087
FXUS61 KRLX 160751
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
351 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A higher chance for showers and storms now exists late this
afternoon into tonight across the Mid-Ohio Valley, with SPC
having introduced a Marginal Risk for severe storms (damaging
wind threat) during this timeframe for portions of southeast
Ohio and northern West Virginia. In addition, updated 06Z
Aviation Discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Hot and muggy weather is expected today and Thursday, with
heat indices forecast to reach the mid 90s to 100 across
portions of the lowlands on both days. Friday through the
weekend will not be as hot, albeit still on the warm and humid
side given the time of year.

2) An active pattern returns today as a cold front approaches
the area from the north. The front is progged to become quasi-
stationary in the vicinity of the forecast area through the
weekend and into early next week, serving up daily chances of
showers and storms. Storms could be strong and heavy at times,
with the main concerns being the potential for localized flash
flooding and strong wind gusts.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Another quiet morning across the area amid clear skies courtesy
of lingering surface high pressure. Temperatures this morning
are generally 10 degrees warmer than that of yesterday. Patchy
river valley fog is developing in spots, primarily south of the
Ohio River, but coverage is much less widespread than that of
yesterday morning.

Heat and humidity will continue to increase across the area
today as southwest to west low-level flow ushers in an
increasingly humid Gulf airmass around the periphery of an
upper ridge centered near the Tennessee Valley. Highs today and
tomorrow are progged to be the warmest of the week, with upper
80s to low 90s expected across much of the lowlands. The
combination of the aforementioned temperatures with dew points
in the low 70s, will result in heat indices during the
afternoons reaching the mid 90s to 100 across the lowlands.
Overall, think today will be the hottest day, with increased
cloud cover and the chance for showers/storms on Thursday
potentially providing a bit of relief. Be sure to take frequent
breaks if outside during peak heating hours the next couple of
days.

Some relief is expected on Friday as the aforementioned frontal
boundary slides south of the area, bringing a return to near
seasonable values - low/mid 80s across the lowlands. Warmer and
humid conditions, albeit not as bad as today and Thursday,
return over the weekend as the front buckles back north of the
CWA. Highs are progged for the mid/upper 80s across the lowlands.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

After a brief quiet stretch, active weather quickly returns to
the area later today, likely persisting through the weekend and
into at least early next week. A cold front currently
positioned across the northern Ohio Valley will gradually move
southward towards the area throughout today. The front is
progged to become quasi-stationary across the general Ohio
Valley region tonight through the weekend, meandering
north/south at times. Current thinking is that the front slips
south of the area on Friday, then buckles back north during the
day on Saturday, then lingers across the northern Ohio Valley
into early next week, before eventually clearing east/south
towards mid next week courtesy of a more robust upper trough
(confidence this far out remains low).

This will result in daily chances for showers and storms for the
foreseeable future, with rain chances being highly correlated
to the position of the frontal boundary. Given the overall
recent wet pattern we`ve been in, and the return of a very moist
airmass with progged PWATs pushing 1.7-2.1" at times, the
concern for flash flooding will return, especially given the
potential for west-east training thunderstorms along the front
(given upper-level flow being parallel to the front). The period
of greatest concern in the near term is tonight and during the
day on Thursday. WPC has introduced a Marginal to Slight Risk
for excessive rainfall across northwest portions of the CWA for
tonight, while a Marginal Risk for much of the area on Thursday.
While confidence is not high enough for a Flood Watch at this
time, this will be monitored going forward, with a targeted
watch not out of the question if confidence in training storms
across a particular area were to increase. A general reprieve is
expected on Friday, with increasing shower/storm chances
Saturday into Sunday as the front lifts back north across the
area.

The other aspect of this pattern will be the potential for
strong to isolated severe thunderstorms at times, once again
hinging on the position of the frontal boundary. The general
setup will feature modest shear (15-25 kts / 0-6km) and modest
buoyancy (750-1,500 Mixed-layer CAPE) amid rather saturated
profiles. This translates into a strong to isolated damaging
wind threat with stronger (diurnally driven) collapsing cores
via wet downbursts. The first potential for this is expected
late this afternoon into early tonight across the Mid-Ohio
Valley, with SPC having introduced a Marginal Risk for severe
thunderstorms there. Some potential will also exist tomorrow
afternoon/evening, albeit probably further south in the CWA. A
reprieve is expected on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Some river valley fog is beginning to develop across the
valleys of WV, with a gradual northward expansion expected
through the remainder of the night. Fog should generally remain
up to or south of the Ohio River, and be less widespread than
yesterday morning. LIFR/VLIFR restrictions are progged at
CRW/EKN later this morning. Brief restrictions towards dawn
could also occur at CKB/PKB, but confidence is lower there, with
TEMPO groups inserted into their TAFs to account for this. Fog
will lift / scatter out from ~ 1130-1300Z on Wednesday morning.

This gives way to continued mainly dry weather on Wednesday
amid a FEW/SCT (025-045) Cu field late morning through the
afternoon across portions of the area. A few ISOLD
showers/storms are possible late this afternoon into early
tonight across the Mid-Ohio Valley, but confidence is too low
to include in the HTS or PKB TAFs, but a very brief MVFR VSBY
restriction cannot entirely be ruled out.

Calm to light and variable flow is expected through this TAF
period (until 06Z Thursday).

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog coverage, timing, and associated
restrictions this morning may vary from the forecast. A brief
MVFR shower or storm could occur across the Mid-Ohio Valley
late this afternoon into early tonight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              WED 09/16/26
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    L    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    L    L    M    L    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    L    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
Patchy IFR conditions are possible with river valley fog each
morning through the weekend, most likely in the valleys in and
near the higher terrain. Brief IFR conditions are possible at
times late Wednesday night onward within showers/storms.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...GW
AVIATION...GW