Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
246 FXUS61 KRLX 050955 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 455 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No major changes to the forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers taper off today as a cold front moves through. 2) Much cooler temperatures arrive this weekend behind the cold front, setting up frost/freeze concerns across our active growing season counties. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A cold front will push through the area today, causing showers to taper off from west to east. Most of the region has received less than three quarters of an inch so far, with just a couple of higher spots in southeast Ohio. KEY MESSAGE 2... A secondary cold front crosses Friday into Saturday leading to chances for more showers across the area, especially across southeast Ohio and northern West Virginia. Much cooler air will move in behind the cold front for the weekend. As high pressure builds in later in the weekend and into the next work week, nighttime temperatures are expected to get cold enough for frost and freezing temperatures. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A cold front is pushing across the area this morning. This will provide some MVFR ceilings, with brief IFR possible, possibly longer in the higher elevations of the mountains. Showers will taper off from west to east. Ceilings will improve later in the day, becoming VFR in southeast Ohio, northeast Kentucky and western West Virginia. In and near the mountains, conditions will improve to VFR Thursday night. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Ceilings could be briefly lower (IFR) near the cold front. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 11/05/26 UTC 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 EST 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H M M M H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H L H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L H L M H EKN CONSISTENCY H H L H H H H M M H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H L H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M H M AFTER 12Z FRIDAY... IFR conditions possible in river valley fog each night starting Saturday night. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RPY AVIATION...RPY