387
FXUS61 KRLX 080050
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
850 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated the chances of precipitation to better represent current
radar trends.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Periods of showers and storms expected through Saturday,
   and again during the new work week. Localized instances of
   flash flooding remain possible during these times, with a
   possible uptick in the severe weather threat next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Showers and thunderstorms firing up early this afternoon with
the help of a weak mid/upper-level short wave trough moving
through the area, and perhaps a subtle inverted surface trough,
will continue becoming more numerous amid the afternoon heating
and destabilization. With rich moisture content, evinced by PW
values of 1.5 to 2.0 inches, and somewhat slow motion, localized
flash flooding is possible.

The short wave was one of a series along the southern edge of a
long wave trough that kind of angles from central Canada south-
southeastward to the Ohio Valley early this afternoon. While
thunderstorms may tend to wane in intensity and coverage after
sunset this evening, additional short waves/convective
complexes keep the thunderstorm threat going through tonight and
Saturday, with a diurnal uptick in coverage and intensity again
Saturday afternoon.

River valley fog is possible overnight tonight into Saturday
morning, most likely, and most persistent Saturday morning
where thunderstorms occur this afternoon or evening.

The eastern U.S. trough position moves to or just off the east
coast early next week, allowing a west to northwest mid/upper-
level flow to take hold over the forecast area. After a brief
reprieve in response to this Sunday into Monday as weak surface
high pressure become established, and PW values drop into the
1.0-1.5 inch range, the Ad Nauseam of daily thunderstorms
returns Monday afternoon or evening, as the surface high gives
way to low level southwest flow beneath the mid/upper-level
west to northwest flow increasing PW values back up into the
1.5 to 2.0 inch range.

While localized flooding will again be a threat given relatively
slow storm motion and high PW values, increased shear associated
with the aforementioned flow pattern at times may increase the
severe weather threat in the form of a damaging wind potential
early next week.

The Weather Prediction Center has the forecast area in a
Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall through Saturday night,
then after the break on Sunday, they place northern portions of
the forecast area in a Marginal Risk Monday, and then throughout
the forecast area next Tuesday, with a Slight Risk area nudging
in from the west along the Ohio RIver. The orientation shift to
west-northwest to east-southeast early in the next work week
reflects the west-northwest mid/upper level flow.

In a large expansion from the Middle Atlantic to the south-
central Plains in the midday update, the Storm Prediction
Center has the forecast area in a Marginal Risk for Severe
Thunderstorms this afternoon into this evening, and then just
general thunderstorm for the weekend. The Storm Prediction
Center has introduced a 15% Severe Thunderstorm Risk in a west
to east orientation north and northwest of the forecast area,
for Monday, and allude to a damaging wind potential associated
with a west to east front and west-noprthwest mid-level flow
through Day 8, next Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Some showers and thunderstorms will continue to cause
restrictions this evening. Outside of the precipitation, expect
VFR conditions.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible later
tonight. A light southerly wind will prevent fog in all but the
deepest mountain valleys.

Additional showers and thunderstorms could move through Saturday
morning, gradually shifting southeastward into southeastern West
Virginia and southwestern Virginia by Saturday afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of showers and
thunderstorms could vary. Timing, intensity, and location of
fog tonight could vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            SAT 08/08/26
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    M    L    L    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
Brief IFR restrictions are possible with daily showers and thunderstorms,
primarily during the afternoon and evening hours. IFR is also possible
in valley fog each night, especially in areas that received rainfall
the previous day.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RPY/TRM
AVIATION...RPY