Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
962 FXUS61 KRLX 022346 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 746 PM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... 00Z Aviation Forecast Discussion Update. 114 PM Update... No significant changes from previous forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) There will be isolated showers and thunderstorms in the West Virginia mountains. Otherwise, the week remains dry, quiet, and comfortable. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A weak mid-level disturbance passing through the Appalachians can create an isolated thunderstorm or two this afternoon. Any rainfall amounts would be small, likely only amounting to up to around a quarter inch of rainfall. Slow-moving thunderstorms could produce higher rainfall amounts. Otherwise, high pressure will expand over the coverage area Wednesday with mostly sunny skies, comfortable temperatures, and dry weather. There will also be some very patchy river valley fog that develops each morning around sunrise, particularly in the mountain river valleys that sees rainfall today. The next chance of a changing pattern bringing rainfall will be late this weekend, as an upper-level low pressure system potentially arrives. Models are slightly more indicative today of this occurring, while yesterday, a few models kept a ridge of high pressure in control through early next week. However, there is still a vast amount of disagreement regarding the exact placement and track of low pressure. Because of this, the forecast for late this weekend is a bit uncertain, so PoPs will be limited to about 50 percent Sunday into Monday. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Mainly VFR conditions with light winds are expected throughout the period. Patchy IFR fog can be expected at KCRW and KEKN between 09Z and 12Z Wednesday. Any fog that does develop should dissipate quickly, by 12Z, with VFR returning thereafter. After brief gusty east winds along the Ohio River in the wake of a gust front from thunderstorms coming out of the mountains earlier, light northeast surface flow, except southeast at BKW on account of an inverted trough, will become calm to light and variable tonight, and then light north to northeast on Wednesday. Flow aloft will generally be light northeast. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog early Wednesday morning might be more widespread than anticipated. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED UTC 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 EDT 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z THURSDAY... IFR conditions in valley fog each morning through the balance of the week, as high pressure dominates. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...26 AVIATION...TRM