesday, before another system approaches later in
the week with rain returning.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The main concern this morning is MVFR/IFR ceilings rather than
dense fog. This is expected to continue most of the morning as
showers and a few thunderstorms approach from the northwest. The
combination of clouds and a light breeze has prevented the
development of widespread dense fog this morning.

Expect vicinity thunderstorms during the midday and afternoon
hours. Any thunderstorm can produce heavy downpours, reducing
visibility to MVFR or IFR conditions temporarily today.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of thunderstorms may vary today.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               FRI 08/14/26
UTC 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
EDT 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    M    L    M    M    H    M    H    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
Periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms continue through
early next week. Brief IFR or lower conditions will be possible
in direct thunderstorm hits or heavy downpours. Where overnight
clearing occurs over wet ground, patchy valley fog and stratus
may bring early morning MVFR or IFR restrictions.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch through this evening for WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>034-039-040-515>526.
OH...Flood Watch through this evening for OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...Flood Watch through this evening for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...Flood Watch through this evening for VAZ003-004.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...26