188
FXUS61 KRLX 290421
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1221 AM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Models continue to offer various solutions for the forecast on
Sunday, leading to lower confidence.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1.) Afternoon temperatures warm through Thursday with mostly dry
conditions.

2.) Widespread rain chances return Friday into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Broad surface high pressure today keeps the boundary layer flow
light. Low-level flow transitions to southwesterly by
Wednesday. This will allow temperatures to gradually warm, with
afternoon readings by Thursday in the 80s for all but the
higher elevations.



KEY MESSAGE 2...

A cold front will then push southward into the region on Friday,
bringing chances of showers, and possibly thunderstorms. Models
then diverge on where the front stalls out, with some taking the
front south of the region and other leaving it over the area.
This is critical to the forecast over the weekend. If the front
goes south of the area, the best moisture and instability would
stay south of the region. If the front were to stall over the
area, heavier rainfall would become a possibility.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Some river valley fog will form this morning in areas that are
cloud free, mainly southern West Virginia, southwest Virginia,
northeast Kentucky, and portions of southern Ohio. Some IFR or MVFR
clouds are possible in northeastern West Virginia, with some fog
as well.

Those clouds over the northeast will gradually lift today, into
a high MVFR deck and then become scattered, with VFR further
south and west. By this evening, expect VFR area wide.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium this morning, otherwise high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: The height of the cloud deck over
northeastern WV and how much fog is associated with it could
vary. The timing of fog development may vary.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            TUE 09/29/26
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    L    L    L    L    L    M    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR or lower from valley fog is forecast Wednesday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RPY
AVIATION...RPY