544
FXUS61 KRLX 170035
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
835 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A tropically influenced airmass remains over the region with
numerous weak disturbances passing through. Locally heavy
showers and storms are possible each afternoon into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 835 PM Wednesday...

Forecast on track, as strong, heavy thunderstorms rumble across
the middle Ohio Valley and into WV. These are associated with a
weak mid-level flat wave, and should at least weaken after
sunset as they continue moving east across the WV lowlands and
on onto the WV mountains tonight.

As of 1203 PM Wednesday...

Showers and thunderstorms will return today as a weak disturbance
aloft tracks from west to east. The northern mountains and portions
of northern West Virginia and southeast Ohio will be at greatest
risk of seeing rain today. Heavy downpours will continue to be the
main concern with very high moisture content in the atmosphere.
Precipitable Water (PWAT) values are forecast to range from 1.8
inches in the mountains to 2.2 inches along and west of the Ohio
River. While wind shear is expected to remain weak (20-25 knots), it
may be sufficient to support a localized damaging wind threat. The
Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a marginal risk of severe
weather for the area today, with damaging winds being the primary
concern.

Thunderstorms will gradually diminish after sunset, leading to
generally quiet conditions overnight. Thursday will be another
repeat of todays weather with additional afternoon showers and
thunderstorms as another upper-level disturbance passes by.

The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has issued a slight risk of
excessive rainfall across the northern portions of the area today,
closely aligning with the 500-mb shortwave`s track. The excessive
rainfall threat for Thursday is marginal, likely due to weaker
forcing. However, given increasingly saturated ground conditions and
high atmospheric moisture content, close monitoring for flooding
potential will remain crucial.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1204 PM Wednesday...

The excessive rainfall threat will increase heading into the weekend
as a front approaches the middle Ohio Valley and becomes stationary.
Models are in strong agreement that a southwesterly flow of moisture
into a parked frontal boundary will create numerous showers and
thunderstorms each day. Widespread PWAT values are expected to be 2
inches or greater across the region.

With numerous days of scattered to widespread thunderstorm activity
and an already saturated ground, flooding will be closely monitored
each day this weekend. The severe threat again remains low
throughout the weekend, but isolated damaging wind gusts cannot be
ruled out in some thunderstorms.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1204 PM Wednesday...

A retreating frontal boundary on Sunday, coupled with residual upper-
level energy and a moist southwesterly flow from the Gulf, will
maintain a risk of heavy rainfall. Beyond Sunday, the forecast
becomes more uncertain due to diverging model solutions. The ECMWF
suggests a cold front may clear the region on Monday, bringing high
pressure and a brief break in the rainfall Tuesday. Conversely, the
GFS indicates the front may linger, leading to continued unsettled
weather Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 835 PM Wednesday...

Strong, heavy thunderstorms were rumbling across the middle
Ohio Valley and into WV early this evening. The main line
crossing th Ohio River early this evening was impacting PKB, but
did not extend as far south as HTS so far. A lone storm out in
front was passing just to the southeast of CRW. Brief
reductions in ceiling/visibility under heavier showers/storms
are possible, elsewhere VFR should prevail.

The thunderstorms should at least weaken as they continue
moving east across the WV lowlands, and on onto the WV
mountains, tonight. CKB may be impacted 01-03Z and EKN 02-05Z,
if at all. Thunderstorms are not expected to impact HTS or BKW
tonight. MVFR stratocumulus is possible in the mountains
overnight into

Thursday will be another in a long stretch of days with very
warm, humid air, diurnal heating, mid-level flat waves, and a
front close by to the north, all contributing to afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms. PROB30 groups were included
for all but the mountain sites but thunderstorm coding may
eventually be needed there as well.

There is sufficient gradient flow from the southwest to prevent
fog formation tonight, and it will be a bit gusty at times
again Thursday, from the west to southwest. Light to moderate
west to southwest flow aloft tonight will become light to
moderate west to northwest on Thursday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z
FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, locations and intensity of showers
and thunderstorms could vary from forecast. Overnight fog
formation is not entirely out of the question tonight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 THU
UTC 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
EDT 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    M    H    L    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
Brief periods of IFR conditions possible under showers and
thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours
through the week, and even into next week. IFR or worse fog is
also possible during the overnights, especially where any heavy
rain falls during the previous afternoon or evening.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMC
NEAR TERM...TRM/JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...TRM